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User Info	2022: The Year In Review, And Burning Of Bridges; entered at 2022-12-29 13:26:03
Raven Posts: 18164 Registered: 2017-06-27 Farthest Right	It is hard to argue with predictions, and those presented here by Karl make sense. As for the past predictions and hit and misses, either way they are an exploration of facts valid in and of themselves and for learning. So, i want to contribute a few of mine. The latter with which i might do something. Here goes. Within the next three years we are going to see home-country terrorism committed by average Americans. There are a lot of people in lower level positions of authority who effectively forced people to "do" things which harmed them and their loved ones. We have an aging population of parents who might get old enough to not care much more if one of their children were harmed and those who are in their last days of illness, unbearable, who want to settle the score. We are speaking about even simple corporate managers who terminated people over the vexxine turning the key to their cars one day and ... Regarding the above people are going to target the loved ones of the big names. The desired target might not be easily accessible (although many truly are), however their families and descendants often live very normal and mundane lives. School principals, doctors, nurses, this will not be in general but rather where a target was the proximate cause of a vexxine injury and used an authority position to enforce mandate. Administration of institutions will also be targeted as well as retired local and regional public officials in person and as described above. I do not advocate for this, however am seeing the signs that this is a reasonable possibility. A quiet lone actor cannot be stopped, and due to the nature of the offenses there are too many potential vectors to police. Next is what i call the great hold-out. These are two groups, the desperate and the deluded opportunistic. This is also closely related to my final prediction. People in a variety of situations: holders of assets, accustomed to expecting cyclical bubbles, assumption of return of ridiculously low interest rates, those who have sustained massive investment losses, those accustomed to debt as a method of financial bailout, members of the rentier economy, those in ruined retirement or near it, those depending upon cash out of assets to retire, make horizontal moves, fund lifestyle or simply survive, those who cannot face reality, etc. I think that i have said enough and please include assholes of all of these kinds who have an assumptive attitude and think that things are owed them. Do not go further until you completely read and reread the above list and get a feel for the stories of people. Here are two potential examples, perhaps three if my fingers hurt less. Case one: a 65 year old who cannot liquidate a property for enough to fund lower level living for expected remaining lifespan, has lost significant financial asset base to fund later life and has ongoing medical expenses of moderate type not limiting functionality. Let's add in that primary residence requires capital investments due to age and deferred maintenance, COL is rising in said area and the person(s if spouse present) would like to do certain things in retirement. This describes a huge actual existing population thereabouts this age. My advice to the above person would be to turn everything to cash NOW, find a lower cost area which is a good retirement option (COL, age-in-place, climate) and find some reasonable work where 10-20% savings is possible. They 65 yr old example instead figures that he or they can hang on for three to five years when things change, not a good plan but human nature. Experience has shown that people will hold out for fear of losing a potential gain. Now apply this to many age ranges who also depend upon a cyclic bubble cycle to bail them out or yield profits. Remember that people are accustomed to this and feel that they have mutual political pressure to get their way. Here is another example. Property owners with a poorly executed capitalization plan. This means that the numbers really never worked as good planners would advise. The properties run on fumes, translation: near zero maintenance, upgrades and repairs and not capital set aside for said, they have or have not debt with the former being a not good situation obviously, they rely upon an overpriced rental market. You get the idea. How many of these folks are going to want to give up gains in equity or market value? Even if they can get out breaking even, get out of a bad situation, move on in life to real business and work, the same factor as above holds them back. They feel that they merely need to ride out X period of time for the next cyclic bubble. The more desperate their situation, the tighter they will hold. This is especially true if a low interest rate environment allowed opportunistic assholes to acquire that which they never would have otherwise, mix in a sense of entitlement and not wanting to be in the worker category of life. It will take five years of sustained high interest rates and the example that no matter how bad the economy, low interest rates cannot and will not be used to jump start it. In addition, closely related to the last point, they must come to the realization the low interest rates are seen as not viable and banned from returning. Think that this education is going to come easily or quickly? Already last month my contacts in the RE Industry and many new friends local to me have said that there has been an explosion in seller financing where the seller grants a lower rate. How many different kinds of stupid is this on both sides? All just to hold onto something not real and pretend a future which cannot thus will not be. This last example will be both sides playing a game of chicken or do not blink, whatever. There will be mistakes in both groups along the way as well as political pressure. Aside: ten percent money is really a good point to start this debate along with proper lending regulation and enforcement. The politics of the above are going to harsh too, keeping the holdouts holding out. In times very unlike these i have seen asset holders sit on terrible situations, amazing losses, in the hope that money will fall from the sky. A person with no other options palatable to him will ride the only hope that he has in his mind. I coined a term "Loser Lord" a long time ago along with a few others. Remember, they have been bailed out so many times that others never in the business kick themselves for not getting in on the gain. Now the side which has been at their mercy is going to hold back outside of those who have made some terrible decisions. Aside advice to any outside of property ownership and reasonable tenancy costs: BE MOBILE AND UNINVESTED IN ANY COMMUNITY. Go on a moment's notice. And, a big part of this dynamic and the above discussion of improperly setup capitalization plans: DO NOT maintain, improve and fix your landlord's property other than cleanliness and basic dignity. If they left you a barren rubble-strewn rear yard, you better like it that way. If the bathrooms are falling apart, even needing simple re-caulking, don't fix a thing other than washing them. Walk on plastic if you must. Same with every other system and do not ever sign a lease requiring said fixing and improvements. Don't even paint. I know hard. Wash the walls once and don't shit them up. Let the place get dingy, but be super clean. Window treatments in the lease are shot, don't replace, hang a sheet, get creative. Why the assholery above in the context of being a great and reliable and responsible tenant. Let the Landlord see that the place is getting older, they are not going to get better rent and selling YOUR upgrades and maintenance is not possible. Let them see a tired property. There is a lot to this game, too much for here. It is used to highlight how landlords actually think and their assumptions regarding easily acquired assets when the world was going their way. See how much you have to do to fight it? Shows how entrenched the mentality. Ok, that is enough. I'll get to the third prediction later in a subsequent posting. 2022-12-29 13:26:03