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2021-02-15 10:13 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1747 references
[Comments enabled]  

Terrorism (n): The calculated use of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological. (Department of Defense Dictionary)

It's interesting to contemplate that the "strict" meaning of the word "violence" does not include releasing or potentiating the effects of infectious or poisonous agents, yet such is clearly terrorism.  It therefore follows that causing death by infectious or poisonous agents by either intentionally ignoring known means to stop said death when undertaken for political or ideological purposes fits the definition.

Back in February, March and April of 2020 when Covid-19 first started knocking people over in the US in size we had good reason to believe a significant number of existing off-patent, inexpensive drugs and other therapies might work to blunt the pandemic's impact.  We did not know which ones would work but we had reason to believe any or all of the following might along with several more.  I wrote on them at the time, and the record stands in the published works of many, myself included.

Exactly zero funding, studies and other efforts were set up in those months by the CDC, NIH, Johns Hopkins, Vanderbilt, Mayo and dozens of others to run down the efficacy of any of those compounds.  Several entities performed fairly low-level screening against mechanisms of action and developed lists of potential therapeutics.  None of these compounds or strategies had a profit motive associated with them since they were all off-patent and cheap.  This should have immediately led to large-scale trial registration for every one of these compounds since all were already known, approved drugs with a well-studied risk profile and the obvious thing to do with a new infectious agent was to investigate them all to see which, if any, might work.  Instead of investigating these drugs and other agents all of the agencies in question started recommending and working on vaccines, "social distancing" and then masks, the latter of which had 40 years of science demonstrating worthlessness as source control against viruses with the possible exception of N95s that are both expensive and impractical for the general public to use.

Never mind that now we're seeing actual scientific studies documenting harms of mask use specifically with regard to children.  Those forced to wear masks as adults for occupational reasons can be expected to have similar problems.  Given that children almost never get seriously ill and die from Covid for them to bear any burden as a consequence of this disease is an outrage; it is identical to telling children they may not drink out of a glass because some percentage of adults use a glass to get drunk and destroy their livers.

Other nations where corruption of the medical system -- and the money that drives it -- are less-present or they simply don't have the money for much of a medical system at all studied these compounds and actions as a means to blunt the impact of the pandemic on their population.  In short those "back woods worthless brown and black people" undertook attempts to save their population from the ravages of a disease while the richest nations in the world with a hundred times their resource deliberately refused to participate.  I'm sure our government and these so-called "public interest" entities like the Gates Foundation would have loved to stop such research, but they had no way to do so and those health systems were looking for ways to stop not just patient death but employee illness and death as well.

Over the first few months we had reports from various physicians all over the world that some of these suspected compounds worked but even then they were intentionally not followed up by our so-called "public health" agencies and institutions in both the US and most other western nations and those physicians in our country who did pursue them and found them effective were pilloried or even threatened with being fired or having their medical licenses suspended.  Indeed in several states pharmacy boards and even Governors prohibited the perfectly-legal off-label use of some of these drugs, issuing mandates prohibiting the filling of prescriptions.

Again: These are compounds whether drug or nutritional supplement where there is no profit motive to drive million dollar clinical trials; if you "win" you make no money.  Performing such research is exactly why we grant non-profit status to various research and teaching entities and fund them internally in our governments and they deliberately refused to fulfil that part of their mission.

In addition we knew after the Kirkland outbreak happened in February of 2020 that nursing homes were wildly vulnerable environments and that allowing any traffic in and out was extremely dangerous since an enormous percentage of those living in such facilities died when they got infected.  Yet for months we did nothing to shut down all such sources of infection being brought into these environments by employees and in fact in many states we had governors who intentionally enhanced transmission into these facilities by forcing infected and thus known-dangerous persons to be admitted.

So let's go down the list of what we can back up with research that was intentionally not done yet was known likely effective back in March and April.  We will start with those steps that had zero risk and move upward.

  • Segregation of nursing home employees: Known in March after Kirkland.  Not done in one single state by one single governor, all of whom could have done so.  Forbidding cross-employment in multiple facilities, moonlighting and segregating all employees in such facilities into a small hotel rented and paid for by the state so as to physically isolate all staff members from outside infection would have prevented most of the nursing home deaths.  Yes, there would have been the inevitable leakage of an occasional infection into such a facility but nowhere near what did happen.  Doing so for four months would have been much cheaper than even the six week lockdown in the general society; only about 0.5% of our population resides in such places yet they have constituted an enormous percentage of the deaths.  Some people would have quit given this mandate but that's ok; have the government pay whatever is required to staff the jobs under that conditionThis one step alone would have prevented 50,000+ deaths in the first four months, it was an obvious and effective thing to do and despite people including myself calling for it that step was not taken; these deaths are directly chargeable against every single Governor personally along with every public health department as grossly-negligent manslaughter or even Murder 2 as a result of depraved indifference.  Indeed some governors (e.g. Cuomo) did the exact opposite and intentionally forced infected people into those homes, wildly accelerating mortality.

  • Vitamin C: Believed effective, now disproved by study.  IV use may be effective (insufficient evidence and of course limited to hospitals since it's an IV.)

  • Zinc: Alone believed effective on the basis of multiple nostrums sold for viral interdiction (including colds), now disproved by study.  Possibly effective if used with HCQ or Quercetin (not studied sufficiently as far as I know; the mechanism of action is plausible but as you can see the ground is littered with those attempts.)

  • Famotidine (Pepcid): Believed potentially effective but disproved by study.

  • Vitamin D: The association between severe deficiency and serious or fatal Covid-19 infection was known in April with an extremely high degree of correlation.  A pilot study was conducted and reported out in August showing a stunning reduction in mortality and ICU admission for those administered Vitamin D at admission to the hospital.  The risk associated with advising people to not be Vitamin D deficient and to test for and immediately correct same on hospital admission is ZEROthere is no medical risk whatsoever to correcting such a deficiency and advising the population to do so at large (e.g. via a daily multivitamin), along with checking for and correcting it immediately when Covid-19 infection is suspected.  A later and larger study in Barcelona across 550 patients just reported out, confirming the earlier findings with a 60% reduction in mortality when checked at the time of hospital admission.  SIXTY PERCENT!

  • Steroid Inhalers: A doctor out of Texas reported this quite early and he was immediately labeled a quack by the mainstream media and so-called medical "experts."  I was skeptical on this one because during replication suppression of the immune system can be very bad news and there are warnings on commonly-prescribed systemic steroids (e.g. prednisone) related to increased infection susceptibility.  But -- as it turns out there is now science on inhaled steroids and the study in question was just reported out in Australia.  The findings?  90% reduction in hospitalization.  NINETY PERCENT!  In fact they stopped the study early because it was ruled unethical to deny treatment to the control group with results of this magnitude and statistical significance.  These are over the counter drugs in many nations; in the US it's prescription-only and wildly marked up at retail but they cost almost nothing in other countries.  Obviously if you don't go to the hospital you don't die either, right?  Guess what also doesn't happen?  The hospital doesn't make any money if you can puff on that thing three times a day for a few days and the infection is conquered ninety percent of the time.  Yeah.

  • Hydroxychloroquine: Turned into a political football immediately when Trump mentioned it, this is a cheap anti-malarial that has been used for decades with a very well-understood safety profile which we had good reason to believe would likely work on the science, and knew so 15 years previous.  This was noted (in the "chloroquine" form, which is more dangerous to use) as a likely effective agent against SARS in 2005 and should have been studied immediately by the NIH on that basis alone.  It's primary risk factor is in people with cardiac problems, which of course increase in prevalence with age.  Henry Ford Health System (SE Michigan) subsequently ran a pretty-conclusive trial (decent recruitment, randomization, number of persons included in both arms, etc.) on it -- a very well-respected hospital network -- and found it helpful, substituting doxycycline for Z-pak which was an identified cardiac risk potentiator.  They were immediately buried with all manner of innuendo and criticism, issuing a press release that they would have no further comment in public nor would they work publicly on anything related in the future due to being attacked for the "offense" of reporting their medical research.  Work continued outside the US and some studies post that event intentionally set dosing that was into the poisoning range with an apparent intent to discredit the therapy and, in no surprise, when you give known-toxic doses of something bad things happened.  We now know from a large number of studies that in fact it works, but is less effective and has a higher risk profile than Ivermectin.  A registered trial intending to test it as combination therapy with Ivermectin appears to have never been actually enrolled or conducted.

