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2024-04-21 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 358 references
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Screams the headlines in various media: "Oh nos, H5N1 is 50% fatal in humans, but there's nothing to fear as so far there are only two  human cases -- but we have detected it in cows and cats, so here it comes."

Ok folks, a few facts.

First, avian influenza is really nasty if you're a chicken.  It is especially nasty if you're a chicken confined into a small space for maximum egg-laying capacity and one of the other birds in there is sick.  The reason they kill all the birds in such a circumstance in a given facility when that happens is that a huge percentage of them will die anyway and waiting for it to burn out and leave however many survivors means you can't replace the dead ones with more live ones (they'll simply get it and many of them will die too) and your egg production goes to ****, obviously.  Thus the fastest way through the problem is to cull them all and replace and the modest lifetime of a laying hen (and even less by a lot for a meat chicken) means the conferred immunity in the survivors is almost-entirely worthless.

However, this is typically not really a threat to anything else because the immune system in a bird is very different than the immune system in a mammal such as a cow, dog, cat, pig -- or human.  Thus while you can detect virus in any of them in their nose as we saw with Covid using a PCR test does not tell you that the virus is live and reproducing at a level sufficient to cause disease; you would have to culture for that and that both takes time and is expensive, so "detection" via such a test is bull****.  By definition for something to be diseased it must have some disorder or symptom of metabolic disruption; mere detection of viral fragments does not tell you anything at all.  Indeed even detecting virus in something like raw cow's milk tells you nothing about whether the cow is diseased or you would be if you drank it.  We have viruses (and  bacteria) all through and around us all the time without producing disease; a single gram of feces contains billions of bacteria and viruses in a healthy animal, including humans.  It is only when your body's immune system becomes overwhelmed to the point of physical impact on your bodily systems that you, or any other entity, are in fact diseased.

Second, if the virus is 50% fatal in humans then why is it that despite huge numbers of people working around birds and other animals allegedly "infected" the single documented human symptomatic case resulted in conjunctivitis -- that is, red around the eyes for a bit?  A virus that is 50% fatal and airborne in a chicken coop or dairy barn should have infected and killed half the people working there and obviously that has not and is not happening.  One dude got..... pink eye from being infected.  Whoopie-deal, he was uncomfortable for a bit, now has immunity, and is fine.

That is, given what we know about avian influenza it is in fact almost impossible for non-birds to actually get symptomatically ill from it, say much less be killed by it.  Further, getting it and having a few non-serious symptoms confers immunity at least in part so what's the problem?

You do remember all the PCR hysteria from the last four years, yes?  You also do remember that if you crank up the PCR cycle count high enough you will detect said fragments in huge numbers of things that are not in fact ill and never will get ill because what you're detecting is what they picked up in the environment and not something that is actively replicating in their nasal passages with any sort of efficiency.  Only the latter can produce disease or be transmitted to anyone else.

Further, the facts are that avian influenza is neither new or uncommon.  It happens all the time; its a respiratory virus and its natural reservoir is, as the name implies, birds.  There are a lot of birds and as a result there will always be avian influenza; like all viruses if an infection manages to get to another victim before the first one either shakes it or dies, it continues onward.  With somewhere between fifty and hundreds of billions of birds on the planet  (somewhere between a half-dozen and fifty per human; yeah, we're that uncertain how many there are) there is zero possibility of us ever getting rid of this sort of virus and as with all other respiratory viruses it reassorts itself among hosts all the time when it happens to get into a bird that has some other viral infection at the same time.  That's how viruses mutate, absent human tampering.

This is where the next important fact comes from: Zoonosis is statistically so far down the probability curve with avian influenza it has to be rated as roughly as likely as an asteroid killing us all next week because otherwise, with this wild imbalance in the population of the two types of animal we would have been, through the ages, relentlessly assaulted by these zoonotic viruses and, since modern medicine is quite new we'd all have been dead before we were born.

Now let's contrast with swine, which we know have a decent immune congruence with humans (thus experiments to use them for organ sources, insulin and similar) and a history of zoonosis.  H1N1 in particular, we are pretty sure, got to humans via that path -- that was the 1918 version of flu that whacked a huge number of people and it has come around several times since, including in late 2019 and early 2020, and I personally got it by the way -- it is damn nasty but I'm not dead, am I?  Why didn't it kill a huge number of people in late 2019?  Because influenza, in humans, usually doesn't directly kill -- it is the secondary bacterial infections that do, and we now have antibiotics we didn't have in 1918 -- thus those infections can be managed where before you either fought it off on your own or you died.  There are perhaps 800 million swine in the world or about ten humans per pig as compared with somewhere between five and fifty birds per human.

In other words if the zoonotic risk was even one hundredth that of swine we'd all have all been repeatedly screwed by this and we're not -- the reason is simply that the immune system of a bird and its biome environment are different enough that zoonosis is so far down the list of risks that its safely ignored.

But enter the people in our nation and elsewhere funded by our government who like to play with genetics -- particularly viral genetics.  You'd think they learned something from screwing around with coronaviruses, but you'd be wrong.

Nobody has been arrested for what happened with Covid despite the clear evidence that it was known what they were doing and the congruence between Wuhan's original strain in the "wild" and a technology transfer in the months prior back into the US, which is documented, is genetically an almost exact match.  We also know that multiple people, including many in government agencies, directly lied as to what happened surrounding and immediately preceding Covid showing up.  While we can't exactly arrest people in China we sure can do so here and we can destroy the institutions that were involved in this, which directly and indirectly led to more US deaths than every war we've been involved in since WWII along with promulgating a dangerous countermeasure that we now know had material evidence of its harm deliberately concealed during the original trials.

