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Comments on Covid-19 -- A White Paper - To @RealDonaldTrump and @CDC
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User Info Covid-19 -- A White Paper - To @RealDonaldTrump and @CDC in forum [Market-Ticker-Nad] *
Tickerguy
Posts: 179087
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Tristan - I pointed this out back in late spring; on the RNA sequencing publicly uploaded out of Italy it was blatantly obvious that the virus could NOT have come there in early January. Flatly impossible.

But explaining how viral parent->daughter stuff works requires someone take certain things on faith or that they have the necessary background to understand entropy chains. This doesn't require any knowledge of anything at all; simply the fact that the antigens are there proves previous infection.

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Generalwelfare
Posts: 6
Incept: 2020-10-23

MidWest
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Thanks Karl,

Just a couple math questions maybe you can clear up:

You stated that there is a 3 in 100,000 risk of the average person dying. If we figure 8 billion people, and 60% will get infected (herd immunity at the assumed R0), 4.8 billion will see the infection. IF 3/100,000 without comorbidity are assumed to die based on extrapolation of the NYC Coroner data, that means 144,000 people without comorbidity are expected to die before the virus runs it's course. All other deaths are expected to be because of the aforementioned comorbidities.

Is this correct? or am I missing a step/do I have a wrong assumption. Based on the extrapolation and scenario specified.

Thanks! Been passing the Ivermection and this to my sis who works in a local hospital, she is passing to doctors.

FYI, their "covid response leader" or whatever just said that of all the hospital personnel who are/have been infected with covid, "NONE WERE INFECTED AT WORK"... lol, apparently covid does not transmit at his hospital. Even the Mayo found a better excuse than that...
Tickerguy
Posts: 179087
Incept: 2007-06-26
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That's correct @Generalwelfare.

Now of course more people DO die, because some people do in fact have morbidities. But -- that assumes the current "Standard of Care", which is "go home until you choke."

For a person with no co-morbidities the odds of "choking" are extremely low. But for someone with them those odds go up a lot. This is where treatment, especially early treatment and prophylaxis, matters because if you never get to the "choke" stage by definition you do not die.

I only care about serious morbidity (e.g. in the hosital) and dead. Everything else is noise, and in fact infections that are not serious are to the public good since they build herd immunity in the population at large. A person who has a silent infection or a minimally-symptomatic one is actually helping everyone else.

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Generalwelfare
Posts: 6
Incept: 2020-10-23

MidWest
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And then there is this...

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/covid-....

yellow stars for those who are non-vaccinated?
Lrs
Posts: 512
Incept: 2009-02-04

Missouri
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This should be required reading for every governor, mayor, or other policy wonk...It is easy to read and understand.
Great job, Karl.

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Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigues of supporting it.
― Thomas Paine
Jack_crabb
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@Lrs - Nope, still probably too complicated for the tyrannical ****s.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Lrs
Posts: 512
Incept: 2009-02-04

Missouri
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@Jack:
Yeah, you are probably right. Cannot have facts get in the way of their tyranny.

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Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigues of supporting it.
― Thomas Paine
Spazznout
Posts: 2268
Incept: 2009-04-15

Columbus, Ohio
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Karl

Is it ok to distribute this in it entirety with out edits in a more public manner???????

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"In a land without Rule of Law even a sane man who desecrates the state must be made to look crazy. "
Rubicon Jan. 9, 2011 blog post.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable."
Drifter
Posts: 973
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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If roles were reversed and Biden was trying to hang on to his presidency, would Dem Inc and the press do what they are doing now or would they be encouraging rebellion?

I'm starting to think that this covid bull**** is a way to keep Trump supporters off the streets.

Thecynical
Posts: 54
Incept: 2009-08-16

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Thanks for the paper!
GSU researchers say new drug completely suppresses COVID-19 transmission
https://www.wsbradio.com/news/local/atla....
Zappafan
Posts: 5628
Incept: 2007-11-30

Atlanta
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@Generalwelfare that is some seriously troubling development. If as it appears they plan on putting together a central database of everyone who got the vaccine, we're in for some truly difficult times ahead.

Once that data gets to third parties it is game over time and the shooting needs to start.