  • Ivermectin: Known likely effective in April when a physician who identified it via a compound search started using it in Broward County FL.  He had nearly-nobody wind up dead while everyone else in the area had about the same percentage of people die.  You'd think that when some doctor suddenly has his fatality rate drop markedly compared to everyone else the entire medical establishment would sit up, take notice and do what he or she does.  After all the cardinal definition of success in medicine is "keep the patient from dying", right?  Instead this was buried along with the HCQ controversy and deliberately ignored in the United States.  But in other nations, not so much -- Egypt and Argentina, to name just two of many, ran trials and found astounding efficiency for this drug in limiting severity of infection including direct clinical markers in patients in the hospital, which in several cases hit the magic p<0.001 number -- that is, statistically improbable beyond reason to be due to random chance.  There are now more than three dozen studies on this drug and every single one of them has reported it to be effective. In addition there is overwhelming data on safety since this drug has been used for decades in humans; the base risk of significant adverse events is 6/100,000, a safety record unmatched by virtually any pharmacologically active compound and many if not most of those adverse events were likely due to the infection being treated rather than the drug.  Merck has now tried to do the same thing to Ivermectin that was done with HCQ claiming there is insufficient "safety data" on the drug despite 30 years and many billions of doses of the drug dispensed for human use.

The important point here folks is that all of this formal study work came from outside the United States and the one time a large, nationally-recognized medical group attempted such a study here in the US they were pilloried and literally driven to silence by political activism.  This is not a singular event either; FLCCC, a group of physicians, had the video of their sworn Senate Testimony removed by Youtube!

We had several months in which to do said follow-up and deliberately did not.  There was not one dollar spent on any of this by the NIH, which Fauci and his wife (who gates research dollars as she runs the "bioethics" group) effectively operate.  Several of these drugs and therapies were directly recommended against by the NIH and FDA, including HCQ and Ivermectin.  The doctor who first came up with the steroid inhaler therapy here in the US was branded a quack by multiple so-called medical "experts" and the media.

Given this and the deliberate attacks on Henry Ford for running a trial on HCQ does this sound like public health or does it sound like the suppression of medical study and testing resulting in death for political and/or ideological goals?

Dr. Fauci has now confirmed by his own words that his and the CDC's goals are political; that his and the CDC's "new" guidelines on schools (while, I remind you, Florida has had their schools safely open for months without these thingsare conditioned on passage of the legislation currently being written in Congress.

Now let's talk about the numbers of deaths directly chargeable to this terrorism -- that is, the deliberate infliction of death through willful and intentional interference with testing known safe and potentially effective therapies and strategies that served to deliberately propagate a biological agent causing death which, if they had been undertaken, investigated and those that proved up made widely available would have dramatically changed the course of this disease, all of which by the totality of the evidence was done with the explicit goal of inculcating fear and driving a political or ideological outcome.

Had we segregated nursing home workers immediately after Kirkland 50,000 of the 140,000 people who died in the first few months would not have died from Covid.  Every single one of the Governors and the Federal Government are directly and personally responsible for these deaths and should be tried and get the needle for the mass-death they caused through depraved indifference to human life.

Had we acted on the Vitamin D deficiency data we had in April which had a zero risk of adverse effects in correcting either in the population or on hospital admission 60% of all persons who have died would not have died.  Again there is zero risk associated with making sure you're not Vitamin-D deficient.  Between these first two actions the death toll through June would have been under 40,000; a reduction in death between the two of 70%.

Had we spent the few tens of millions of dollars in March through June testing the steroid inhalers and Ivermectin, along with the other drugs that did not prove up we could have released the employee lockdown on nursing homes by the end of June and 95% of all the people who died from July onward, which now total more than 300,000 would not have died from a Covid-19 associated illness.  In other words only about another 15,000 people would have passed from that date onward. 

This is materially less, by a factor of more than 75%, than the flu kills in an average year.  Statistically that is a zero and while all death is sad that certainly is not an emergency as extended over a year's time it is materially less than the flu's annual burden.

There would have been no desire or need for "emergency" vaccines with an unknown set of intermediate and long-term risks; if vaccines were indicated they could have gone through regular testing and, in the fullness of time, perhaps been approved.

There would have been no need for "emergency" ventilators at the cost of billions which, we later learned, were both unnecessary and useless.

The trillions of dollars emitted and doled out with most of it going to big business and political cronies would have never occurred and the inflation destruction that is certain to follow in the years ahead would have been avoided.

There would have been no reason to keep a single school closed.

There would have been no call for mask mandates, distancing, closing businesses or anything else.

Essentially all of the unemployment, business destruction, wildly skewed preference and the driving of business to large national and multi-national firms such as Amazon, WalMart and others would not have occurred.

The entirety of the tourism and hospitality business would have been back to normal by August including cruises, air travel and the rest.

In short by the end of summer everything would have been back to normal including our economy.

The pandemic and fear would have been over in the summer and stayed over with cheap, inexpensive and readily-available drugs and vitamin supplements that have been known to be safe and can be bought anywhere for pennies.  If you got Covid-19 a couple of doses of Ivermectin and a few puffs on a steroid inhaler would have turned 95% of the hospitalizations and deaths that occurred into nuisances no more serious than a common cold or mild flu.  Further we would have achieved and maintained herd immunity through what would be a nuisance infection similar to that of common colds and flus by now since the infections would still happen, virtually everyone would have been infected and recovered by late summer and yet serious harm or death would have come to statistically nobody.

It can still be over without a single jab in the arm or any of the risks associated with it today, right here and now in the space of a single day, via the exact same mechanism at near-zero cost and inconvenience, job loss or economic damage.

Some of those first 40,000 dead would have died due to lack of knowledge of how to mitigate the risk and treat vulnerable people.  That sucks but was unavoidable since we did not know which pharmaceutical and nutritional agents were effective.

95% of the rest, and 95% of those who get the virus and die today are doing so as a direct result of intentional actions by State Governors, the President of the United States both past and present, the CDC, the NIH and every single so-called "public health" institution including the hospitals, teaching and research universities including but not limited to IHME, Vanderbilt, Johns Hopkins and countless more.

There is no reason for any of this to continue, there is no reason to wear a mask as they are worthless and in fact can cause harm, there is no reason to distance or stay away from each other, there is no reason to torture our kids with school restrictions and there is no reason to take a vaccine.

None of it is necessary on the science because we know how to stop nearly all such infections from becoming serious or fatal at the cost of literal pennies.  We had good reason to believe all of this would work in March and April, we knew factually that locking in nursing home employees would work in March, and we intentionally refused to investigate those drugs or lock nursing home employees in away from sources of infection. We did pillory the few health systems and physicians that dared launch their own investigation and report the results.

Despite that intentional obstruction in the US and western nations other countries have done the work and now the results and the jury are both in -- like it or not.

Our government -- including Federal, State and Local officials, in concert with both the medical system and our alleged "public health" agencies deliberately spread disease and caused death for the last year, directly and through depraved indifference, killing approximately 400,000 Americans thus far and is killing thousands more every single day.  We knew how to stop the death in nursing homes in February of 2020 and we knew how to stop 95% of the deaths in the general population this summer using cheap and available nutritional supplements and off-patent medications.  Rather than fulfill their legal duty both by their oaths of office and in the case of non-profits and public health organizations the duties set forth in their charter and the reason for their tax exemptions they instead conspired with commercial interests to allow and even promote such death so as to inculcate fear in the population for the purpose of political, ideological and financial gain.


