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Fact: There is no immunity or protection against The Law of Scoreboards.
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User Info Simply Put: FUCK YOU; entered at 2021-08-21 20:30:31
Bluto
Posts: 1900
Registered: 2021-07-10 FEMA Region 4
@Thethreeputter

This has me confused also. The numbers just don't add up. The following quantities MUST all add up to 1:

-- Percentage of population immune due to natural immunity (NI) gained prior to 1/2020
-- Percentage of population immune due to prior infection (PI) of China virus
-- Percentage of population immune due to vaccination (V)
-- Percentage of population susceptible to virus (SUS)

The first three of these numbers must be multiplied by an "efficiency" factor. We know natural immunity is (or was) durable and the number of folks who "got" Covid twice is statistically insignificant. So those efficient factors are basically one. Here is the formula now

NI + PI + V*veff + SUS = 1

PI is anywhere between 0.1 and 0.3 per CDC estimates from February. Let's pick the middle value of 0.2

We know NI to be about 0.8 per Diamond Princess.

And V is about 50% (0.5) of the population

0.2 + 0.8 + 0.5*Veff + SUS = 1.5 + SUS (assuming Veff is 100%) No way. Math doesn't work. Let's now de-rate NI by 50%, which is on thin scientific ice since it flies in the face of evidence from the Diamond Princess.

0.2 + 0.4 + 0.5*Veff + SUS = 1.1 + SUS (assuming Veff is 100%) Nope. That doesn't work either

So now let's assume the effectiveness of the clot shots are 50%. This gets a little dicey since this value is time-dependent. But let's go with 50% just to run the math:

0.2 + 0.4 + 0.5*0.5 + SUS = 0.85 + SUS. This means 15% of the population is susceptible since early this year. But about 10 million have gotten Covid since February, and multiplying by 3 (per CDC estimate in February) gets you to 30 million, or roughly 10% of the population. This means only 5% of the population is susceptible to the China virus, which cannot be correct. We would not be seeing rising cases in most states if this was the case. The virus would have burned itself out a long time ago.

Hypothesis: there is a variable in here that is actually "subtracting" from one of the values. The vaccine is very likely taking the NI group and destroying their natural immunity.
2021-08-21 20:30:31