@Zappafan - Yes, there was SOME excess death rate March -> May. However, since then there has been a statistical zero in that regard; if it had continued then the current-year line would have continued to deviate downward below the channel instead of re-entering it and staying there. It did not.

Once you're dead you don't come back to life, thus your downward impact on SSA payouts is permanently. If there is an outsize event of that sort among older Americans that is not part of the ordinary pattern it absolutely will be visible in that data as to exactly when it occurs since those are m/o/m deltas, and thus even quite-small differences overall will show up there immediately.

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