These actions are deliberately being undertaken and have been since March of 2020, and have caused mass death, for the express purpose of a political and/or ideological result.

That is the entire point of terrorism -- to scare people into compliance with a set of political or ideological demands by making the public fear that they will die next if they do not do as the terrorists demand.


We're coming up on 500,000 dead Americans folks and most of those deaths were avoidable.

Something like 130+ times the number of people Bin Laden killed on 9/11 in avoidable deaths were caused by intentional refusal to follow up on what was learned and even harassment of well-respected medical institutions that dared to speak against their suppression was undertaken with another 9/11's worth of death being accrued at present every single day.

I am not afraid of this virus because I have read and understood the evolving science since the start of this mess and have acquired beginning in March the agents necessary to prevent, with a 95% certainty, the harms it may cause.  Over time I've discarded a few of those potential treatments as they were either found to be ineffective or replaced with more-effective ones.  I have ensured I am not Vitamin-D deficient since that has zero risk to my person and costs pennies.  As a result despite being 57 years of age and thus at allegedly "higher risk" it is clear on the science that this virus is no more dangerous to me than the common cold and I have exactly zero concern about contracting it.  I have lived my unmasked life for the last year and will continue to; you may take your "mandates" intended to scare me and shove them straight up your ass.

I no longer give a wet crap about terrorists using bombs, knives, guns, trucks, airplanes or even a nuclear weapon and never will again since our nation has decided that its perfectly ok for terrorists in our government and health care institutions to kill thousands of Americans every day on purpose for a year straight and will not punish those who are doing it or force them to stop.  Every terrorist who has attacked an American interest in this history of this nation combined has not come close to the body count of the ghouls who together are responsible for nearly half a million dead American souls.

And since the vast majority of the population are by the clear record terrorist sympathizers in that the people of this nation refuse to rise and put a stop to this crap if I come upon your overturned vehicle or otherwise find you in peril unlike the two times in the previous 20 years when I stopped and rendered assistance, in one case according to the EMTs likely saving the driver's life -- I'm continuing right on by.

Make your peace with God for as long as this state of affairs continues I swear on my eternal soul I will not help any who may have conspired to shove nearly half a million Americans in hole for political purposes.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)

2021-01-11 10:39 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1028 references
[Comments enabled]  

You didn't actually buy into the bull**** thrown around in US Government Schools did you?

You know, the Marx definition?

A political theory derived from the writings of Karl Marx in which all property is publicly owned, each person working and receiving according to their abilities and needs.

I have spent most of my nearly 14 years here writing on Communism when it comes to the United States in one form or another.  And no, it's not Marx.  Marx's "economic theories" are a result of Communism but, as Bradford found out at Plymouth, they don't work.  They don't work because you cannot compel people to produce beyond a minimum level, and that minimum level, extended to all of society, produces less than society requires to sustain itself.

This is why such attempts always fail and usually take the government down with them.  Bradford aborted the attempt before it killed everyone (including him) at Plymouth; facing starvation and disease with a rapidly-dwindling population has a way of focusing the mind.

No, folks, Communism is not primarily an economic model or function.  Indeed, you get that outcome, but that's not the reason for it, it's a side effect.  Karl Marx was a conniving **********, not some visionary, although I can't prove he intentionally misled the world (he seems to be dead so I can't corner him and insist he answer) but the manifest weight of the evidence is clear.

Communism is a type of organization of political power in which those who are in The Party are entitled to do whatever they wish; the alleged "laws" within that political area apply only to those who are not in The Party.  The above, that of private property and contractual rights to set the terms of one's labor is one of the public and visible manifestations of this but is not the central point nor the goal of it.  You can neither set the terms of your labor or own property if you are not considered to have human rights in the first instance and the creation and enforcement of that differentiation between people is the definition.

Do recall that we nominated and are about to inaugurate a President and Vice-President who between them:

  • Literally sucked and ****ed her way to political power.  This isn't a salacious charge it's admitted by the person who got the sucking and did the ****ing, who has also disavowed said beneficiary (Harris).

  • Literally smoked joints while prosecuting those who were also smoking joints, an act that was illegal at the time, and threw the other people in prison for it by her own admission.  (Harris again)

  • Literally shielded his son from the just consequences of consuming a wildly illegal substance in a rental car, leaving not only irrefutable evidence (a used glass pipe full of residue) behind that almost-certainly was covered with his fingerprints but also his identification in said vehicle, proving that it was he who was in the car and consuming said substances, all of which are felonies in that state. (Biden)

  • On the manifest weight of the evidence the FBI and DOJ have had in their possession proof, in the form of a laptop drive image, of felony conduct involving children with said family member and conclusive evidence that the remaining members of the family knew about and did not report same to the authorities.  In other words, the manifest weight of the evidence is that the parents of at least one said involved minor intentionally prevented the law from being enforced.  (Biden again.)  There is, apparently, on said laptop multiple other images of other children that nobody dare display because they are per-se illegal child pornography.  The FBI had this evidence in their hands a year prior to the election and intentionally did nothing with it.

  • On the manifest weight of the evidence both the Ukraine and China bribed, through the provision of funds to a member of the Biden family of which a piece, 10% it is said, was directly funneled to Joe Biden himself.  At least one of the trips to China involving said member of the family took place on an official US Government aircraft, Air Force 2.  The person bribed had no specific nor general business experience that qualified them to have anything to do with the ventures in question; their only rational reason to employ said person was their direct connection to the Vice President of the United States who got paid for same.

And in nine days these two Party Members will become President and Vice-President.

But this is just the latest in a long line of such abuses.

Over the last year myriad people favored by The Party looted, broke into and destroyed government offices and committed countless acts of arson against both government offices and private property.  They got streets painted in their name including in Washington DC and have not been arrested, indicted and prosecuted.  Our VP-to-be, a Party Member, directly advocated for and raised funds to bail them out of the petty charges lodged against them.  One of The Party sycophants published a photo of herself holding the President's severed head in effigy and this was not deemed "incitement" while an exhortation to peacefully march in Washington DC was.  You see, President Trump, having been a Party Member for a good long time, was declared expelled before the 2016 election and thus subject to any form of abuse desired by The Party up to and including calling for his beheading.

For forty years the entire Medical System in this country has been comprised of Party Members.  In the late 1970s and early 1980s two seminal cases, Royal Drug and Maricopa County, both at the Supreme Court, found that US antitrust law, 15 USC Chapter 1, applied in full to the medical and pharmaceutical industries.  I remind you that this law is not just a civil statute it carries criminal felony penalties including 10 year prison terms for each violation.

In the 40 years since not one person in The Party has been charged and sent to prison under these laws.

This very same industry has led to 350,000 deaths in America over the last nine months, many of which occurred due to deliberate acts of both obstruction and commission.  Post Kirkland we locked out visitors from nursing homes.  Not only does this means that every single person who died post that event in such a home was provably infected by a health care worker but in addition those residents were denied the basic status of human beings in that they were forcibly prevented from choosing to take the risk of their family members infecting them.  You see, those residents are not Party Members and thus do not have basic and allegedly unalienable human rights.  In addition these same Party Members have deliberately lied about the fact that we have known for forty years that masks less than N95s are worthless as "source control", that is, to prevent an infected person from spreading a disease to others.  Indeed these very Party Members have decreed that it is safe for them to be in said nursing home if they wear an N95 but you, as not a Party Member, cannot don the same PPE and visit your loved ones.  In other words you're not human and neither is your loved one in said place; they are not entitled to basic human rights and to make a decision of self-determination but if and when said Party Members kill your loved ones when their PPE proves ineffective that's just tough crap.