We've done none of that and that is all of our responsibility because if the government won't arrest people when their actions lead to a biological agent's release into the environment, whether directly or otherwise, then who's responsibility is it to do so?  The ****ing tooth fairy?

Worse, every single one of our Congresspeople and the entire Executive currently in power never mind Trump's administration which was in power when that started and was in power when the proposal was submitted to DARPA and turned down, thus it WAS KNOWN when he was in office, have done nothing to stomp on this crap even on a forward basis, say much less appropriately prosecuting those involved in what happened the last time.

Again, I will note that there is no evidence that avian influenza has or can naturally cross into humans and you had better drill that into your damned head because it is fact and that fact is why you are here and alive right here, right now.  Anyone who claims otherwise is a lying sack of crap and is likely trying to cover up their own criminal acts or complicity and even conspiracy with someone else's actions.

Therefore if it happens and there is such an epidemic human intervention is, well beyond reasonable doubt responsible and the United States Congress, each and every member, along with every member of federal and state Executive departments including but not limited to so-called "law enforcement" that have refused to arrest anyone for any of the bull**** over the last four years and in fact both funded and directly enabled it will have been directly responsible and must be held PERSONALLY responsible and liable for said outbreak and all harm that comes.

These people know damned well what they're playing with because it went wrong the last time and there is a statistically ZERO probability, much less than with a coronavirus, that such an event if it does happen this time, was of natural origin.

Those in positions of authority have the power to put a final and absolute stop to this crap right here, right now and forevermore and if they don't and the statistically impossible "natural thing" occurs this time there is ZERO question that it was man-engineered and released through either negligence or intent.

NO MORE ******NED EXCUSES.

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2024-04-20 08:40 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 533 references
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Israel "stopped the Iranian attack" so it is claimed.

Except the US has taken credit for a huge number of the intercepts, including the ballistic missiles.

You do realize how this works, right?

The domestic establishment, including the politicians and every firm that makes the elements of war, their employees and family members, are always legitimate military targets.  That means Lockheed-Martin, BAE Systems, etc. etc. etc.

Oh, I know you claim not and Geneva this and Laws of War that.

You're full of **** and if you are sleeping well at night and in that position you're stupid and may be dead stupid.

Realize something right now: America has been privileged for both the World Wars and, until fairly recently, most of the modern stuff too.  We're not privileged because we're smart -- we are privileged because there is a huge ****ing ocean between us and others, and we've yet to******off the people that actually border us enough for them to be on the other side.

That's gone now because we no longer police our borders and as a result there are likely tens of thousands of sympathizers or outright belligerents in our nation right now, all over the place, and we not only don't know who they are we don't where they are either.

We interned Japanese Americans in WWII for this reason.  We did not know if or how many of them were interested in killing the families of government officials or the families and persons making material for the war.  We had no ****ing idea and no way to know with certainty so **** that **** into the camp you go.

"Oh that was so terrible!"

Yes it was: Welcome to what actual War IS, jackass.

Want to go back further?  Let's!  You all had US History, right?  You know, the Revolution?  1776 and all?  Yeah, that.

What happened at Concord and Lexington Green?  There was shooting.  The British retreated.  The Laws of War at the time called for armies to face each other and battle it out like gentlemen.  What did the Colonists do?

They hid in the woods and sniped at the British who were retreating, which was a wild-eyed violation of the expected behavior of combating military forces at the time.  Its also a big part of why America exists.

How about Iraq?  Did the "insurgents" face down our tanks and planes in a straight-up fight?  Oh **** no.  They planted improvised explosives where they thought we might go and triggered them under unarmored vehicles, blowing up our dudes.  Was that "unfair"?  Who the **** cares -- it's a ******ned war you idiot!

"Rosie The Riveter" was part of why we won WWII.  Without planes, bombs, tanks, guns, ammunition and similar you lose.  Going after the civilians who make such things and the government officials who fund them and operate the various government machinery that makes it all work, you know, people like who run FedWire so you can get paid (aka all of The Federal Reserve and FDIC employees!), all the major bank employees, executives and their families and similar are all legitimate target in a war because all of them make it possible to prosecute said war.

Yeah, that.

"Oh they'd never...."  Uh huh, sure they wouldn't.

What tiny percentage of the several million so-called "migrants" have to be interested in that eventuality and willing to do that sort of thing before you decide that it was really ****ing stupid and is likely to be dead stupid?

Would you like to fix the stupid now or after your spouse is raped, murdered and your children are chopped into little pieces -- since we refuse to keep our fingers out of other people's pies -- and conflicts?

That's what I thought.

PS: Most personal and business insurance, including homeowners, vehicles and similar, explicitly excludes Acts of War and Terrorism.  If those people we, including you, let into our nation burn your house and that is deemed related to the various wars and such we are involved in around the world you are not insured for that loss.

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2024-04-19 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in 2nd Amendment , 310 references
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You've probably seen that Biden is about to have a final rule be published on the so-called "gun show loophole."

It isn't actually a loophole, and the rule does nothing to impact actual private-party sales of firearms which are legal under certain circumstances.

What it does do is stomp -- hard -- on people claiming to be private sellers who are actually in the business of buying and selling guns but have not registered to do so.

