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User Info *****-19 -- A White Paper - To @RealDonaldTrump and @CDC; entered at 2020-12-03 20:14:55
Tickerguy
Posts: 180134
Registered: 2007-06-26
@Royhobbs - No.

Silent infections (asymptomatic) will never be caught, statistically-speaking.

In Japan the asymptomatic ratio appears to be close to 100:1! There is a relatively-recent (September) serological survey out of Tokyo that strongly suggest (underpowered, so the CI is wide) that 50% of the city has been infected (!!!) yet look at the "cases" and deaths in Japan. That's a city with an INSANE population density, yet nobody is dying.

It's not age or certain specific morbidities either; Japan has a somewhat-higher rate of both hypertension and diabetes than we do, and is OLDER in population strata. Well now.

There's is exactly zero evidence that the asymptomatic ratio is under the original proposed; in fact all the evidence is that it is understated, but I refuse to apply that as a hypothesis without something solid to do it with. Nonetheless that's their number, not mine.

Further the very definition of "infectious disease" is that you can CULTURE whatever it is in the person you test "positive." If you can't then the claim is a lie. Period. Yet the science is that only 3% of the samples at Ct35 can be cultured, and at Ct40 it is a statistical zero.

That in turn means that at Ct40 you're picking up cross-contamination in virtually every sample where the person is not atypically symptomatic. And since *****-19 has symptom patters that intersect with other viruses, including common flu, rhinoviruses, etc -- unless you CULTURE IT or look at it under a SEM and identify it conclusively as *****, absent atypical symptoms (e.g. CT with "ground glass" infiltrates in the lungs, loss of taste and/or smell, etc) there's simply no way to claim that a given "positive" really is.

The proof is easy -- if it REALLY IS *****-19 then in 2 weeks you'll be IgG positive. Every time. If you're not, it wasn't *****.
2020-12-03 20:14:55