There is, incidentally, reason to believe N95s might be effective but that does not matter; mandates have dropped all over the world demanding you use known worthless devices as a "badge", an act of flat-out fraud. Indeed said mandates are functionally equivalent to The Star of David.

At the same time The Party has decreed that all such Party Members are to be proclaimed as heroes -- and don't you dare forget it or fail to acknowledge same lest you be canceled.

How did that happen?  You let it happen over the previous 40 years by allowing doctors, nurses, hospital administrators, so-called "public health" experts and others to become members of The Party and thus be immune from the very laws you must follow.  You, and your loved ones, are not Party Members and thus neither you or they have human rights anymore.

These very same Party Members then butchered your loved ones by refusing to tell them about the scientific evidence that showed there were both nutritional supplements and cheap drugs that might stop or reduce the severity of Covid-19.  As professionals who claim credentialism they had a professional and legal duty to so-inform you and let you make the decision as a human being between the risks and rewards associated with these options; the definition of human rights includes self-determination.  They instead have and continue to deny said choice to you, on purpose and contrary to actual law which states that off-label use of any drug is explicitly legal, all the way up to the NIH and FDA.  As a direct result 350,000 people are dead.  That is depraved indifference and it is happening every single hour of every day, right now.  Legally it is identical to me getting ****-faced in a bar and then driving a vehicle, in that if I then hit and kill someone I have committed manslaughter.  But you see -- I'm not a Party Member, thus I get prosecuted and they have and will not be.

Was Kennedy prosecuted?  You do remember that, right?

Kids in public schools?  They're not Party Members.  Thus when the Teacher's Unions block instruction and even worse, demand to be paid when they don't work -- money that comes out of your pocket, forcibly, in property taxes whether you rent or own where you live they are free to permanently impair the educational development of said children and make you pay for their non-work.

They're Party Members, you are not.  Millions of children permanently harmed are perfectly acceptable if it saves even ONE Party Member's life.  Ditto for all the suicides and drug overdoses caused by their "mitigating measures"; those people are not Party Members, you see, and thus are not entitled to basic human rights.

How many Governors, Mayors and similar have dropped mandates on the people in their jurisdictions whether it be "stay at home" orders, mask requirements or other constraints and then violated the very orders they issued themselves?  Has even one said person been arrested?  Nope.  Why?  They are Party Members and thus the law does not apply to them -- any law -- while you are not a Party Member and thus whatever they do to you is perfectly fine.

Amazon, for years, blatantly flouted State sales tax laws.  Their scheme was hardly novel; I contemplated the same scheme in the 1990s when I ran MCSNet and asked corporate counsel about it as we planned to expand to new states.  I got the "raised eyebrow" look from them, asking if I was writing a retainer check to them for not only inevitable litigation forcing me to pay the back taxes, penalties and interest but whether I was also going to engage their criminal defense attorneys when I was charged with felony tax evasion.  You see, I'm not a Party Member.  Beelzebezos is, however, so when he did the exact same thing he was not charged and never paid a nickel of back anything.  When challenged on not collecting and paying he folded every single time instead of going to court.  That is clear evidence that he knew damn well what he was doing was illegal and didn't care; he had no fear of the indictment nor financial penalty because...... wait for it...... HE IS A PARTY MEMBER.

The danger of course is that you can be kicked out of The Party and thinking you can't be is quite dangerous.  If you are kicked out then every single thing you've done that remains within the Statute of Limitations will come down on your head like a piano dropped from 20 floors up.  Weiner anyone?  Or, for that matter, Donald Trump?

Incidentally the current "impeachment" scream-fest out of Pelosi is just another example.  Impeachment is explicitly defined in the Constitution and the remedy afforded by said process is removal from office.  You can't remove someone who's no longer in office and as a result of the Senate's current pro-forma sessions (during which no actual business can be conducted), a status which cannot be voided without unanimous consent it is not possible under the law for The Senate to try an impeachment before January 20th at noon.  As such it is Constitutionally impossible to remove President Trump from office under impeachment nor can he be barred from running again because to take the second vote to do so the first must be sustained and, Constitutionally, the ability to try that impeachment in the Senate is mooted at noon on January 20th

Pelosi knows this full-well and doesn't care.  So why is she doing it?

Trump is an expelled former Party Member and thus the constraints of the Law, including the highest law of the land, do not prevent any action The Party desires to take against him, just like it's perfectly ok for a Party Member to kill your mother in a nursing home.  Note that this very same lack of constraint in the law applies to damn near each and every one of you too.

This, by the way, is why Trump and is entire family are all utterly ****ed the moment he leaves office.

Oh, this is new, you think?

How about Dennis Hastert. Did he go to jail for what he did, or was he later kicked out of The Party and thus suddenly exposed for lying about the purpose of his "hush money" payments?

How is it that the entire ******ned Catholic Church ran what can only be reasonably described as an organized homosexual child abuse ring for decades and yet as soon as the heat showed up the Priests involved were removed to the Vatican and, in at least one case, given a Basilica to preside over safe from extradition back to the US to face criminal charges?  Answer: They're PARTY MEMBERS, your son is not and thus he was their plaything and not entitled to basic human rights.

Marx's theory says that the Uygurs in China are entitled to each according to their needs.  Are they receiving that?  Nope; they're in concentration camps which are better described as slavery, since their labor is compelled and being used to make..... SHOES, among other things, for Party Members who reside in and sell said merchandise right here.  Cobalt for Tesla's batteries?  Same deal; forced child labor in the DRC.  Elon Musk is a PARTY MEMBER and thus his exploitation of said children without which he could not have built Tesla battery packs is permitted because said children are not human as they are NOT Party Members.

Stalin?  He sent how many to the Gulag?  Marx, again, stated they were all entitled according to their needs.  Did they get it?  Nope.

The Marxian theory taught in school is a lie; a convenient cover story and nothing more.

The truth is that Communism is simply a two-class system in which members of The Party are not bound by any law whatsoever provided the persons or rights abused are Non-Party Members, all of whom are declared not human and thus not entitled to even the basic humane treatment of a farm animal being raised for food.

If we as a people, 99% of whom are not Party Members, do not rise up and put a stop to this now across the board you are fully exposed to winding up in said Gulag or even joining your dead Grandmother who Party Members killed over the last nine months.  You have zero protection of any law provided the person or organization who chooses to abuse or even kill you in cold blood is a Party Member.  Yes, there are peaceful means to stop this -- for now.  At the point there aren't any more your option to resolve this will have expired and if you think you'll be allowed into The Party and thus protected for other than particular operational reasons you're deluded.

THIS is what Communism actually is and it's right here in the United States, right now, and has been for decades.


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2020-12-12 13:31 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 882 references
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When I first began writing The Market Ticker I made a practice of doing a "Year in Review" ticker toward the back half of December with a list of predictions for the next year.  Part of this, after the first one of course, was scoring myself on the previous year's predictions.

Predictions for events, market-based, societal or political, with a year timeline are pretty tough.  Most years I managed to get somewhere around a third to a half of them, and a couple of times a few more than that.  Plenty of people thought this was a terrible record.  Frankly, I'll put that up against Gundlach, Gartman (who for a very long time was the absolute best person to bet against, ever) and a whole host of others, most of whom would be lucky to hit 10%.  And while half sounds like random chance it's not by any stretch of the imagination; these are not bets against professional odds-makers such as a football game where the book does its level best to set the line right at the 50/50 point and if they suck at it they are out of business in a very short period of time.

2020 was an utterly-astounding year.  I had made a decision a couple of years earlier that since I was quite tired of the NW Florida coast and the ever-increasing soft encroachment of "Ft. Lauderdale North" in both the level of corruption and other matters (e.g. traffic, etc) I was leaving, and spent most of 2019 looking for the exact where, focusing in NE Tennessee.  That contract was in the bag before the end of the year and in the early days of 2020 a hard contract to sell my residence in NW Florida was in the bag too.  Of course I had no idea at the time that Covid would show up a few weeks later -- but it did.  It complicated my moving somewhat due to the lockdowns and bull****, but in the end it was all executed on and completed -- and I'm in no way unhappy with my choice.