Let's me stipulate up front that I'm a staunch 2nd Amendment Supporter as written.  But I'm also a strict Constitutionalist and the Constitution clearly gives the Federal Government the right to regulate interstate commerce, and these situations quite-clearly are that.

So from a Constitutional point of view I have no quarrel with it.

What we do know is that criminals don't tend to go buy their firearms at a gun store.  They often engage someone who is foolish enough to trust them to make the purchase for them (which is seriously illegal and will get you a nice stay in the slammer if caught, and if the gun is used in a crime and recovered you will get caught), they steal them (obviously someone who intends to stick up a liquor store or otherwise commit a crime isn't squeamish about stealing things) or they purchase them "under the table" from someone who doesn't care about any of the above.  Most true private sellers of lawfully-owned firearms do care because while you generally can't be thrown in prison for selling someone a gun privately that you have no reason to suspect is prohibited or will do an illegal thing with it you still get to defend against the prosecution and related costs which is very likely to occur.  Who among us wants to pay a lawyer $10,000 because you sold someone an old $200 shotgun?

Someone who is running a "back door" business, on the other hand, knows they're breaking the law already and can be jailed for it.  They thus likely don't much care about what the buyer intends to do -- or who they are.  It's just basic logic when you get down to it and the prevalence of this issue has been the subject of some study -- such as here.

Let's separate this out from the tactics of agencies, because I know there will be people who want to go there.  Ruby Ridge, Waco and more (including recently) make clear that these folks don't give a crap about this thing called "Due Process"; they want "their man" and dead is just fine with them, along with anyone who happens to be there at the time -- including in more than one case sleeping children who obviously had nothing to do with the original issue.  This has to be stopped and our government won't do it, so if you want my view of it that comes back to what I've repeatedly said: Only when the cops FEAR the outcome of such will it change, and that means that any sort of "no-knock" raid has to result in the target of same adopting a "shoot them in the face instantly for as many of them as you can get" response because from the clear history over the last several decades you're dead the moment it begins and they have no intention of arresting you or allowing due process and any sort of trial, and the government has never thrown these jackasses in prison for doing it either, so the only wat to deter that crap for the NEXT GUY is to make sure as many of them go to Hell with you as you can and make sure their families cannot hold an open-casket funeral too so they are forced to wake up in a cold sweat at night thinking about whether being dead and their children having to deal with the back of their head being blown off is worth their big-ball hero-combat style bull**** -- which has ZERO legal defense.  Janet Reno should have been executed for that **** at Waco, never mind the Ruby Ridge in which Weaver, who survived it, got $3 million for the unlawful conduct of the agents.

What unlawful conduct?  Well, for one the warrant was fraudulent in that part of the justification was a claim that Weaver had fired on a police helicopter.  That was later proved to be a lie in that both the pilot and agents on the ground knew there had been no shots fired.  This sort of outrageously fraudulent and in fact felonious conduct by the government was never punished with prison sentences as is absolutely required when one commits perjury.  If you think this sort of falsehood has been stopped why would any government agent or agency cut that crap out when there is never criminal sanction laid on those who engage in it?

The facts are that except for active hostage situations or where someone is already shooting at others there is absolutely zero reason for these sorts of raids unless we are willing to permit law enforcement to execute people on a summary basis, and if we ARE then the same rules should apply for everyone else with them as the targets.  Even in the case of a so-called "drug investigation" where the concern is that the suspect might flush the evidence (that's hard to do with guns, obviously) its stupid because everyone leaves wherever they are to go do routine things from time to time and arresting someone when they do leave to go to work, the grocery store or wherever is both easy and preserves said evidence.

Nonetheless this specific change, which likely does comport both with Statute and clearly is Constitutional -- provided there actually are goods moving across state lines -- is not one I have a material issue with so long as we allow the Federal Government to regulate such commerce in the first place.

Now if you want to have that debate then let's have at it.  From my point of view the old Sears Catalog approach is the right one, and yes, when I was a boy you could literally order guns from the "Big Book" that came around at Thanksgiving for Christmastime as that was perfectly legal until the 1968 GCA.  But so long as that 1968 law stands and it was passed by Congress, and Congress clearly can regulate interstate commerce per the Constitution, there you are.

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2024-03-04 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 434 references
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I'm rather tired of this and am going to go down a short litany of facts which not even Musk, with his so-called "commitment" to free speech, will permit.

But first, receipts on the claim that Elon was and is lying in that he now admits his platform will censor FACTS:

 

Note that there are claims this "only applies to Brazil" due to some court case, but as you can see there is no distinction made in the cited post.  Therefore, if this is the case then let's see it in the formal TOS so it is in fact a tort IF IT IS A LIE.

Let me be clear:  Your sex/gender is determined at the moment of fusion of the two gametes no matter your species among sexually-reproducing organisms -- including but certainly not limited to human beings.  It cannot be changed from that instant in time forward, ever, no matter what you do because every single cell in that organism carries forward that determination as every single cell comes from that first cell's division into two.

Said organism is either male or female in every single case.  Yes, there are cases in which an error occurs and you get more than one or two "X" chromosomes, or for that matter only one X and no others at all, for example; the scientific name for that is "intersex."  This is quite rare but does happen -- its a genetic accident and properly characterized as an error, but it does occur.

