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2019-06-15 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 653 references
[Comments enabled]  

Those who believe there will never be another recession are flat-out insane.

The business cycle has never been repealed.  Every person who has predicted that someone has "conquered" it over the decades has been wrong.

Let me repeat that for emphasis: EVERY PERSON who has made such a prediction or claim through the last roughly 100 years HAS BEEN NOT ONLY WRONG THEY'VE BEEN DISASTROUSLY WRONG.

It won't be different this time around.

What is different is that through the last 40 or so years we have allowed the Federal Government to run enormous and continuous, compounding deficits.  This has propped up asset markets to a tremendous degree but it has impoverished more than 90% of the population of the nation on a progressive and rapidly-increasing basis.  Like all exponential series it started small and while there were a few who raised an alarm about the behavior of the government and Fed they were not listened to since the immediate impact was too small to be considered serious.

How do you get there from where we were?  How do you wind up with a population that cannot manage to figure out the forward implications of an exponential growth policy in debt?  How is it that the fundamental relationship between two exponential growth curves where one has a larger growth percentage than the other, is mathematically certain to destroy you if you don't cut it out is not universally understood by those with an IQ over 80?

If it is understood by those with an IQ over 80 and the outcome is a mathematical certainty then why isn't there an immediate uprising by the citizens if any government attempts such a scheme and if they refuse to stop when peaceful protest is lodged then whatever becomes necessary to enforce that demand is used?

After all if you're inevitably, under the laws of mathematics, ****ed if someone doesn't quit doing something who gives a wet crap if you are forced to engage in broadly and even outrageously illegal activity in order to stop it?

If you had a bunch of government people twiddling with ever-increasing amounts of enriched Uranium in the middle of your town square, adding one gram per day to the amount they're playing with and refusing to stop when you pointed out that they were inevitably going to irradiate the entire town and kill a huge number of people if they didn't cut it out would you not, at some point, shoot them? And if that wasn't enough (e.g. they found another government employee to continue onward) why would you not go full-on medieval in response?

What sort of mental defect do people have to have, en-masse, to sit back and let this happen?  It's not like there aren't historical records stretching back more than a thousand years that prove the laws of mathematics are not suggestions and that every single nation that has ever gone down this road has undergone an economic -- and often societal -- collapse that has killed millions.

Far worse than economic crashes this crap nearly always leads to either war or a totalitarian government that winds up murdering huge swaths of the population, starting with those who were the biggest useful idiots promoting their schemes -- and sometimes both!

As it stands now The Fed and Federal Government have "no bullets" for any sort of real economic dislocation.  We've spent that ammunition propping up asset prices over the last two decades through both Republican and Democrat administrations, neither of which have done anything other than expand said federal deficit spending both in good times and bad.

The premise of "counter-cyclical" monetary and fiscal policy that our government and Fed claim to employ is an outright fraud.  Keynes himself pointed out that during booms you must run a surplus and pay down federal and state debt so you can borrow the money once again when the inevitable bust comes.  That part of his premise has never been taken; instead what's called "Keynesian" economic policy is to always and everywhere expand federal deficit spending and The Federal Reserve has always backed that policy by tampering with interest rates so it can continue and accelerate.

Indeed The Fed's Bullard was just out essentially advocating for more of that crap!

Bill Clinton did not run an actual surplus -- not even for one year.  He got close, once.  But his alleged "surplus" was an accounting trick foisted on the American public by stealing the Social Security and Medicare tax deposits!  That fraud has continued ever since and each and every year Treasury breathlessly reports a "deficit" number that is a fantasy-land lie, made smaller in each and every instance by stealing tax deposits intended for two programs that are supposed to be funded on an actuarial basis.

Multiple attempts to hold Treasury to that promise, including a couple that went all the way to the Supreme Court, have been thrown out.  But whether the Supreme Court recognizes an actuarial and fiduciary duty to those paying in is a function of whether you can individually sue (nope, say they.)  It does not change the outcome for society as a whole because no court judgment can change the laws of mathematics; as a nation whether you individually can compel government to stop blowing money with regard to your specific paid-in amounts or not is meaningless in terms of the inevitable outcome for everyone and the nation as a whole if they do not stop doing it.