I've long pointed out that for a self-employed or not-employed person there are severe problems imposed by Obamacare that make it really ugly until you reach 65 and qualify for Medicare, and they get worse every year.  I'm not yet 65.  The reason is the "donut hole" in Obamacare subsidies designed to intentionally screw you starting at just over $20,000 a year in gross income, and which reaches its maximum level of financial******right at about $40,000 for a single person; both figures doubling for a couple.  The screwing ratchets upward rapidly with age, yet it is precisely the middle-age individual who is best-positioned to start a business -- during the formative years of which he or she will make little money and thus the screwing is most-intense.  It's the most-regressive taxing scheme ever imposed in the history of the United States against entrepreneurship.  It not only does not bother large, established businesses they actively promote and love it because it inhibits competition.

Had it been in place during my early years of MCSNet it would have literally prevented me from starting the company as doing so would have led to me living in the street; I would have been unable to pay rent, groceries and the power bill at my apartment.  If you think that outcome was accidental you're flat-out nuts.  I'd have had no choice but to take a "code monkey" position somewhere and by now I'd have likely been displaced by my job being moved to India or some H1b dude who works for $20k/year being imported with either resulting in my being tossed into the street.

It has been ten years since that time and nobody has risen up in revolt -- not openly, not quietly, not at all.  No work stoppages.  No general strikes, although I've pointed out that they're not only legal they cripple both government and private industry and are the single most-effective non-violent and legal means of coercion a population has.  Simply put nobody cares and instead the echo chamber of social media is where people threaten to secede or riot -- yet other than a few soyboi who claim to care about "black lives" yet burn black businesses to the ground, and have you noticed nearly every one of them bringing the gas-filled bottles is a white drug addicted ******* or serial felon?

Covid is just the latest load of bull****.  Oh, not the virus; that's real.  No, the hysteria.  Early in the course of this thing I pointed out that by the math it had to be here in the US no later than October of 2019, and was probably earlier.  That's how comparing RNA samples works; entropy is a fairly decently understood thing and given a fair number of samples you can put an inside boundary on when something started.  You can't put an outside boundary on it since you can only compute from what you have samples for.  Everyone thought I was a crackpot -- but now we know it was true because antibodies were in blood donated in the first two weeks of December of 2019, and in fact the prevalence in those samples was 1.4% and was more-or-less evenly distributed through the country which means over 4 million Americans had been infected by December of 2019.  How much attention has been paid to this?  Zero; yet it is irrefutable scientific proof when antibodies are in your blood that you had the infection.  It is accepted proof for measles, chicken pox, mumps and dozens of others that if you have a titer of antibodies you were either vaccinated or infected.  If you look at the "flu" curves for the last five years you do have to wonder; is Covid really novel at all or has it been circulating in the United States for years?  It certainly was circulating in the first part of the flu season last year and yet of course we don't count anyone dead from it until roughly February despite hard, scientific proof that it was all over the place and more than 4 million Americans had been infected by the first two weeks of December.

Did the CDC, NIH or anyone else run any of these samples in January and February?  Nope.  Everyone simply took China's and the WHO's word for it.  Ditto when they started shoving tubes down everyone's throat despite us knowing in February it did not work in that the data out of Wuhan showed that more than nine out of ten times if you ventilated a Covid patient they died.

Remember this?


95% failure, known in March, yet our Lord and Savior Trump spent billions and fed a medical machine and murderous Governors including Cuomo, Witmer and others with ventilators produced under the DPA that did not work and we knew did not work, conclusively so.

Where were the people with their pitchforks and torches demanding the ejection of every one of these murderous *******s who killed your grandmother with known worthless but very expensive and profitable medical procedures?


Has this ever changed?  Nope.  It has not changed a bit.  Again we knew in March that this virus produced a clotting disorder if you got hammered.  I have early reports of this out of California in a thread in The Bar here on my forum.  I found some of it hard to believe; people with O2 sats pictured in the 80s laying on a gurney using their cellphone to text people, yet there it was.  We've known how to treat clotting disorders for close to 80 years.  That's no bull**** folks; Heparin and Warfarin are both very old drugs with known safety profiles used in millions of people.  My father was on Warfarin as he had phlebitis and it was a prophylaxis given to him in an attempt (successful over more than a decade's time) to prevent a clot from forming and breaking off that could have easily killed him via heart attack or occlusive stroke.

In addition there was reason to believe both Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin were potentially active, at least if used early when viral replication was still going on to treat this disease.  As it turns out they both are.  HCQ turned into an immediate political football but Ivermectin was more-or-less ignored.  Or was it?  Not everywhere -- just here where money is all that matters and dead people are fine provided it makes money.  Think I'm kidding?  Look at the infection and death rates in parts of Africa and South America where there are few doctors and damn little resource.  What there happens to be is Ivermectin in wide-scale use as an anti-parasitic and damn little Covid death.  That correlation was known early, plenty of people misread it to think it was HCQ that was involved and perhaps some of it was because malaria is also in those areas.  By June the studies had started to show up on Ivermectin and at this point there are 24 such studies completed and reported out, 10 of them randomized trials and 100% of them found benefit.  Two, one in Egypt and one in Argentina found from 80-100% effectiveness when used as prophylaxis to prevent infections.  In short we know how to stop the promulgation of Covid without a vaccine and its potential risks; Ivermectin has a proved safety profile with nearly four billion doses dispensed along with wildly-common use in animals as well.

I have raised Hell about the screamfest of "Massssssssks!" for the last five months becasue it is clear on the data and the physics that they cannot and do not work.  Multiple alleged "scientists" have claimed they do but every one of those claims has been blown up over time as spikes have occurred after mandates where compliance has been extremely high, exceeding 75% and in some cases exceeding 90%.  There is not one place where durable suppression of transmission has occurred concurrent with a mask mandate.  Why not?  Because most transmission occurs in homes and the second is nosocomial -- that is, from a health care worker.  If a health care worker who is trained as a professional in the proper use of masks and in fact has access to and is using the best quality masks is still infecting people then obviously that particular claimed intervention is worthless and worthless or not nobody is going to wear a mask in their own home.

On the other hand a medical school, EVMS, has documented a protocol that does appear to work including post and pre-exposure prophylaxis.  The data says that protocol works as well as a vaccine in preventing infection.  This means we could have cut off Covid-19 starting in the late summer; we had the data and simply refused to use it.  Had we used it then at least half those now dead would be alive and there would be no fear, no reason for masks, no reason for vaccines or anything of the like.  The proof is right here:


We live in a post-science society folks.  I have no dog in this hunt.  I own no stock in Pfizer or Moderna.  I do not and never have earned a nickel from the so-called medical complex.  I've watched through my years decades of malfeasance and worse when it comes to medical procedures, from the bull**** surrounding statins to the latest crap including stents and high blood pressure meds.  You may or may not know this but there is no evidence that for a person with stable angina a stent does anything to reduce their risk of heart attack or stroke but has a 1 in 50 risk of killing you during or immediately after the procedure.  Yes, stents can save lives; if you're having an actual heart attack they are one of the few ways to stop the damage right here, right now and are of lower risk than immediate open-heart surgery, so there you go.  Ditto for blood pressure meds; in people with mildly-elevated blood pressure while the meds do lower blood pressure they have zero impact on mortality from the averred method of prevention -- stopping heart attacks and strokes.  Of course both make people money.  Then there's the statin mess which I've written on in this column many times, along with the psychotropic meds (SSRIs) which are known to create "rage monsters" in a small percentage of those under the age of 25 -- yet are still handed out like candy.

