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User Info	2022: The Year In Review, And Burning Of Bridges; entered at 2022-12-28 10:59:04
Kennington Posts: 462 Registered: 2013-09-12 Pittsburgh, Pa	@Tickerguy...."You have too many digits in your DOW number" which was...(25K)....Make sure my math is right here, and let it be said I'm mostly in agreement. Dow Jones top...39,952.65, single digits equates to 9999.99, ergo 9k but really 10k minus a tick. Therefore... 9,999.99 / 36952.65 = 27.1% or expressed another way, a 72.9% decline for the Dow from top to bottom. For perspective, I've followed John Hussman throughout the years, who I greatly respect...here are his latest comments from December 2022. As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history. The apparent shallowness of this loss isnt a sign of resilience. Despite being nearly a year into what we expect to be a far deeper retreat, the relatively shallow loss isnt even surprising. The same thing happened in the first year of each of the three deepest post-war stock market collapses: 2000-2002, 2007-2009, and 1973-74. He goes on later in the article to write...For our part, our most reliable valuation measures imply negative 10-12 year market returns, and a potential market loss on the order of -60% from current levels over the completion of the present market cycle. The Dow closed on December 16, 2022 at 33,202.22. By his measure a 60% reduction in the Dow points us to approximately 13,280.89. In your latest blog you wrote, "The market is not done going down. Yeah, you didn't like that decline did you? It's not over. Trust me, I know both sides of this argument having been both an employee and a CEO, but what's happened over the last three years is egregious and outrageous -- and has consequences. I'll be specific: We'll see at least another 10% decline from prices as of 12/31 sometime during the year, and a 20%+ decline is not off the table, or I won't take the point". I'll take the under on the 2023 prediction if any of this is remotely true... 2022-12-28 10:59:04