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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work becasue under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-13 16:02 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 83 references


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2020-07-13 08:12 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 611 references
[Comments enabled]  

Oh look, more excuses...

Just a few months back, some scientists hoped summer conditions might help tamp down coronavirus transmission.

Studies have shown simulated sunlight can inactivate the virus on surfaces and in the air, and one study found the virus deteriorates much more quickly in warmer temperatures than in cool temperatures. Some of the other coronaviruses that have long circulated in the population tend to peak in colder months and wane in the summer months, and some thought that summer heat and humidity could work to slow the spread of Covid-19.

Some of the other coronaviruses?

That's a lie.

Every virus that is airborne follows the laws of physics.  Why?  Because they're natural laws, that's why.  They're not The 10 Suggestions any more than gravity is.

We knew in the middle of February this virus spread in scat.  Why?  Because in multiple incidents, including one in Hong Kong, people who did not know each other and lived ten floors apart in apartment buildings got the virus at the same time.  It is implausible that such events could have occurred due to "respiratory droplet" spread; to do so they would have had to have been in the same place at the same time and had the potential to have said contact with one another in a reasonably close and continual basis for at least some material period of time.  That didn't happen so that means of spread is not possible.

So how did the transmission happen?

The building did not, as is common in that part of the world, have "P-Traps" on the sinks.

You don't smell sewer gas in the US because it is code to have P-traps on the sinks and other fixtures connected to the sewer line.  The water trapped in the "P" (or "U") keeps gas from coming back up into the building.  But in many parts of the world there either are no traps as originally installed or people illegally modify the plumbing to add another fixture or other thing, and don't put one in.  There is no compliance monitoring and this happens all the time.  In both these cases the people infected were on the same sewer line and there were no traps on the sinks.

I noted this at the time in my podcast and wrote about it as well.  We knew at that point that the only plausible explanation for how these people got the bug was that (1) it was in crap and (2) it was spreading via other than direct contact with same.  It was that and Diamond Princess that convinced me that this bug was being spread via feces and the galley/food staff were the primary vector.  This, by the way, is the same mechanism by which norovirus, which is common on cruise ships, spreads.  We have since confirmed it is in feces and in fact MIT and others have proposed that we can detect outbreaks in a community before they hit the hospitals by sampling sewer lines.

We've deliberately ignored this evidence for the last five months.

Masks do exactly zero to inhibit fecal/oral transmission.  In fact they are very likely to enhance it since you're more-likely to touch your face with a mask on.  What's worse is that anything less than an N95 is worthless against aerosols, whether as source control or as PPE.  This is well-understood in the scientific literature.

This isn't an error -- it's intentional.  You can't possibly believe that the so-called "experts" did not know that which was in evidence the first few weeks of February and "accidentally" ignored it when said reports were in the public media.

Further, this completely explains the wild spread in nursing homes where some 40-odd percent of the residents are incontinent.  You know, scat-in-the-pants?  How's your laundry-handling procedure in said places to prevent cross-contamination to the poor bastard in the next room?

And it explains why as absolute humidity has risen the virus was not inhibited as everyone expected.  Indeed, it was enhanced.  Why?  Does scat smell more or less in the summer heat?  Is it more or less-likely to wind up on you?  Does norovirus rip through cruise ships in the Caribbean in the summer months?  Did polio do the same thing all summer long?


And by the way the "indoor out-your-mouth" explanation doesn't wash.  Flu and cold don't spread like crazy even indoors in the summer for the same reason.  A/C units remove a huge amount of the suspended water vapor; indeed, nearly all of the power they consume in fact goes to remove said water vapor, which incidentally contains the virus, and down the drain it goes harming nobody.

This also explains the wild spread once it gets into the hospital systems because exactly zero precautions have been taken against transmission from scat including rabid hand-washing with soap and water despite the fact that in SE Asia they figured this out in their hospitals almost immediately and when they did so both their infection and death rates went to nearly zero as did their rate of transmission to health-care workers in the hospitals themselves.

We've ignored it and so the virus has ripped through our communities.  The places where it has not haven't had material penetration into those places.  So long as that holds while an area may have a lot of "cases" they aren't serious and don't kill people.

Further, we know there's a very high level of innate immunity and have since Diamond Princess.  Despite being quarantined together in their cabins only some 17% of the people on board got sick.  It's impossible for two people to be quarantined together in a 10x10 cabin for two weeks with zero PPE where one gets it and the other does not unless the second person is inherently immune.  Therefore we know there is material cross-immunity to this virus -- we just don't know what produces it.