It's nice to blame the public schools for this and some blame indeed resides there.  We hire "teachers" for mathematics in Middle and High Schools, and demand every kid take those classes, where the mathematical principles of exponents are explained.  But not one of them, in schools public or private, ever goes into how that applies to our government's fiscal behavior at local, state and federal levels, nor have I ever seen the inevitable outcome of what the government has been doing for the last 30+ years graphed out for young people to understand in a school -- nor have I ever seen our kids be forced to show they understand on a test and ultimately on the semester final exam, what will happen to the nation they are citizens of if they, and the rest of the population, does not force the government to cut that crap out.

Do you blame them?  The teachers, as a group, are one of the biggest beneficiaries of these unsustainable and fraudulent set of government policies!  You don't think their failure to teach the kids that they ought to consider a no-bull**** revolution on their 18th birthday if peaceful attempts to stop this crap fails is a simple mistake, do you?

A better question than simply blaming self-interested educators, however, is why don't you teach your ******n kids this ****?  Why did I have to figure it out on my own?  Why did not my father, who was a CPA, explain it to me roughly about the time I fixed his Burroughs bookkeeping machine's accounting software to update its tax calculations, saving the firm he worked for thousands of dollars?  Was that because he knew good and damn well that he had voted for policies and supported politicians who stole his alleged "annuity payments" and spent it on other crap, and were printing deficits to make up the difference?  You tell me -- as a CPA do you think he didn't know?  Of course he did, and when I had an infant daughter crawling around on his living room carpet some 20 years later and confronted him with this fact, pointing to her as the person who would ultimately get it up the ass until she could taste it as a result of what he was not only remaining silent about but actively supporting and voting for do you think he gave a wet crap or apologized?  Nope; he in fact maintained that he deserved to be allowed to assrape her future.

And thus we didn't talk for ten years after he ran that crap on me; I got in the car with my kid and left.

My father got lucky on time.  He died and then my mother passed before the compounding they both voted for, which wound up roughly doubling the property taxes on their home between his death and hers, destroyed her ability to live out her life in reasonable comfort.  My booze and drug-addled sister didn't help matters, but even without her draining resources had my mother lived another ten years, which was not high probability but certainly was possible, she would have been eating catfood.  My original projection for the foldback point -- in 1995 when I started tracking this, and when the crap hit the fan before roughly 2000 in my parent's home -- was 2025.

It now appears that 2024 is pretty much when the crapshow starts in earnest and it will get rapidly worse once it begins since the people in this nation have no balls, deny math on a repeated, daily basis, and will not insist that this garbage stop.  Gee, I was off a year or two.  Such a terrible thing math is, right?  We've really done so much to change the trajectory!

I got the hell away from Chicago before it really hit the fan there and the doubling of property taxes occurred on my house.  Thank God for small favors and a few people doing really stupid things that resulted in my being able to depart and raise my kid in peace.  She, now an adult, gets it because I drilled it into her.  She appears to have judged, as I have, that there's no point in starting a fight over this so long as all but a handful of Americans don't give a flying **** since a single person's peaceful, lawful effort to do anything about it is pointless and anything that's less than lawful and peaceful simply gets you dead-right-now and/or labeled a criminal (or even a terrorist) and thrown in a cage but will change exactly nothing in terms of outcomes.

Among her age cohort up to about 40 around here I cannot find one other person that gives a flying **** about any of this including those with children that are already here and who will take the brunt of it before they reach adulthood.  Nor do the "seasoned citizens" give a flying ****; when I nailed Matt Gaetz with the ignobility and illegality of what the medical system was doing to this nation and pointed to the fact that the Supreme Court has twice ruled it illegal in a town hall meeting full of Seniors exactly zero of them rose from their chairs to back me up and demand it stop nor did even one of them come talk to me about it afterward and ask for details and my body of evidence, which I was fully prepared to provide.  Gatez, for his part, said he'd get back to me and was given a business card.  He never did, of course; he lied about that too.

Those Seniors are all clones of my Dad and they all deserve to burn in Hell after their children and grandchildren throw their asses into the street to live under the Brooks Bridge overpass without so much as a refrigerator box for shelter.

If you think this isn't going to happen -- when the laws of mathematics say it most-certainly is -- then go ahead and live in your fantasy land.  Get good and drunk -- or stoned -- and stay that way just like the homeless winos under that bridge.

It's your best and highest calling.

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2019-06-13 16:16 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 328 references
[Comments enabled]  

Let's play the same game as the left.