This is not a "disease" but it is a genetic mutation and while a few of those people can in fact either sire or carry a child, its rare.  Most of the time if you're in that category you're sterile.  XXY, for example, is called Klinefelter's syndrome and typically results in a micropenis; most men with this produce little or no sperm as they also produce little testosterone.  But these people are male, despite having two "X" chromosomes (because they also have a "Y".)  Unfortunately most boys with this also have serious intellectual challenges.

Likewise someone who is born with "XXX" is female.  Many women with this have no outward symptoms but some have learning problems, seizures, and sometimes serious kidney abnormalities and premature menopause (ovarian failure at an uncharacteristic age.)  However, such a person is female.

There is nothing, however, anyone can do to change any of this from the first cellular division at conception forward.  A male, whether ordinarily XY or some combination that includes a "Y", can never become female.  A female, that is a person without a "Y" chromosome, can never become male.

From the moment of conception your neural, circulatory and other body systems develop differently depending on that chromosomal arrangement. This cannot be altered beyond that point no matter what you do; it is what it is.  A woman's body develops from conception with the blood supply capacity for a uterus and the child that may develop in same which no man ever has as just one example.  There is no way to create a female sexual response in a person conceived as a man because the neural connections are simply not there and never will be, and vice-versa, so even if we could fashion functional physical components and we can't even successfully do that.  As a result if you are conceived male you can never have a female sexual response, and if conceived female you can never have a man's sexual response.  It is not possible as from your first cellular division forward the neural connections for the other sex never develop and thus are not present.

As such sex is not "assigned at birth" and anyone saying that should be immediately and permanently committed to a rubber room; your sex is observed at birth (if Mom never had an ultrasound) but in most cases since women do it is observed while said child is still in-utero because the penis, if said child is male, is visible.  No penis?  It's a girl.  Penis?  It's a boy.  Period.

This doesn't mean you can't be unhappy you are male or female, or that your particular chromosomal assortment is unpleasant in your mind -- of course you can be unhappy with that just as you can be unhappy that your skin is white, black, brown or for that matter, if we discover little green men at some point, green.

But that you are unhappy with a fact does not make it untrue -- it just means you're unhappy.  As an adult you are free to undertake whatever actions you wish in an attempt to be happy (thus "pursuit of happiness") but you have no capacity or right to compel any other person to assist you in any way whatsoever, including "recognizing" what you desire but is physically impossible.  To demand otherwise or to enforce otherwise is to enslave someone else and worse, force them to lie which is never acceptable nor may it be compelled under any circumstance.

In fact someone who tries to compel you to speak a factual lie is violating both the Constitution and your rights which predate said Constitution and thus, by any reasonable standard has forfeited all their rights.  Yes, all of them.

Further, if you refuse to accept physical facts you are mentally defective and society must assume you will refuse to accept other physical facts which renders you manifestly dangerous when it comes to any task where the evaluation of physical facts is necessary for anyone else's safety.

No problem can ever be resolved without stating things that are facts.  We can debate that which is not a fact, but putting those opinions on the table in the open is how we find and reinforce facts and demote and ultimately destroy lies.  This is an essential part of any civil society.

Elon seems to think he has the right to abrogate that.  He does not, particularly after claiming that he stands for "free speech."  Neither does any other government official or private party.  A private party may tell you that your statement of facts is inconsistent with their private property rights and free association and thus demand you leave provided they did not make a former representation that you had the right to speak freely or they became, due to their position in society, an effective public square where such right of control of association has been lost as a consequence of their for-profit operation of what amounts to said public square.

Exactly where is that line?  That's a good debate but large social media sites are clearly under this purview in that they form an effective oligopoly and further give their membership the means to block communication with those who disagree.

Once you reach that critical threshold and provide the means to block said interaction you no longer can make a reasonable claim to "freedom to not associate in gross" because each person can choose on their own.

On a societal level this gets even more-serious when facts are concealed on purpose, as they are here.

For example, here: https://www.kctv5.com/2024/03/03/hundreds-fighting-six-flags-turns-into-firefight-with-officers-1-hospitalized/

It is incredibly disappointing that our community is disrupted at public events throughout the region by groups of underaged youth. Just like other venues in the area, we are committed to keeping this type of trouble outside our park and off our property. There was police activity involving gunshots; we want to confirm there was no shooting at our property or parking lot. This took place on South Service Road that is not owned or operated by Six Flags. However, we join our community and the Atlanta region in our commitment to safety and security. We won’t put up with that type of activity here.”

We all know what the probable distribution of the races of the people involved were.  Oh, and while the press won't say it there is video evidence from people who were there.  Where did the guns come from among underaged persons?  It is specifically that we refuse to call out the wild over-representation in this behavior among one specific group, that being young blacksand making clear that we will not tolerate it and will throw those who commit felonies in prison irrespective of their underage status that leads to this happening.  If you say this on "X" -- or virtually any other social media -- you will get banned.  Well, I'm saying it and I don't give a **** if anyone likes it or not because it has been true for the last several decades, still is, and it won't stop until we call out the facts and demand that the government enforce the ******ned law against said persons without regard to their skin color or age and we make clear that is not a request -- either they do their job OR WE WILL on a summary basis.

Or how about this: https://rumble.com/v4glv96-senators-watch-in-disbelief-as-democrat-defends-child-sex-dolls-for-pedophi.html

Here's a Kentucky State Senator defending giving child sex dolls to pedophiles.

Remember that there are a whole bunch of people who defend this particular perversion saying that "well, you might be a minor-attracted person but you can choose to act on it."  True perhaps, but now have we decided that "acting on it" doesn't include ****ing a doll that is in the shape and size of a child?  What happens when the doll pops or is simply unavailable and the urge to act on it is still there?  Oh gee that's really hard to figure out -- right?