Anyway, enough of the expose on the medical scam; it's not new and in fact goes back decades.  It was a huge part of Obamacare and for decades before that.  It's been a racketeering enterprise for decades as well and despite it being fully and explicitly legal for any doctor to prescribe any drug "off label" -- indeed, roughly a quarter of all drugs are prescribed off-label -- doctors are threatened and even get their tickets punched for doing it whenever and wherever it might interrupt the cash flow in the local medical systems and hospitals.  Medicine, in short, has not been an art for a long time; it is now an assembly-line where the primary study endpoint is the making of money and outcome-based compensation is in fact illegal.  Little wonder the death rate per 100,000 people in the US has been going up rather than down for the last 10 years.

Oh, the media hasn't told you that?  It's right on the CDC's own pages!

Well, **** 'em all.

In 2011 I altered what I ate, going directly against the so-called "medical advice" and I'm in better physical condition now and more athletically competent than I was when I was 17.  I consume and require zero prescription meds on a routine basis.

Since April I've personally used the non-prescription prophylaxis that has developed and been learned from over time.  The protocol I've been using has been stable since June.  I've been exposed to Covid several times that I know occurred (approaching a half-dozen known exposures at this point) and yet I haven't gotten it.  I did, however, get a nasty flu-like bug the first week of January that had lingering effects for over a month and proved physical degradation until just a month or so ago in terms of VO2 recovery -- but if it was Covid then I didn't build an antibody response to it because I've been able to ascertain that I don't have them.  Maybe I did have it, that I had plenty of spare capacity kept me being rat****ed, I was T-cell reactive and thus didn't build antibodies but all of that kept me out of the hospital and also kept me from being killed by a tube shoved down my throat.  Who knows.

In the backdrop of all of this and the screaming idiots under their desks demanding you dehumanize and de-socialize yourself by hiding behind a diaper we had an election that was one of the most-outrageously insecure and corrupt in my time on this planet.  It was facially illegal under the Constitution in a whole host of states simply because non-legislative modifications were made to procedure and those are facially unconstitutional -- pandemic or not.  I have no idea who actually won but it doesn't matter because, as I noted in a speech before the County Commission here a few days after the contest it is nearly certain Biden will be inaugurated in January.

This didn't happen in a vacuum -- it happened because for the last 20+ years you have sat around with your thumb up your ass as all manner of unconstitutional and otherwise illegal things have occurred instead of rising and demanding it stop under penalty of immediate removal from office and authority by whatever means were necessary.  This was compounded by what we now know was deliberate suppression of the fact that an existing criminal investigation was underway related to the entire Biden family for more than a year and their potential money-laundering ties to China, never mind the blatantly-unlawful acts surrounding and after the 2016 elections which the so-called "Savior of the World" Donald J. Trump did not stop, expose and blow to beyond the orbit of Mars despite being the factual head of said agencies and section of government responsible for same.  In other words he had the full authority to do so and didn't use it.  Stop making excuses for someone who had four years and sat around with his thumb up his ass.  He deserves ejection for that standing alone.

With that said here are my predictions for 2021.  As was always the case in the past I reserve the right to modify anything in this posting until 12:01 on January 1st, 2021 and no revisions will be noted as having been made since nothing is set in stone until that time.  This posting will not be pinned but will be exempted so it will not roll off; back when I used to do this every year there was no roll-off but now there is by default, so in the interest of being able to actually account for accuracy I will exempt both the post and all replies.

Here we go.

  • Biden/Harris is inaugurated on January 20th.  This could be interrupted at this point, in theory, by one of a number of events -- invocation of the Insurrection Act or one of the handful of court cases still running around.  But since the Texas case was dismissed (incorrectly in my view; it deserved to be heard in full whether the USSC liked it or not) the only actual option left would involve actual proof of systemic fraud.  Again, all elections have fraud but proof of systemic fraud doesn't just strip Biden/Harris from the Presidency -- it strips multiple State actors from office and in fact is cause for an immediate no-bull**** Revolution, right here and right now.  There are lots of claims that this occurred but thus far I've not seen a single one of them put forward as hard proof.  Those who are making claims that, if true, not only justify but demand such a response if there is anything left of a Republic to defend had better put up or shut the **** up.  Acting to incite such an event without proof is just as evil if not more-so as installing Biden. Period.

  • The Senate will not flip to 50/50.  It may be 51/49 but that does not matter.  Without a 50/50 split The Senate can block the sort of radical bull**** that is coming from the AOC-wing of the Democrat party, and will.  The manifest weight of the evidence is that while plenty of people don't like Trump they like Communism even less and thus the Democrats suffered major losses in the House and in the States.  A few Democrats have noted the problem and urged caution; they have a brain and realize that the people did indeed push back against such things as national gun registration, "Medicare for All", "Universal Basic Income", stripping private property for grins and giggles, outlawing carbon-based fuels and/or gas powered cars, "Green New Deals" and the like. That political parties have bat****-crazy wings is nothing new; in fact it's as old as America.  In two years I remind you that it is the Democrats who have the severe disadvantage in terms of Senate seat retention and if they don't watch out they'll lose both House and Senate in the midterms which effectively ends the Biden/Harris Presidency as a matter of law-making capacity and if the suppressed investigation into the Bidens in fact ends with hard proof of complicity or worse it could lead to either a Biden impeachment, assuming he stays in office that long or even a dual impeachment of both Biden AND Harris.  With a Republican Speaker that ends the Democrat control of the White House on a summary basis in two years, not four.  Tread lightly, Mizz Pelo****youbitch.

  • There will be at least the rumblings of actual secession.  I suspect Schumer is crazy enough to not care but Pelosi, for all her bluster, is not.  She knows damn well that even a moderately lawful and peaceful act of blockading through the middle of the country (e.g. by General Strike which is entirely lawful or active denial which is moderately illegal), while nowhere near completely effective at shutting anything down would be wildly disruptive to city cores and might trigger mass-riots that would render cities entirely uninhabitable.  California and New York are already watching companies leave that are their primary taxpayers in terms of size -- California in particular has had drips and drabs of this for a while but it's accelerating.  There is a point where crazy gets pushed back upon and it doesn't necessarily mean shooting.  All the bleating in the world by a bunch of pantywaists will do nothing when you get down to it; at the end of the day someone has to go to work and produce the power, Internet service, food and various other industrial outputs that make modern life possible, never mind moving all of it from one place to another. ******off enough people or make their working environment dangerous enough with bull**** like what is going on out in Portland and suddenly you have a municipal water plant with no sanitizer and thus, no safe drinking water.

  • Covid insanity will be exposed before the end of December, and collapse in the New Year.  Florida is leading the way here with a demand for Ct publication.  Tennessee data already showed up from one lab proving that, if it holds for the other labs in distribution of test results that anywhere between 2/3rds and 3/4s of alleged positive tests were false positives -- that is, not infectious.  In short the Ct scam kept the fear possible from the late spring through mid-fall months where the truth would have made everyone shrug their shoulders and told the government to go to Hell with all of their restrictions.  Once this becomes clear, and I believe it will within the next few weeks, there will be Hell to pay and it's going to be aimed directly at those who took any sort of "mandate" approach to this disease or wagged their finger.  Suggestions are one thing; orders are another entirely especially when they cost people jobs.

  • The previous, once it is fully out in the open and it will be, will doom public acceptance of Covid vaccines.  For those at high risk they'll take it and it's probably a good trade-off with risk.  For everyone else, however, who won't have the opportunity until after the Ct scam has been out in the public for months, they will refuse.  The incidence of severe but not fatal side effects will only add to this; there are already reports of 105F fevers being produced which, I remind you, are stand-alone dangerous in adults.  It will take very few of those that show up in the general population and wind up all over the news to doom widespread acceptance.  There is also widespread refusal that is coming from very powerful places such as the NYC firefighters, who are unionized and are already saying they will refuse en-masse to take the shot.  They can and will enforce that refusal and won't be able to be fired for doing so.  I cannot accurately handicap the actual efficacy and safety of the EUA'd vaccines since there simply isn't enough data to do it; as I have repeatedly noted the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  But once it sinks into the several million who were quarantined and forced out of work for 2 weeks because of a false claim they had an infectious disease they never had if you think those people are going to believe the very same government officials when it comes to safety and efficacy of a vaccine, especially when it produces severe side effects (fatal or not) in a material percentage of those who take it you got rocks in your head.

