The decks they're playing with are full of cards that you cannot comprehend.


Nor should you if you have a rational mind.

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Stay out of the blast radius.

We will not have a military engagement with China. No need, China will play the long game with Taiwan. Eventually Taiwan will willingly join with the CCP. Each generation, they are a little more infiltrated by the CCP and more sympathetic to the CCP.

CCP does not want to take the losses necessary to conquer Taiwan militarily. Taiwan has offensive weapons that can hurt the CCP. Taiwan is an island of mountains. Taking Taiwan by military force means the CCP gets an island of rubble.

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'Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right' - Gerry Spence

The Russians will be the last to use nukes. The Motherland is downwind...

As to politicians having full decks...?

Tickerguy gave a nice, accurate, succinct answer.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.

Quote:

They're not.

David Goldman (aka Spengler) who both owns and occasionally writes for Asia Times, said in an opinion peace about 6 months ago that many people he's known for years up on "The Hill" are loosing their minds. What he meant was that these people have always been rock-solid stable and level headed and are now loosing their rationality because they cannot accept emotionally the fact that the U.S. is slowly declining and loosing influence internationally. They appear to be having a collective temper-tantrum over the slow loss of influence over the rest of the world. Needless to say, I did not find this reassuring at all.

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Its all in the mitochondria

Quote:

Unless the Russians are truly that inept militarily, this will be a slow, steady grind. And lots of money to be made by the MIC, kickbacks to the big guy and friends from giving the crackhouse of Europe billions of our tax dollars per month, etc.

The Russians are slowly, steadily grinding up the West's military supplies and economies. They'll likely just keep doing that as long as the West will keep on arming Ukies and sending them to be slaughtered.
The looting class in the West keeps on sending arms and money to encourage the slaughter of Ukies because it's wonderfully effective at getting power and loot into their hands. Never mind the damage it does...they don't expect to be inconvenienced by it.

I think most of the politicians in the USA are in denial, oblivious, refusing to figure out what's really going on, blackmailed, too much to lose, and/or stupid to see what's happening. It's been over 19 months since I was last in the USA. I would divest out of the USA if there was a way for me to easily convert the bulk of my assets (and future Social Security & Medicare "rights") to something abroad without taking a huge hit on transaction, commission, tax, etc. expenses & then being able to keep it off the radar of the IRS. I've always been one to follow the rules with integrity. I did well doing this. It really helps my self-esteem knowing that I never fear an IRS audit (as I'd pass again with no issue just like I have multiple times in the past) or have to worry about creditors or other legal issues miring me (unless they were pursued by liars) because I'm clean. However, I see the day is coming where the people in power will likely go after people like me with a vengeance, even though I got where I'm at through hard work, thrift, sacrifices, and honesty. I'm in my early 50s and I could still work another decade to accumulate another million or more. What's the point if it'll put a bigger target on my back and create plenty of risks along the way while I give up 25,000+ hours of my precious time for possible bosses (most likely young millennials who got their position through Wokeness rather than merit)? No thank you.

Any predictions on where unemployment will be?

Higher.

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The end of an Empire is always hard on the couturiers.

The truly scary thing is there is a lot of fall left. Reading about the end of other empires (Rome, Byzantium, Great Britain, etc) I get the feeling we are not even into act II yet of a three act tragedy.

On the military front, I am always amazed how much old crap the military claims is fully ready. Hell the Navy retired the littoral ships 3 years after commissioning! I hope no one here is on the new B21, as I bet that bird is going to have issues.

Tickerguy wrote..

Buying more than you reasonably expect to use it a material and recurring waste of money.

That accounts for a good chunk of overgrown pickup and SUV sales. However, Stellantis (of which Chrysler is a part) is considering closure of the plant in Belvidere, IL due to poor sales. Not long ago they were selling every Jeep Cherokee they could build there.

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"The stock market isn't bullish, it's bull$hit." -- Alan King

Nelsom:
"The Russians are slowly, steadily grinding up the West's military supplies and economies."

YES.

Putin learned from what the US under Reagan did.