Or how about the fact that illegal immigrants are not "newcomers" they are criminalsNever mind that 8 USC 1324 defines as a criminal, 10 year in prison felony the following offenses related to any US and foreign persons and entities assisting said illegal aliens:

  • Attempting to bring an alien into the United States at any place other than a designated port of entry irrespective of whether said person has received authorization to enter or remain in the US or not.  Any entity or person doing so has violated said law and every person involved in promoting or enabling such illegal crossings is a felon.  
  • Transportation or movement of an alien knowing or recklessly disregarding that said person illegally entered into the United States is a criminal felony.
  • Concealing an alien knowing or with reckless disregard for their illegal entry anywhere in the United States, whether by transportation, housing (e.g. in a building) or otherwise.
  • Encouraging or inducing an alien to enter or remain in the United States, knowing or with reckless disregard for the fact that such entry is illegal, or engages in any conspiracy (e.g. combination of people or entities or planning) such acts.

For each person a party does this with where the intent is for financial gain or commercial advantage (e.g. employment, rental to such a person, etc.) the penalty is 10 years in prison.

If the violation is not for commercial or private financial gain (e.g. trafficking) the penalty is five years in prison.

If the alien commits an offense of bodily injury every person who was involved in the above gets 20 years in prison.

If the alien commits homicide the term for every person so-involved in any of the above is of any number of years up to and including life.

There is an exception for missionaries, believe it or not.  None of these people are of course.

There's more: If you merely attempt to bring an alien into the US without authorization (but fail, obviously, since the above covers if you succeed) you get one year in prison unless you do not bring said person immediately to a port of entry, in which case you get 10 (which is what the above carries, so that makes sense.)

If you knowingly hire ten or more illegal aliens within a 12 month period you get five years in prison.

Oh by the way, any conveyance used for any of this is subject to seizure and forfeiture!

So tell me, everyone, why do we tolerate the government intentionally violating this law and refusing to arrest anyone who harbors, transports, rents to, provides services to, treats medically, transports or otherwise harbors or assists anyone who is here illegally, all of which aids and abets said behavior and all of which is, under that actual law, already illegal.

These so-called "sanctuary cities" and states are in fact committing felonies and no, the elements of the State Government, private actors, NGOs, apartment and hotel owners, food vendors, transportation operators including airlines and others are not exempt from said law.  And yes this includes all the so-called "DREAMers" and every school, food vendor, lunchroom or employer who in any way assists them in being or remaining here.  It is all a serious crime.

Where was Donald Douchenozzle Trump on this?  This is not new law.  Why didn't he use it?  You know ******n well the reason he didn't use it -- he didn't want to use it because his cocksucking voters love the illegal labor that destroys your wages, any more than Biden refuses because he wants them to be given the capacity to vote for more handouts, yet you still SUCK TRUMP'S DICK even after he refused to put in prison each and every single entity that broke the above law, including every landlord and other entity who so much as gives such a person a ****ing sandwich.  Like, for example, all the farmers and other businesses who are using illegal labor.

Spare me the bull**** about "harassing" people who are, under this law, clearly felons, many of them US citizens or US corporations and government employees who are breaking the law by giving aid and comfort to said persons and harboring them, despite whatever excuse you wish to make when exactly none of them who entered here illegally have a right to be here.  Period.  Throw them all out and fry anyone in this nation who in any way assists or supports their entry or remaining here.  I don't give a **** who they are; they're criminals under the law -- and not "minor" criminals either.  End of conversation, full stop, that is the law and if the government will not enforce it then for each of those crimes not one person who is here illegally nor anyone who assists them in any way, no matter if government affiliated or not, has cause to complain if a felony is committed against THEM.

Let's continue because while this bull**** is a huge thing today its by no means the only bull**** that is ruining us and in fact in some cases killing us.

It is a fact that virtually everything in our modern civilization exists only because only competent people were hired to build and maintain same, most of which were White men, and as soon as we allowed anything other than competence to determine this process it all went to ****.

An example is Flint Michigan and their water system.  The lead feeder pipes for their water system were and are perfectly safe provided someone competent is running the system.  Why?  Because the lead pipe with proper water chemistry protects itself with a microscopic layer of oxide exactly as does aluminum when exposed to air and thus none of the lead goes into the water and poisons you.  Proof of this is that nobody got poisoned for decades until the water system shifted its source without people who knew what the **** they were doing running it keeping said chemical balance intact.  THEN kids (and adults) started getting poisoned.

The people who built the system and operated it were mostly WHITE MEN.  Flint was an industrial town FULL OF WHITE MEN who ran the city services and did so competently.  Guess who this benefited tremendously?  All the black people who lived there, roughly half the population at the time, and who were not competent to build and run all of this on their own.  This was all well and fine until incompetent people were hired to replace the competent ones who either retired, quit because they were passed over for incompetent others or were literally forced out in the name of "diversity."

Who was the mayor when the water crisis hit?  Karen Weaver, who proudly claimed to be the 5th Black Mayor of Flint and first woman to hold the office, and by the way as noted she was only the person who was there when the decades-long degeneration of competence, which most-certainly did not happen in a year or two, finally got to the point of poisoning people.  Nonetheless rather than take responsibility for it and fixing it by restoring competence in the water department she blamed others and so did Obama, who I remind you is also Black.  Either of them could have demanded competence be restored to the water department and immediately resolved the problem instead of ripping up and replacing pipes while forcing the distribution of bottled water  (at great profit to the bottlers, I'm sure, and I'll bet that was a crony set of agreements too) that wasn't poisonous.