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The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue .. @ the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they'll just take down the scenery, they'll pull back the curtains, they 'll move the tables & chairs out of the way & you'll see the brick wall at the back of the theater/FZ
Tickerguy
Posts: 179087
Incept: 2007-06-26
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@Spazznout - yes.

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Royhobbs
Posts: 33
Incept: 2020-08-17

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TG-
You argue that in Sevier for example, there are 5,000 cases and extrapolate to 50,000 true cases because of the 10:1 ration of original (and still standing) predictions of actual cases to "known/tested/counted" cases, and you then say well that adds up to 80% immunity with the 30% pre-existing/cross immunity. This I think also relates to the 1.5-2.0% threshold where the curve dropped dramatically but doesn't seem to work anymore. Isn't it possible that the ratio needs to be adjusted downward at this point since so many more tests and cases have occurred? Seems to me the 10:1 ratio made more sense 7-8 months ago and tens of millions of tests ago...
Royhobbs
Posts: 33
Incept: 2020-08-17

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to clarify, I understand and agree cases are exaggerated but I'm just saying it seems to be a function of both data sets being wrong - cases overstated, ratio overstated?
Tickerguy
Posts: 179087
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There is no evidence for that @Royhobbs. That ratio was pretty-well established by serological testing early on, and absent something changing in the virus itself, which would be detected by RNA sequencing, there's utterly no science behind declaring "and then someone waved a magic wand."

Since every survey of pre-existing T-cell recognition has come in within a decent confidence band (~30-50%, although in Europe there have been some that have been higher) as well if you take the lower end you're giving the math all the help it deserves -- and you still end up wildly off the top of the suppression range.

That has only one reasonable hypothesis left -- a HUGE percentage of the alleged "positives" aren't. This is trivially provable one way or another by the government too by finger-sticking everyone 2 weeks after they call them positive. That's $2 on top of the $100 the PCR test runs, so for 2% you get an absolutely iron-clad and scientifically-defensible accuracy check on your tests.

They're not doing it.

Gee, what REASONABLE explanation is there for that given that even Fauci says that only 3% of the positives at Ct35 can be cultured and thus are infectious -- and yet all the labs are running either 40 or even 45 cycles?

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Erroldo
Posts: 481
Incept: 2013-09-12

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Now CNN media is reporting there will be plans to make sure vaccination cards will be issued. See where this could be going? Definitely a federal database? How will this be abused in the name of public good?
Jack_crabb
Posts: 13071
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Quote:
How will this be abused in the name of public good?


They have already abused the citizenry beyond the pale. Two weeks until they figure out what Covid was is now 10 ****ing months.

"Public good" my ass. These **********s can take their mask orders, their quarantine orders and their vaccines and shove them straight up their stupid tyrannical asses.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Frieza
Posts: 111
Incept: 2019-03-09

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Zappafan wrote..
If as it appears they plan on putting together a central database of everyone who got the vaccine, we're in for some truly difficult times ahead.

This already exists. I'm not sure if there was a manual process before, but healthcare providers were mandated to start sending their immunization records to the state CDCs electronically around 2011 as part of ARRA (though I believe planning first began under GW Bush's eHealth initiative). It's just a matter of adding the COVID products to the dictionary once a code is defined.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/ii....

The ability to query the registry for a person's immunization history is also there. It's generally done through a webservice, so if it's decided that this information is fair game for private companies then all the CDCs have to do is add a COVID-specific message type that returns a simple Y or N response and start issuing credentials to the chosen ones (or be lazy and just give them access to your full immunization record and let the client side deal with parsing it). Not quite as easy as flipping a switch, but I could see widespread implementation inside of a year. Faster if states start mandating this as part of lockdown protocols (remember how fast they organized the distancing measures in supermarket chains?).

The Krogers and Walmarts will probably just look at your paper card and wave you through, though. eVerification will be for bigger things like travel and school registration. At least until there's a mandatory phone app to replace the cards. Or I guess they could print a QR code of the query arguments on the back of the cards for the gatekeeper to scan.
Tickerguy
Posts: 179087
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When you can't buy groceries without that it's well beyond the time to turn your heart black as coal.

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Eleua
Posts: 19178
Incept: 2007-07-05
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N 47.72/ W 122.55
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Won't Black people be unfairly disadvantaged by having to show they are immunized? Isn't this racist?