  • The factual capacity to interdict spread and provide early treatment will be resisted -- and won't matter.  With the most at-risk already vaccinated while "cases" will not go away death will, and immediately thereafter nobody will care.  This is sad, because most of what is part of prophylaxis for this virus also works for basically all the others -- not 100%, but close enough.  Specifically Vitamin D levels are a big deal and we've known that for a long time, but the sedentary, sit-indoors-and-play-video-games paradigm obviously prevents you from getting that from the sun and the lack of attention will stop you from taking a supplement.  As a result we will learn an effective nothing in terms of long-term health impact from Covid, which is really ****ty but -- oh well.

  • Bread and circuses still works.  You'd think we had learned something about the eventual outcome of that sort of bull**** since, oh, second century CE? Apparently not.  Hand the people "stimulus checks" insufficient to even cover half of most people's monthly nut twice in one year and they'll shut up instead of telling the government to go straight to Hell, burn their masks, open their shops and other enterprises, stick up the middle finger and if the government tries to challenge that tell the goons to stand down, get out or get shot -- and mean it.  Yeah, they can try to pull business licenses and such but the reality of it is simple: There are 100 or even 1,000 ordinary citizens for every cop and they all live in homes that are not and cannot be protected at the same time they're playing goon squad; if it comes to a fight the citizens win and the cops lose, badly.  They only pull this crap and make their threats because statistically zero people stand up to them and tell them to **** off; they know damn well their authority only exists because the general public consents.  The minute that changes they're done and they know it.  But instead of demanding that the goons shut up and sit down, leaving peaceable citizens alone so they can earn a living and calibrate their own personal risk of getting a virus as they see fit the people bleat that a $600 check was not $2,000!  Meanwhile the rent and power bill that they don't have to pay today continues to accrue and both the landlord and power company are now sitting on receivables that on their books is an "asset" (thus they look solvent) but nobody's asking exactly how that $15,000 per apartment that wasn't paid over the last year is ever going to be collected -- and from whom.  After all the people that got those checks blew it on booze and, in many states, bong hits.  I remind you that the American Revolution was fought in the middle of a smallpox outbreak, a disease that killed 30% of those who got it, not 0.2% and which with known treatments would be 1/10th of that or less.  What used to be the definition of America, in short, is gone.  We're all Jews being herded into boxcars in exchange for the promise of a meal!  How does this play out in 2021?  No idea, but ADE is a real thing and one or more of those vaccines might have that problem -- nobody knows because we short-circuited the testing.

  • Inflation is coming.  Not immediately, but it is.  Mid-summer, roughly, before it starts to get very noticeable. As a consumer that's when you have to watch out.  As an investor start paying attention roughly around March or thereabouts.  Beware that the markets have a way of figuring things out long before they happen.  Perv-n-Ho will almost-certainly be able to shove through both tax increases and sunsetting of other provisions, along with through Executive Action opening up the H1b and illegal invader floodgates.  Both will do critical damage to an already-screwed wage base.  They'll try it anyway since they see the writing on the wall for Medicare which I've written about for over 10 years and have studied and predicted back in the 1990s.  Nonetheless they have no answer that doesn't lead to an immediate and very deep recession, which no politician will do on purpose, so we're going to get hammered.  The hammer is not coming this year but the attempts to evade it will.  Count on it.

  • Expect the grab-bag of money-printing to continue.  If you're in a big city you're in trouble.  You'd think this would inure to your benefit -- nothing is further from the truth.  Corporations have figured out that they can run without all the expense that comes from their presence in those places and with it the decimation of budgets and big spending will accelerate.  The Federal Government cannot stop this nor replace it; oh they'll try, but fail.  If you own property in such places watch out; you are going to get it in both holes.  The 2000 crash was bad enough in that regard; the echo effects of that doubled property taxes in many areas.  This is likely to double them again which will render a large percentage of those properties worth an actual zero on a discounted cash-flow basis.

  • The left will go back to their violence -- in spades.  When they don't get what they want because the Senate won't pass anything stupid the riots and "black lives (don't) matter" thugs will be back.  By summer when it's nice and hot and the Covid scam has evaporated all manner of "fun" will break out.  Notice how it all disappeared literally overnight?  Well, that's because they thought they had a seat at the table and would get not only hand-outs but their communist agenda.  They don't and never did.  Whoever thought they were buying said seat by burning cities and minority businesses had rocks in their head; they in fact likely got charged several Democrat House seats.  The left loves to claim the "far right" is the violent group and goes on a shoot-n-riot spree but that's always been bull****, all the way back to The Weathermen and even before.  Simply put when the "Far Right" gets mad enough to actually do something you'll know because structure fires started from chopped-up children stuck in ovens set on clean will occur by the hundreds or thousands along with other acts of well-targeted extreme anger in which the actor does not care if they get caught and in fact expects to -- they only care about the score they achieve first.  There are always a few lone crazies on both extreme ends but they pose no real threat; when it comes down to it the stock in trade of the Communist isn't removing people from the playing field via well-targeted fear and even direct assassination campaigns -- it's general mayhem that is intended to destabilize society as a whole.  "Defund the police" is equally-stupid for the same reason; oh, so you defunded the police?  Well who's going to arrest the gang-bangers who are having a shoot-a-palooza on the corner over some random drug deal and how many 3 year old kids get killed by said poorly-aimed fire?  What do you think the people who live there will think about that when it happens?

  • We learned on Christmas that the fraud and rot reach all the way to emergency services.  We'll pay for that in 2021.  The Christmas morning bombing in Nashville exposed a very ugly truth -- AT&T got a contract for emergency services all over the country that, among other requirements, included redundancy.  Not only did they not have it in the Nashville area the failure extended across four states; all the way into Kentucky, Alabama and the western corner of Virginia, including Knoxville, the NE part of Tennessee and elsewhere.  Ten guys with intent to attack that infrastructure nationally could literally destroy emergency communications for days across virtually all of America as the redundant switching and pathing that was promised in those contracts was not built and delivered and it has now been conclusively proved.  The CEO of AT&T, every person involved in that contract including the Governors, Mayors, FEMA and others should have been instantly arrested and indicted but of course none were or will be.  The problem isn't just the theft of money for services not performed; the far more-serious issue is that every American enemy, foreign and domestic, now knows how to cripple our law enforcement and emergency service communications and it will take years to rectify this if it's done at all.  The most-likely outcome will be exactly what happened in 2000, 2009 and with the election: They'll ignore it and nobody will spend a single day in prison for it.  It would not surprise me one bit if one or more of those enemies exploits this in grand fashion this coming year.

  • We were taught political violence pays off and is worth the (meager) investment; what is demanded when backed up by a riot, arson or looting is delivered by the politicians.  In city after city and state after state riots and arson following people getting shot because they pulled a gun on a cop, fired at a cop or were otherwise not actually "oppressed" resulted in defunding of the police, "new rules" that prevent enforcement of the law against violent criminals or worse. May God have mercy on the souls of politicians and those on the left if the rest of America, not the nutjobs who inhabit the wild-eyed crazy brigade, take this lesson to heart and decide to use it as a means to get rid of corrupt, tin-pot dictators at the local, state and federal levels along with those in the private sector, especially the rich *******s who profited mightily while destroying the middle class and small business.  This sort of lesson, by the way, is exactly how you get a dirty civil war.  While it's not an odd-on bet and thus not a prediction the odds of this happening in 2021 went from a background level of "1 in a thousand" to more like five to fifteen percent, which is not a trivial level of risk.  All your "preps" in the world, by the way, are worthless if this sort of crap starts to happen.

