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| User Info | 2022: The Year In Review, And Burning Of Bridges; entered at 2022-12-29 15:39:03 | |||
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Tickerguy Posts: 203958 Registered: 2007-06-26 
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So.... yes and no. What he misses and I did too originally is trade sequestration. It's what made the last 20 years happen and possible, but that's gone. That, ultimately, is what prevents The Fed from trying to blow another bubble as there's no means to sequester the inflationary impact which was done over the last 20 years; as the economy grew and offshoring increased the simple expansion of volume (NOT "hoarding" of dollars or "reserve" anything) kept the inflationary impact muted and thus the inflation went mostly into asset prices -- which a lot of people REALLY like. The Ukraine thing destroyed that and its not coming back, as now RISK in accepting dollars is known and unacceptable. Ergo, it won't happen anymore because on a risk-adjusted basis taking dollars no longer makes sense. So NOW deficit spending causes inflation in the US economy. No escaping it. And there are huge parts of the federal side that are unfunded; CMS being the one that really matters. It is both where you MUST fix it AND a political third rail, which is going to make for some verrrrry interesting times. This trade preference will ALSO force production back into the US, but of course not all at once. Nonetheless that's a good thing but during the interim things are going to suck in a lot of places. The highest "at-risk" areas of the economy are health care and so-called "green" energy (and its use, such as EVs.) They were the biggest beneficiaries and they thus got the bubble blown the largest, so the air that will come is greater in volume. 2022-12-29 15:39:03
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