Oberlin College has now been found responsible in a court of law for false accusations of racism.

A jury nailed Oberlin College and the college’s vice president and dean of students, Meredith Raimondo, with an $11 million penalty for siding with three black students who claimed they were racially profiled at a bakery in 2016. The case got press and there were massive protests targeting the bakery – and not just by students, either.

The dean distributed a flyer, claiming the bakery had a history of racism. And he encouraged a boycott. The bakery went through hell, for obvious reasons.

And then today the jury nailed them with a maximum punitive damage award as well -- another $22 million plus attorney fees and costs.

Those who worked at Oberlin and remained after this happened have voluntarily thrown their hat in with the Dean and the school itself.

Those who were enrolled and remained enrolled after this happened have voluntarily done so as well.

I therefore call for all persons who were enrolled and remained so after this incident occurred to have any earned "credentials" put into the paper shredder; in other words, render this "college" useless as an academic credential forevermore into the future.  Destroy the college and all of its graduates.

Extend that to the Dean and all of the faculty and staff who remained and did not immediately quit.

We the people have the right to take this judgement rendered by a jury and extend it by finding that conduct unacceptable, making clear we will not associate with those who falsely claim "racism" as a means of attempting to coerce people into not prosecuting or otherwise acting in a lawful manner against those who commit CRIMES.

That's what's involved here folks -- the students originally involved committed criminal acts against the bakery.  The bakery acted within the law to have those students punished.  The college attempted to extort the bakery by claiming they were racists.

The first rule if someone attempts to extort you is that you never pay and you never do whatever the extorting individual or organization demands.  Ever.  You either tell them to pound sand and walk away or, if you so choose, you go after them using every legal tool at your disposal.  Extortion is both a civil and criminal act, and if any sort of interstate communication tool is utilized -- such as the Internet, the phone or the mails -- it's a federal offense.

As a body politic we have every right to decide under the basic principle of freedom of association -- which includes the right not to associate -- that we assign zero value to any such institution and anyone who works for it, now or evermore into the future.

The correct example to set here is to apply such overwhelming and destructive, but lawful, response so that others do not dare try the same thing as they know damn well that the very same lawful retribution can be turned on them.

PS: Covington Kentucky Kid up next..... and there's going to be ruination coming for a few there too, I suspect....

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2019-06-13 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 136 references
[Comments enabled]  

There is no longer a defense possible for Roe.

The bill, effectively immediately, repeals a 1975 Illinois abortion law. It eliminates spousal consent, waiting periods, criminal penalties for abortion providers and restrictions on abortion facilities, such as licensing requirements and health and safety inspections. It also repealed the state's Partial-birth Abortion Ban Act and establishes "that a fertilized egg, embryo, or fetus does not have independent rights under the law, of this State."

Ok.  Incidentally that's not much more than NY passed, but it is more-broad.

The point is simply this: There is no longer any reason for Roe to exist on the books; overturn it now.

We are supposed to be a nation of 50 state political laboratories.  If you want an abortion you can now have one at any time up to and including while being in labor.  Just go to Illinois; that law has taken effect immediately.

Note that unlike every state that has gone the other way there was no instantaneous lawsuit filed seeking an immediate injunction to stop this from going into effect.  It's law, here and now, in Illinois.

Here you have it folks; this is Federalism in all its glory.

The Justices should immediately overturn Roe and return this issue to the states.  Those states such as Alabama that wish to criminalize abortion at any point can do that.  Georgia can have its "heartbeat" bill, as can others.

Both New York and Illinois can permit abortion at any time, for any reason, up to the moment of a baby drawing its first breath.  The Constitution clearly says all born persons are entitled to protection, so therefore you have a hard, bright white line.

Do I think Illinois is nuts?  Yep.

Do I really care?  Nope.

I left.  I knew Illinois was nuts.  But that's fine; the entire point of Federalism is that if I think a state and its government is nuts I can move to a different one; I have 49 more to choose from.  I can keep doing this if I must and there are fairly decent odds that I'll die before I run out of states, should they continue down paths I personally consider to be crazyland.

State laws constraining or even banning abortion outright are no real concern of people who believe in personal autonomy and accountability.  Everyone has the right to travel for personal reasons on an unrestricted basis between states.  Bus tickets are cheap -- cheaper than abortions, by far.  There's no barrier to any woman who wishes to procure an abortion from getting on a bus, in a car, in a train or on a plane and going where she can have one.  There are now two states that have made them available right up until labor begins, and one that allows abortion even after labor begins so long as the child has not drawn a breath.