We've known all of this since February folks, and have intentionally ignored it since that time.

Masks do nothing folks -- in fact they're likely worse than nothing for these very same reasons.

If you wish to wear a mask, have at it.  If you believe they will improve your odds of not getting the virus then go ahead and wear one.  My read of the evidence and science is that they do nothing at best either as source control or PPE and thus I decline because from my read of the evidence, which matches that of The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, they increase rather than decrease my personal risk of contracting the virus.  The name for masks and gloves is "PPE" -- personal protective equipment.  If your analysis comes to a different conclusion then you should wear whatever you want.

Politicians and so-called "experts", including Fauci, killed your grandmother.  They did it by maliciously and intentionally ignoring known facts along with ignoring the laws of physics.

Never mind the "warp speed" nonsense for vaccines; the science is that there has never been a successful, long-term protective vaccine against any coronavirus and some intended for animals have made infection worse, including killing the subjects.  This doesn't mean it's impossible but the science is that it's not going to happen no matter how much money you throw at it and worse, short-circuiting any of the normal procedures that exist for safety reasons is flat-out stupid and has an unacceptably-high probability of killing more people than the virus ever could.  In fact we did the exact same thing with HIV/AIDS and AZT, Dr. Anthony Fauci was one of the primary proponents of that "fast track" authority and we shoved 450,000 Americans in the hole who died of AIDS.  As it turns out AZT not only was worthless against AIDS it directly harmed and killed people because it directly attacks both T-cells and the bone marrow.  Oh, incidentally, that same Dr. Fauci promised us an HIV/AIDS vaccine for more than 20 years.  Where is it?

These were not "mistakes" this time any more than it was the last time around; this was a willful and intentional refusal to fit whatever belief you come up with against known facts and, if the facts cannot be reasonably explained by your alleged means of transmission then what you're alleging is wrong.

Now we're being told there are going to be no schools, we "must wait" for a vaccine, we must wear a diaper on our face despite the fact that your underwear does not stop a fart and everyone farts an average of 15 times/day, we won't demand that people wash their damned hands with soap and water, especially in hospitality and health care environments, instead relying on BS "sanitizers" and we continue to cater to the REEEEEEing nutjobs who are egging all of it on.

There's not one lick of sense left in America nor any willingness to hold public officials accountable for their acts of destruction of both the economy and people.

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2020-07-11 11:21 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 167 references


Not your cup of tea?  Look here!

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2020-07-09 19:01 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 1765 references
[Comments enabled]  

Fact: Sweden has had 74,333 confirmed cases

Fact: Sweden has had 5,500 deaths.

Fact: Sweden has approximately 10 million residents, with the largest number by far in and around Stockholm (~2.4 million..)

Fact: Sweden did not lock down anything, has not passed any mandatory mask ordinances or constrained the people.  Instead they told their citizens to act like adults, rather than allowing them to be infantile screaming children (as we did here in the US.)

Fact: The death rate in Sweden from Covid-19 has fallen to an effective zero.

Fact: The case rate in Sweden is also falling precipitously.  On a log chart the case rate is effectively flat.



That's impossible, for a virus with an R0 of 3.0, right?

I don't care what epidemiologists assert, or what anyone else asserts: It has happened.

When you eliminate whatever is not possible whatever is left must be true, no matter how much you'd prefer it not be.  Your task then becomes to determine why it is true.

We know from the CDC that somewhere "around" 10x as many people have had Covid as have tested positive.  This number is somewhat "fuzzy", but that's the CDC's (and everyone else's) "best guess", given the data we have.  Now, in the US, we're pushing people to get tested but we can't feed that test requirement on a reasonably expeditious basis; three months into this it is taking multiple days to get results back.  Therefore the number of alleged "positives" is not only fanciful it's outright garbage.  RT-PCR tests are unreliable to start with; they have a material false positive rate.  But if you won't test people on a systematic and unchanged basis from a symptom (or not) predicate then the data you generate wobbles around and is worthless.  

I've detected a number of these anomalies in the data here, and in the early days I called bull**** on the Wuhan data for the same reason -- China was clearly changing the terms to get tested although I couldn't prove it, because I'm not there.  I don't need to prove it; a virus does not "magically" infect people on a step-function basis.  Over a large population that does not happen so when it does you've got a data discontinuity -- that is, what you have is junk.