And who was most-likely to be poisoned?  Why black kids, of course, because when the color of your skin, sex and whatever gender you think you might be this afternoon is more important than your mental firepower you tend to wind up ****ing your own people.  This was, of course, blamed on white people even though Flint first elected a Black Mayor in 1966.

Incidentally the 1950s were one of Flint's most-prosperous decades, centered in its middle-class manufacturing base and also incidentally in 1964, just before McCree's election, a massive scandal erupted over... you guessed it.... a plan to bring Lake Huron water into the city!  It was in the wake of that scandal that the city's water connection with Detroit was established.

Mayor McCree and all of his successors up until the crisis clearly did not believe having competent people run the water plant with full understanding of the supply's chemistry and any changes well in advance of them happening was the first and foremost job in order to insure the stability and safety of the water supply system in the city.  Whether that was due to lack of understanding that actual technical competence was required or willfully and intentionally hiring incompetent *******s I do not know -- but what I do know is that a bunch of black kids got poisoned as a direct result of not taking due care to make certain said chemistry requirements were met when the water source was changed.

Why is there no discussion of this?  Why don't we discuss how and why this actually happened?

Oh, that's an isolated incident eh?

Fani Willis anyone?  Yes, my first and foremost indication that Fani is incompetent at best might be her selection of "Gorilla Grip Pussy Pal" as her bluetooth device name.  That is clearly a clean indication that said person is extremely serious as a litigator and thinks with her head instead of her ****.  Never mind the apparent presentation of evidence that she was both skimming public funds indirectly for her little indiscretions with a man she hired to participate in prosecuting Trump and was ****ing him besides so one has to question whether the actual intent was to hire the best and finest to prosecute or to both get laid and have lavish vacations on the taxpayer dime while attacking a political enemy.  Of course her defense was "oh I'm Black and that's why people are after me" when it all blew up in her face.  Uh huh.

Any white person would already be under indictment for this sort of crap so sit down and shut the **** up Fani, never mind your vapid County government which, I note, the Governor has utterly failed to stomp on.  He damn well should have years ago so there goes Georgia in the "DIEEEEEVERSITY" lottery as well.  Disqualified?  Where's the rather-obviously justified indictment from the STATE Attorney General and which party do people claim has actual competent and reasonable persons running under their banner?  Looks and smells like bull**** to me.

Good thing there weren't any black kids downstream of a water plant where she was controlling the chemical balance of the water, eh?  There might have been literal **** in that supply.

Oh, doesn't this sound a lot like the Smollett case?  Why, I think it might be sort of the same crap eh?

Just these couple of examples?

Oh, maybe not.  Let's talk about New York!  Lettia James (gee, what an odd coincidence that all of these people are black?) infamously went after Trump.  Oh, and by the way, James campaigned on "getting Trump" which incidentally is about as crooked as it gets and you'd think that standing alone would disqualify her from holding office never mind Howard University revoking her JD.  Nope.  But then of course Governor ("I think with my pussy, hear it ROAR!") Hochul tries to claim "oh this was a one off", only to have James almost-immediately go after one of the largest meat-processing firms in the United States under that very same law claiming that they're "climate abusers" and by God, she's going to single-handedly save the ****ing planet!

Is this all just simple corruption or do we add in rank incompetence driven by sub-80 IQs across the board with an obvious outcome sort of like this:

Oh, that's offensive you say?  Well it might be but here's my reply:

Offended you I have, a **** I do not give.

Let's ask the question a different way:

Where is this sort of degeneration not in evidence?

You'll have a hard time with that.

We replace reliable carbon-fueled base load power plants with wind and solar which are not reliable as the wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine.  We haven't hanged a single person who did this **** anywhere even when it was proved to not work because you can't guarantee wind or sun in a given place and if that doesn't coincide with when you want power you don't get power at all.  ERCOT had its infamous freeze and they're not alone -- everyone is pulling this crap and the power companies and entities (some government run, some private sector) either have nobody in charge who is saying "heh *******S, our first job is to make ******n sure we can generate the power when the customers require it and only when that is assured can we choose other priorities" or some diversity and/or green douchebag is telling those people to sit down and shut up or be fired -- and they're running the show.

Go watch that video up a bit again as many times as it takes because that's exactly what this sort of stupid **** constitutes when it comes to intelligence and this is going to be the repeated result if we don't cut it out right ****ing now.

Oh, its just power?  Uh, no, it isn't.  We know based on simple facts that one cannot determine the long term effects of a medication without the time passing.  Its not possible, duh.  So we mandate, coerce and lie that we know something is safe when we know damn well that you can't figure out what will happen in five years until five years goes by.  If that's not deranged enough we gave the people who make this crap legal immunity and nobody hanged the politicians, the physicians, the pharmaceutical executives or all of the above even without waiting the required period of years because it is obvious that the claims are frauds as you can't figure out what will happen in a given time until the time passes.  That we now have discovered that indeed they're not "safe as promised" isn't really material in that the claim was a fraud right up front and now, given the passage of time, it is ADMITTED that the shots have killed and severely maimed people.  The only debate today is how many people got killed or maimed!