(voter ID...)

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Diversity + proximity = WAR
As predicted, ivermectin is the new toilet paper. - LQ
The level of abject evil afoot in our world is well beyond everyones normalcy bias. It is incomprehensible.
That kind of sums up the last month since the election, a giant amber alert for Trump's balls. - Davkj1
Jack_crabb
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Well, the events of this year certainly have mine a darker shade of grey...

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Royhobbs
Posts: 33
Incept: 2020-08-17

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sorry TG, I wasn't saying the pre-existing immunity percentage is off, I agree with the premise that it's somewhere in the 30% or more with a reasonable confidence.

what I was talking about was the 6-8 month old premise that the true cases equals 10:1 of the reported cases. isn't it reasonable to assume the 10:1 ration should be less now that there have been tens of millions of tests and theoretically millions of cases? it seemed reasonable to use the 10:1 ration way back when, when testing was just getting started but now?
Tickerguy
Posts: 179087
Incept: 2007-06-26
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@Royhobbs - No.

Silent infections (asymptomatic) will never be caught, statistically-speaking.

In Japan the asymptomatic ratio appears to be close to 100:1! There is a relatively-recent (September) serological survey out of Tokyo that strongly suggest (underpowered, so the CI is wide) that 50% of the city has been infected (!!!) yet look at the "cases" and deaths in Japan. That's a city with an INSANE population density, yet nobody is dying.

It's not age or certain specific morbidities either; Japan has a somewhat-higher rate of both hypertension and diabetes than we do, and is OLDER in population strata. Well now.

There's is exactly zero evidence that the asymptomatic ratio is under the original proposed; in fact all the evidence is that it is understated, but I refuse to apply that as a hypothesis without something solid to do it with. Nonetheless that's their number, not mine.

Further the very definition of "infectious disease" is that you can CULTURE whatever it is in the person you test "positive." If you can't then the claim is a lie. Period. Yet the science is that only 3% of the samples at Ct35 can be cultured, and at Ct40 it is a statistical zero.

That in turn means that at Ct40 you're picking up cross-contamination in virtually every sample where the person is not atypically symptomatic. And since Covid-19 has symptom patters that intersect with other viruses, including common flu, rhinoviruses, etc -- unless you CULTURE IT or look at it under a SEM and identify it conclusively as Covid, absent atypical symptoms (e.g. CT with "ground glass" infiltrates in the lungs, loss of taste and/or smell, etc) there's simply no way to claim that a given "positive" really is.

The proof is easy -- if it REALLY IS Covid-19 then in 2 weeks you'll be IgG positive. Every time. If you're not, it wasn't Covid.

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Notanexpat_tom
Posts: 190
Incept: 2020-07-06


Banned
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So did the testing methodology change? Maybe I missed this in the doc, and I am just blind but something doesn't make sense here.

Let's take the numbers they provided at face value, there was a spike and then a decline even as testing was ramping up, before the new waves of positive.

So what changed? If the testing was equally as flawed the entire time, we should have never seen a decline in cases, if anything we should have only continued to see a rise, but we clearly saw waves and corresponding hospitalizations during the same periods that have mapped proportionally.

So what am I missing here?
Frieza
Posts: 111
Incept: 2019-03-09

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Tickerguy wrote..
When you can't buy groceries without that it's well beyond the time to turn your heart black as coal.

I still don't think they have the balls to actually cross the red line. Not this time around, anyway. It's looking like we will at least see travel restrictions, and some of the bluer states might mandate it for school attendance (MA recently used COVID as an excuse to make the flu shot mandatory, so obviously science has no bearing on policy), but I don't think any state will make it compulsory for adults without some kind of exemption. Employers might - we've seen plenty of companies virtue signal themselves to death for less.

There's a yellow line in there somewhere, though. Something that would make plain that they have every intention of crossing the red line in the not-too-distant future. Something that would not be justification for most people to start checking off their dance card, but would serve as a clear warning to finish filling it out. That line will be in different places for different people, of course. Grocery stores and schools are probably well across it for most, even if online alternatives or conscientious exemptions were available.

I've been dreading this all year. The foot is in the air and I'm anxious to see where it lands.
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