The left has what they want in Illinois; unrestricted abortion at whim and at any time.  What they can't have, and Americans should be willing to risk death if it becomes necessary to stop them, is forcing their radical views down every other state's throat.  This applies not only to abortion but also to Illinois' -- or California's -- belief that they can spend money they don't have, including on things like health care for illegal invaders, and then force the Federal Government to bail them out.

Federalism is worth going to war over, in short, and if we cannot have Federalism in peace because the left will not allow it then I'm up for the other, sadly necessary, alternative.  In point of fact our Constitution demands exactly that of each and every one of us.

This isn't, at its core, really about abortion at all.

It's about the founding principles of this nation and the binding contract between the States and Federal Government -- a contract that the people have every right to enforce by whatever means may be necessary.  One cannot both believe the American Revolution was just and produced a valid result and that the people do not retain the right to enforce the limits of Federalism and The Constitution as written including enforcement via the means the Colonists employed.

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2019-06-11 11:10 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 151 references
[Comments enabled]  

Let's face it -- Pelosi, AOC and the rest of the Democrats and Republicans absolutely love human trafficking.  So does Trump.

Central American crime lords, gangs, and small time operators profit up to $2.3 billion moving Illegal immigrants into the United States, and collect even more from road “taxes” used by smugglers, according to a new study of the business President Trump is seeking to shut down.

Migrants, paying $3,000-$10,000 each, can choose “pay as you go” or “all-inclusive” packages that include travel from their home, not just through Mexico, said the report.

None of these people have $3,000, say much less $10,000.

None of them are paying in advance, or "as they go" since they don't have any money, and they certainly don't have that much money.  Hell, half the people in the United States can't come up with $400 for an emergency!  Do you really think any of these so-called "migrants" have ten grand?

Stop the lying folks.

These people are all promising to pay later and the enforcement comes with a threat to murder one's family if they don't.

This can be trivially shut down -- all of it -- immediately by putting a stop to the cross-border cash flows by anyone who is not a lawful permanent resident or citizen, without exception, including so-called "asylum seekers" without impacting one single lawful actual sender of funds across a border.

Nobody is going to put that sort of cash out there that's traceable to them and thus must have been reported as income unless they're legally here and paying taxes.  Shut the "money transmission" garbage down unless the person sending it has proof of citizenship or lawful permanent residence and track all such transmissions by person and for anyone sending over $600 a year, which is the reporting limit for 1099s, enforce that as well.

End of problem.  In one day.

Trump won't do it and neither will either political party because they are all, every last ****ing one of them, very supportive of human trafficking including child sexual exploitation and rape.

Pelosi, Schumer and even Trump himself all support human trafficking and even******of children -- and that's a fact.

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2019-06-09 11:23 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 260 references
[Comments enabled]  

The so-called "deal" to stave off Mexican tariffs is a scam.

First, there's no evidence required before the tariffs were dropped.  That alone makes it a scam.  Mexico has every reason to keep the over $20 billion a year flowing in from the US to "families" -- many of them coyotes.  It's a huge percentage of their economic "progress" and they will not stop it.

That, incidentally, would be the simple way to stop all of this crap.  Shut off the money.  Make it illegal to send money out of the US unless you are a lawful permanent resident or citizen and impose 1099 requirements on anyone sending more than $600 a year.  To do that you have to keep records, and you have to demand identification.  Doing that shuts down the coyote payments and thus most of the so-called "migrants" since there's no way to pay the coyote once said illegal invader gets here.

Second, these "caravans" are a scam.  They're so easy to find that if Mexico wanted to shut them down completely it would be trivial to do so.  They don't and haven't.  The token show of "force" will do nothing.  Mark my words.

We'll see.  If the numbers for June illegal border crossings are under 10,000 I'll tip my hat to Trump as "success."

But it won't be -- it's virtually guaranteed not to be, because Trump didn't insist on verification before the tariffs were suspended and thus he won't get anything more than what Mexico was doing before the threat.

You #MAGA idiots, on the other hand, also won't stop giving Trump fellatio for yet another fold.  The line forms here and I'm going to sell kneepads.

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