There are a couple hundred people who are alive today only due to dumb luck because someone at Boeing, Spirit (one of their contractors), both of which trumpet their "diversity initiatives" (see Boeing's and Spirit's bull**** for yourself), or someone doing work on the plane under either or both of their alleged supervision, did not install all four bolts on a hatch in one of their 737 aircraft.  Any ONE of the four bolts, nuts and cotter (or safety wire) would have held the door in place on the frame.  The NTSB has now shown (which was obvious by the way within minutes of landing when photos were posted publicly by passengers and which I commented on in a separate posting at the time) that none of the four bolts, nuts and keepers were installed.  Only dumb luck kept that door from hitting the stabilizer after it detached as it tumbled free.  Since that door masses somewhere around 70lbs if it had hit the stabilizer at a hundred knots or more of relative velocity (consider a car battery being shot at the tail of the plane at 100mph for an idea of the level of impact involved here) odds are extremely high that the stabilizer would have been severely damaged or destroyed and the entire aircraft and everyone on board would have been lost.

There have been several recent incidents between aircraft where near collisions have occurred during landing and takeoff -- and one actual impact.  The rate of these incidents recently has been stunningly high and may I remind you that a plane impacting another while landing or taking off is quite-likely to kill everyone in both aircraft.  A landing 737 comes in at about 120kts just before touchdown so how would you like to get hit if you're about to take off at 130mph because that is roughly the speed at which the collision will take place!  Is this apparent increase because we hire for diversity in the control tower and cockpit instead of for competence?  How long will it before one of those near-misses isn't a miss and a airliner full of passengers, or even two airliners, are destroyed along with everyone on board?  May I remind you that at least one of the planes usually has plenty of fuel on board to be turned into a mist and ignite on impact too.  If the impact doesn't get you the fireball probably will.

We hear of "cyber incidents" all the time.  One of the latest is a health care portal company that interconnects various providers and insurance firms.  Why is it happening in the first place and by the way why aren't the firms involved, when it is a cryptojack thing or similar, equipped with competent people who can roll back to the few hours or day before the cryptojacking got them?  Yes, you lose the couple of hours of work -- that beats being offline for days or weeks doesn't it?  Modern systems can do this if they're set up properly and if compartmentalized properly then the impact is localized to one small area anyway.  Oh, but that takes actual skill instead of a bunch of idiots over in India writing garbage code and by the way who's doing system administration and how come they're not competent enough to compartmentalize and limit this sort of damage?  Again we get to the base question: How do you expect things that require a group of people who have roughly a 115 IQ or better to operate them competently to continue working as expected when you hire people on their skin color or pronouns and don't give a crap that they have an 80 IQ or can't discern the fact that being born with a penis makes them male?

How many more examples would you like?

How about just one more?

What makes you believe that your physician actually understands anything about health?  Before you say "but mine is good even if many suck" I give you one RICHARD LEVINE who can't even discern that he is a man by the fact that he had a penis when born and further, he also can't manage his own body mass yet we are told that this person is an "expert" on human health AND WE MUST OBEY that which issues from his mouth!  What sort of mentally-defective IDIOT (that's all of us, by the way) allow anyone who can't figure out basic biological facts related to whether you're a man or a woman along with the inability to maintain reasonable body mass to make recommendations and even DICTATE POLICY MANDATES for the rest of America's people?  Has your doctor told you point-blank that Levine is both ridiculously obese and mentally deranged?  If he or she hasn't then that person is deranged too and you're insane to listen to a single thing that comes from their mouth.

How much of our civilization will survive if we keep putting people in positions of both authority and responsibility for things that we all count on working when they simply don't have the chops to do the job but are hired because they're either cheaper, their skin or sex is "correct" or they use the right pronouns?  If someone cannot tell from the presence of a penis or vagina on their body at the time of their birth if they're a man or a woman why would you believe they can accurately process anything else in their head?  Exactly how many examples of obvious failure to accurately process information do you need to see before you realize that if fantasy is permitted to intrude anywhere that matters in job performance you will have serious problems -- up to and including people becoming dead as a consequence.

Guess what?  People like me won't put up with that sort of **** and you can't make people like me, who are competent in our fields, work for you.  As those who are both competent and intelligent retire or simply say "**** you" and quit rather than coddle another's mental derangement, never mind the probability of them screwing the pooch then blaming the competent guy because he "misgendered" them, leaving you with the green-haired, pronoun-spouting person who you don't dare call "sir" or "ma'm" lest you get a complaint filed against you through HR running the water plant or the data interchange for your local hospital the odds of you getting ****ed up the ass rise precipitously.

We either stop all of this, right now, by whatever means we must, or what we currently claim to enjoy as "civilization" will collapse incrementally and each of us will get doled out our personal "find out" to go with the "**** around" the hard way.  Perhaps it will come in different ways for each of us -- we'll be hit at 130mph while waiting for take-off in a plane, drink poisoned water out of our tap at home, get an injection of **** at the doctors office that paralyzes us, gives us cancer or a heart attack, we'll freeze to death because we let the power company replace reliable carbon-based generators with wind and solar and then it will be -20F at night and calm, resulting in our power going off, our furnace will not fire and we will freeze to death and similar sorts of means of going to meet God.

Oh by the way what do you think the S&P will trade at when all this happens and for how long do you think the average 80IQ person will sit back quietly when it does before they come looking for whatever food you might have, which just might include an intent to eat you personally?

