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2022: The Year In Review, And Burning Of Bridges; entered at 2022-12-29 15:58:16

Edward.fish
Posts: 651
Registered: 2021-12-17

Tickerguy wrote..

My base case is at least five years of suck and the odds of a Depression level suck (10ish years) is rising fast.

@Tickerguy -- I have no real timeline guesstimate to offer, but I am of the opinion that we will see major missteps, at the government, and corporate levels; missteps along the lines of the Depression where one of the big policymakers of the time, afterwards, said that all their policies deepened and/or prolonged the Depression. It really depends on the speed at which those in leadership/authority positions unlearn what's been "normal" for certainly 20 years, but arguably 40.

This is why I'm rather pessimistic on the first round of "Oh, no we've got to cut DEI/ESG!": the management has been so trained to myopically look at the short-term that I think they've lost the ability to even consider medium-term, much less long-term. -- A LOT of employers have, likewise, been trained (by the job-market and impacts of government policy) to undervalue employees: just look at the "unskilled workers"/trades & illegals or the tech-sector and H1Bs... the point is, things have been very unbalanced in favor of the employer for so long that the prospect of employees "doing the job, but not volunteering for more" (i.e. "Quiet Quitting") is enough to prompt outrage. -- The system must be just, balance must be restored, or else the machine will tear itself apart from the stresses.

The biggest thing standing in the way of correcting all of this will be pride and arrogance: how hard is it going to be for admins and leaders to say "I was wrong."? -- Given the lack of introspection, the myopic immediate-term thinking, and the amount of bad-decisions they haven't been held to account for, this is likely going to be a long and hard lesson.

2022-12-29 15:58:16