  • The bond market will appear to be stable.  It's not and I give it 50% odds of having the lid come off in 2021.  The Fed's repo game disappeared from the news but didn't disappear in fact.  The underlying instability is still there; beware in that the reason this occurred in the first place was the wild mismatch between actual supply and demand that always occurs when insane deficit spending is going on.  To a certain point it's absorbable especially if property value continues to expand in that there's at least an asset behind it with someone willing to go into hock to have it.  This does not apply to stock prices; they can and do shoot the moon into the maw of a fiscal collapse and have in multiple nations.  Expect exactly nobody to give a wet crap about this especially if the Senate confirms Yellen to be Treasury Secretary, and they probably will -- after all, they were all willing to line up on their knees to give her pleasure when she sat at The Fed, so why would it change now?  If it comes apart it will be Yellen that causes it.

  • Strum and furor out of DC -- but damn little actual change.  If the bond market doesn't blow and the money printing doesn't go bananas that's actually a good setup for the stock market.  Unfortunately it's bad for small business and virtually everyone else.  Big social media will not change a bit.  Nor will any of the data collection and exploitation.  The biggest problem with social media is that the entire premise of "targeted advertising" is to connect you with things you would buy and not with things you won't.  That's the entire reason it exists.  The problem is that it's not limited to "buy" in application nor can it be, which is an intractable problem whether self-imposed or enforced upon you.  Never mind that the firms that run it have their own agenda, of course, which they're free to express and will.  Not one move was made during the previous administration to separate out utility style services (e.g. pipes, DNS, hosting, etc) from consumption services (e.g. Facebook, Netflix, etc) and it certainly won't happen in this administration.  Why do you think they prohibited slaves from learning to read in the South?  You think the "farm system" these companies have set up is really much different from WALL-E's "CONSUME!" chairs?  Ha!  Absent mass-revolt of some sort such as targeted boycotts and shunning aimed not just at these firms but derivative acts on all the advertisers, their employees and families there is no amount of pain that overcomes the money.  And no, the "alternatives" (e.g. Parler, etc) are not any better; it's just a different ******* in the left seat.

  • My cat will remain my best friend.  While Hell may indeed freeze over and things could change in that regard I will not hold my breath waiting for it to do so as I would be very likely to die of asphyxiation if I did.  'Nuff said.

We'll leave it here for the time being but I may add a few more bullet points before the end of the year.  For other than typos and similar once January 1st comes, however, whatever is on the page is what it is.

Let the scoring begin!

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2020-04-15 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 244 references
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Folks, this tinfoil garbage just won't quit.

Look, I get it -- people love to find something to blame, and "oh, it was a bioweapon" is one of the common ones going around, along with "it's triggered by 5g!" (which is just flat-out horsecrap.)

The problem with bioweapons is that they're doomsday devices in that they have a 100% chance of scoring an "own goal."  To prevent this you must first have a vaccine with 100% coverage on your side so your people don't get the bug, and that vaccine must have permanent immunity.

Let me repeat this for you just in case your IQ is smaller than your shoe size: There has never been a successful attempt to prevent the spread of a virus beyond some arbitrary line on a map.  Ever.  Even in the days of old before international commerce and easy air travel it never worked.

Second, if you were going to create a viral weapon the last thing you'd use is a coronavirus.  Why?  Because despite decades of trying there has never been a successful, durable vaccine for a coronavirus either, so the odds of scoring such an "own goal" are in fact 100%.

Coronaviruses not only infect people they infect animals.  We have tried to create vaccines for animal husbandry and pet purposes on multiple occasions, and have failed every time to obtain permanent immunity.  We have also wound up creating amplification effects by accident too; the poster child for this one was a feline "vaccine" that actually wound up amplifying the effects of the virus instead of attenuating or preventing infections!  This is why, by the way, that there is no reason whatsoever to believe we will ever have a permanent vaccine; despite attempts in both animals and humans we've never succeeded before with this particular type of virus.

Now is it entirely possible -- even probable -- that this specific virus was an accidental release?  Yep.  In fact I'd say it's more likely than not.  That's the "civil standard of proof", and it's present.  Why?  Because this virus behaves like an attenuated live virus, but not attenuated enough.  For those who think that sort of idea is crazy I remind you that we've used that exact concept for decades with oral polio, and it works.  So the theory that this was an accidental release from Wuhan's lab and they were working on a vaccine for SARS, for example, is not crazy.  The only crazy part is that their odds of success were near zero in the first instance, but scientists try to find breakthroughs in things that appear to have a near-zero probability of success all the time.

But a bioweapon?  Nope.  There are plenty of candidate virus families to use for that sort of thing, if you're into attempting it. 

Coronavirus isn't one of them.

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2020-04-14 15:24 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 395 references
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The data continues to come in and is clear.

Not only are the hospitalization requirements from nursing home and other "skilled care" institutions for elderly people ridiculously over-represented (in every state where I have found detailed information by forty to fifty times or more their percentage of the population at-large) but they are also ridiculously over-represented when it comes to deaths, usually by the same percentages.

Without these deaths and hospitalizations and deaths, in fact this disease would be of no special concern at all.  Oh certainly, it would kill some people -- but by no means would it rate as a serious public health threat worthy of closing the entire economy and causing an economic depression.

It wasn't originally either, by the way -- this hasn't changed.  "Mitigations" will not change if you will get the virus; that has been admitted since this began.  They only change when you get the virus.  If it's going to kill you, it's going to kill you.

So the plan should have been, and we the people should accept nothing other, than the following on an immediate basis -- under pain of whatever we have to do to enforce it.

1. All skilled nursing home and other similar facilities are locked in.  This includes staff; if there is insufficient housing then rent some RVs or other trailers, stick them in the parking lot, and there you go.  Nobody comes in or leaves unless they have a positive antibody test and a negative PCR test, demonstrating they cannot transmit the virus.  Any staff member who refuses is summarily fired and, if they are a licensed individual, their license is revoked.  Deliveries are made to the curb of the facility with zero contact between such persons and the staff.  Period.

2. Any person who can demonstrate immunity may enter upon and leave said facility as they wish; this includes visitors, workmen and others.  No other person, except in the case of documented emergency (e.g. plumbing malfunction,  emergency transport of a resident to a hospital, etc) may do so and any person who must for emergency reasons must be screened on-site for the virus before being allowed in the building.  If this is impractical (e.g. EMS workers) then the entire path on which they travel and any location where they or any of their equipment goes must be immediately sanitized upon their departure by a person who is antibody-positive.

3. A person (e.g. resident) who leaves may not return until and unless there is a 14-day quarantine facility on site with completely separate airhandling and no physical interconnection or they test positive for antibodies, documenting that they do not have a latent infection that can become transmissible.

Everyone else goes back to work and all constraints otherwise are dropped.

If we had done this at the outset we would have saved roughly half the lives lost thus far and more than half the hospitalizations.  There would have been zero justification for locking down anything.  Likewise, there is no justification for doing so now.

People in this circumstance account for approximately 1/2% of the population of the nation.  We are being collectively punished to "protect" these people and not only are we failing to do so, as they're dying at ridiculously outsized rates, in addition collective punishment when one has committed no offense is both blatantly unconstitutional and a proper casus belli.

Again, there is no particular problem with hospital capacity absent these individuals and, in addition the mitigation measures not only cannot prevent you from getting the virus they were never claimed to be able to either; the entire justification for them was to avoid overloading the hospitals.

Well, that's how you accomplish that -- and any politician who is empowered to drop the constraints and doesn't must be immediately ejected from their office and our economy restarted now.

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