I hear Venezuelans sometimes demand the right to******young women and, if said women refuses, they just kill her and crush their skulls.  THAT is what we have degenerated to already on the illegal alien issue alone.  The next dead woman could very well be you, your wife or young daughter and yet nobody will get off their ass, demand it ALL stop NOW and enforce that demand even when the clear consequence of not doing so is possible DEATH and is on full display in your FACE.

It isn't like we had a prior display of this exact same insanity in Iowa not all that long ago with another illegal alien, is it?

Oh wait -- WE DID AND THE VICTIM'S NAME WAS MOLLIE.

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2024-03-03 09:10 by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings , 870 references
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If you've read this column for any length of time you know I'm not in any way bullish on the intermediate and longer-term path our government and fiscal policy are on.  In fact the problems go back for at least 20 years and arguably 40 in that every challenge has been met with more and more government credit emission.

Now a certain amount of this might be tolerable -- roughly that which is covered by the improvement in productivity.  In my book Leverage I argued (and still do) that even at this level its theft, because productivity doesn't improve because government improves (that is, it would be "theirs" to dole out) it improves because people improve things.

Since we cause it we should get the benefit, not some glad-handed decision coming from a state or federal legislature or, as is currently the case, not even through legislative process such as NY deciding to hand out EBT cards with huge amounts of money on them to persons who are neither citizens or who entered the US lawfully.

As you also may recall back well before I started penning this column I have pointed out that the medical system specifically, which was about 3% of GDP when Medicare was passed and about 4% when Medicaid became common, now consists of 20% of the economy and about one third of federal spending yet the tax remains right near 3% -- meaning that as the expense as grown as a piece of the whole the tax revenue has not.  The entire problem with our budget, on a simple fiscal analysis, lies here -- not in Social Security or anywhere else.  Politicians and other analysts always conflate these and its intentional; anyone can read the MTS, effectively the Federal Government's "by category" transaction summation (commonly called a "cash flow statement") and see these facts.

It is also a fact that as "medical employment" has grown virtually none of it, on a per-capita basis, has been in doctors and nurses.  In other words none of it has anything to do with actually providing medical care to human beings; the entire expansion is elsewhere.  We should not have permitted this but we have and once again nobody on either side of the aisle will do anything about this as evidenced by the last 20+ years of it.

The over-extension of asset prices of all sorts has followed from these policies.  This is not sustainable and it will break.  It has broken many times before, and it will again.  We can argue over timing, but not outcome.

Here's the important point I want to impress with this article:

When it does, and I believe it is imminent (meaning weeks or months, perhaps a year or so but I will take the under on that) it will be very tempting to try to call bottoms in the belief that the same cycle that has played out since 2000 will occur again and thus you should use the financial leverage you can obtain because you'll get wealthy if you do.

It is my considered opinion that you're foolish to take that risk because if you're wrong you will be bankrupted or worse.

Further you don't need to do that to make out ok.  That is, if you buy a house once prices collapse you don't need to take on leverage, buy five, and try to be a landlord and make a ton of money on the "appreciation" you expect to come.  Buying one where you want to live, and living in it, treating it as a consumer durable good, leaves you way ahead of the game than if you buy one now and wind up sitting on a 50% or more loss hoping prices come back up.

If you can buy business equipment for a nickel on the dollar even a modest amount of money purchases something that makes a profit because your cost of operations is cheaper than the other guy's cost.  If you take leverage and the asset does not go back up in value the other guy who doesn't do that will destroy you because the leverage costs money and he doesn't have to spend it.

Living beyond your cash earnings power is dangerous.  It has paid off for the last 20 years with the only requirement being that you be able to withstand short-term, usually less than a year or two, drawdowns.

This time the drawdown and flat-line is likely to be a decade or more -- similar to the Long Depression of the late 1800s.  If it is, and you have leverage on, you will be ruined because your earnings power will decrease but the leverage costs money and that expense is fixed for the term when you take it.

During both the Long Depression and Great Depression those who had not taken on such leverage were ultimately able to buy assets for a nickel on the dollar but that strategy only works if you do not take on leverage.  If you do and either miss the bottom or the exit from the condition does not come quickly enough you lose everything because leverage multiples the losses exactly as it does the gains and worse, if you lose half you now need a double to get back to even.

In the 1990s I was able to take advantage of a relatively minor economic downturn with cash and obtain both high-quality office space on lease and other assets.  This was a tremendous advantage.  Had I employed leverage I could have, of course, gotten much more but the risk in that was a complete wipe-out if I timed the exit wrong or had to hold through the 2000 wreck and was too far out over my skis.  I had seen that movie before as a customer of mine before MCSNet was an Internet firm who had leverage on with a quite-profitable small business out in the suburbs had his operating line get called by the bank.  He could not replace it on terms that he could meet and was immediately and entirely destroyed.

I'll point out that we had roughly 100 competitors in our local market and I knew many others in the business in other regions and areas.  Of the local competitors I know a couple of who sold out as I did at various valuations and one who stayed in, navigated the 2000 crash and now has a lot more money than I do.  Most of the rest were literally destroyed.  In 2008 I knew several people who had put on a bunch of leverage and were entirely ruined including losing their primary residence.

Do not make this mistake by believing that asset prices, when they dive, will come back in a reasonable period of time.  They might not come back in your remaining lifespan but even if they do you need to assume that the timeline will be over one to three decades, not years and your income over that period of time may decline to a material degree so even fixed-rate debt is likely to destroy you if you use it to purchase them.

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