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User Info Well, Duh. This Is Why It Was Stupid; entered at 2021-08-02 20:21:34
Posts: 23
Registered: 2021-07-22
Another possibility, and this may not be a popular one, is that the resurgence we are seeing in a lot of places is a result of reopening. Dramatically crushing social interaction can actually bring R_t down a lot, and in fact it is undesirable precisely because it can actually bring R_t down a lot -- not just because you want broad natural immunity to develop, but because you bring down R_t by killing yourself and your country. I even think good masks sometimes play a role. Obviously there is aerosol and oral-fecal transmission, but I'm not sure that good masks don't somewhat reduce the exposure dosage, and somewhat reducing the exposure dosage is associated with a milder disease on average.

None of this is to say either masks or lockdowns were a good idea, just that they may have worked for the very myopic ends for which they were used, and we are reaping a more acute version of what was always in store for us had we continued with life as normal.

I think average social interaction has been increasing very rapidly over the past 3 months. I easily see about double as many people on a daily basis as I did in March or April, and the people I see themselves see many more people, and much of it is indoors. Until recently R_t was suppressed and cases are rising now that that suppression has been released. That is a good thing, and if it is so then it is inevitable.
2021-08-02 20:21:34