But it's very hard to not count bodies.

People get mad if you don't count them -- or try to count them twice.

Sweden has had 5,500 deaths.  They have 10 million people in their population.  That's a death rate from this bug of of one in 1,800, with virtually all of them being old and co-morbid individuals.

To put in percentage terms it's a rate of 0.06% in the population.

Or, if you prefer, since we have about 330 million citizens, about 33 times that is 181,000 deaths in the US.


We're at 125,590 total today.

That's because we spread it out, but didn't change a thing.  Ultimately, we'll wind up about where they are.

I remind you that yesterday their total was one death.


For them, it's over.

For us, it's nearly over.

We're three, maybe four week behind them if we quit dicking around.

How is this possible?

Because we are counting only "positives" that result in serious disease (as were they) and there is a serious amount of pre-existing immunity in the population, which exactly none of the models or any of the so-called "experts" said there was, and in fact today they they say there isn't.

Yes there is.

We knew this.

We knew it was a fact.

We knew it in early March.

We knew it within a week after Diamond Princess disembarked, when one person in a 2-person cabin got it, and the other did not.

They were  not just asymptomatic, as we tested them -- they never got the disease at all.

That's impossible, unless they were immune.




We don't know what bug caused them to be immune, but they are.

And thus nobody knows who is immune and who is not, but the fact that a huge percentage of the population either will not have any symptoms at all or won't get the virus at all is known.

That's scientific FACT.

Now recompute your "models" for what we know is herd suppression in Sweden among those who will care if they get the bug -- that is, those who will die.

Nobody gives a wet crap about someone who gets it and doesn't get sick.


Being RT-PCR positive for a virus DOES NOT, legally, medically or otherwise make you diseased.

You're only diseased if a disorder in your body is produced.

In a healthy human adult man there are approximately 39 trillion bacteria.  Right now.  You expel some ten trillion when you take a crap, but they recover -- and quite quickly too.  By the next day they're all there again and the band plays on!

If none of them produce a disorder in your body you are not diseased.

If you "get" Covid-19 but do not have a disorder as a result you are not diseased.

It does not matter if you can "pass it on"; you shed many millions of bacteria and viruses from your hands, mouth, nose and ******* every single day.  Most of the ones on your hands came from one of your other orifices, or someone else's orifices, or from some other organism who left them for you on a surface somewhere, or which were floating around in the air.

So what?

Folks, we're being stupid here.  You're hiding under your desk when five to ten trillion bacteria are in your body right ****ing now and virons typically outnumber bacteria ten to one in nature so it's probable there are 100 trillion virus particles in your body!

It's entirely reasonable to believe that one crap from an average human may expel ten or more trillion virons.

And virtually all of them will be replaced within the next 12-24 hours before you take the next crap.


May I note that IPV, used for polio (you know, the shot you get?) does not stop you from getting it?  In fact you probably did -- and do -- get it.

Oh, you didn't know that?


The IPV stops you from getting diseased.  That is, having a disorder as a result of exposure.  How do we know this?  Because if you have taken IPV you may still get colonized and expel polio virus -- live virus -- in your feces.

Do you know why they give you oral (live) polio vaccine in the third world?  There are a fair number of unvaccinated people and OPV will reduce the shedding from your feces -- since you take it in and the immune reaction is centered in your digestive system -- to an effective zero.  IPV does not do that because it's a shot in your arm.

Would we count you as a "polio case" if you had it in your feces but never got sick?


Guess what?  That's a scam, it's a lie, and you had ****ing better wake up and make them stop this ****.


If you have no disorder in your body you are not diseased.


No other definition makes any sense given that if I go take a **** right now I expel trillions of viable viruses and trillions more of viable bacteria.  I, you, and everyone else expel and shed virus and bacteria all the damn time, every single day.

Only illness matters.

And, in the end, only all-cause death matters.

Which, in the US, is now below baseline.


There is no longer a threat in the United States. Indeed with all-cause death now below baseline it is quite probable that by the end of the year there will be no excess death at all, statistically speaking.

Yes, people have and will die.

People die every day.

But the rate of death is below baseline for this time of year.

Dead is dead, why doesn't matter.  How much virus I have, or which virus, doesn't matter unless that specific virus makes me ill.

That specific virus out of the trillions of virus particles that are in my body right now, and in yours, and in everyone else's.

These are facts.

You can take your hysteria -- and your masks -- and shove 'em up your ass.


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2020-07-07 12:18 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 127 references


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