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2022: The Year In Review, And Burning Of Bridges; entered at 2022-12-28 18:05:45

Abelardlindsey
Posts: 2597
Registered: 2021-03-26

Quote:

Any shooting war with actual uniformed American casualties involving Russia or China and you have a very high probability of needing SPF 5000 sunblock.

Everyone knows that too so I rate the probability low -- except via a chain of mistakes, which is always possible.

I see four scenarios in descending order of probability:

1) The Ukrainians get their butts kicked just like the way Scott Ritter and Douglas Macgregor talk about on Andrew Napolitano's "Judging Freedom". We accept the lost, pressure Ukraine into cutting a deal with Russia, and then walk away and never talk about it. Kind of like Afghanistan a year and a half ago.

2) We escalate and it turns into a Vietnam level event until, once again, the Russians kick ass and we withdraw, just like in scenario #1.

3) Through a series of mistakes, we end up in a WW1-like clusterfuck which may or may not go nuclear. Even if it does not, all of the major power's economies end up hosed for a very long time (10-20 years) just like all of the European powers after WW1.

4) A nuclear war. There's nothing to be said about this one.

Like I say, I think option 1 is the most likely scenario for this coming year.

About the nuclear thing, I don't think the Russians will start a nuclear war if they are able to get what they want without one. I'm more concerned about our arrogant, narcissistic political class going nuclear than I am of the Russians. I don't think this will happen. But I am skeptical and dubious enough of our political class that I have very little confidence in them acting rationally and prudently.

I think the Russians will win in any conventional scenario because they are there, have the troops and materials, and most importantly the troops knowing they are fighting for the Motherland. If we sent troops over there, what are they fighting for? George Soros's global social engineering schemes? Its an easy guess as to who will fight harder.

2022-12-28 18:05:45