American "leaders" of today either never learned the lesson, forgot it, ignore it, or some combination of the previous.

Putin is not going solar and wind, and shutting down carbon. Which means Russia, while it maybe bleeding slowly, will not exsanguinate before we do.

In the mean time, we drive them closer and closer to China and India, who both look at "climatidians" not only as the morons they are, but as customers, prey, or both.

Winesorbet wrote..

Any predictions on where unemployment will be?

Tickerguy wrote..

Higher.

@Winesorbet, @Tickerguy -- In one of my recent posts, I mentioned that management cutting out DEI/ESG could go poorly if the management-class either goes overboard or misunderstands the HR-as-cancer situation. Given the lack of redundancy for productive-types*, which management justified as cutting out unnecessary-expenses (after all, the salary of the DEI/ESG hires had to be paid) it would be rather easy for them to get "overzealous" and cut out productive people to the degree that it harms the body-corporate, perhaps to the point of collapsing it.

The nightmare scenario would be the "chain reaction" where company die-off causes other companies to die off because they were dependent upon the first company. In that case we could see a full-blown economic collapse.** / Given the inflation we're seeing, and the increase we're likely going to see (as Karl predicts) from the government spending and Ukraine BS, this has a higher probability than is comfortable. (And, it actually is an excellent proof for encouraging mid- and small-business while preventing big/monopolistic business that we see now.)

A third factor to consider is how "admin-heavy" some places are; education and government especially have a VERY heavy admin burden and a LOT of it is useless and distorts the marketplace just as DEI and ESG do, albeit in different ways. (DEI is about BS like "50% minorities!" while admin-heavy tends to be about the political power-squabbling and fiefdom-building.)

A fourth factor to consider, and it's tied to being admin-heavy, is how the admin-class will likely never admit fault, mistake or malpractice, instead blaming the workers, the economy, government's policies... anything but the admin-class. (Actually, you can see this starting now: just look at the horrified reaction to "quiet quitting", which is just "sitting down, shutting up, doing the job, and not volunteering" -- it's actually quite interesting, in a schadenfreude sort of way, how they'll twist everything to demonize the worker, refusing to look at the employer's contribution to the situation/relationship.)

Employers have been signaling that they are unwilling to consider employees' (and customers, in the case of majorly ESG-corrupted like Disney) in the relationship -- well, the beatings will continue until the situation improves.

* My last job is a good example: I was one of four people operating a telescope that "on full power" provided full-time work to 40+ people. The admin thought that our skeleton-crew's skeleton-crew didn't need more people because we were producing data... nevermind the fact that if any one of us were to get in a car-accident or something that's 25% of the workforce gone.

** And, to make matters worse, the instincts of those in power will be to Do Something! rather than let the whole thing take care of itself free-market style. (i.e. The Calvin Coolidge approach, as opposed to the now-ingrained OMG-The-Great-Depression-DO-SOMETHING[-and-make-it-worse] approach.)

Any predictions on the rollout of US cbdc this year? Ive wondered if it could be rolled out in some form of stimulus. I want neither but am concerned.

Can't argue with your predictions and in no way could I come close to your 60 percent if I put a dozen of my own out there.

I agree with your sentiments on Amazon but feel that retail in general and as an extension commercial real estate is in big trouble in 2023 as well.

On Monday my wife talked me into going out for some Christmas gift replacements (same gifts for Grand Children were given by the other side of the family at earlier family Christmas get togethers). Dreaded going out as day after Christmas shopping used to be a nightmare of crowds and chaos. Not this last Monday, almost all stores were deserted, and parking lots were empty. The Stores themselves had half backed mark downs as well with inventory all over. Feels like the pull back of the American Consumer along with higher corporate interest for financing (you have already mentioned this) is going to impact this sector bigly.

Appreciate these columns the most as they help me with my own personal planning for the upcoming year.

Quote:

The end of an Empire is always hard on the couturiers.

The truly scary thing is there is a lot of fall left. Reading about the end of other empires (Rome, Byzantium, Great Britain, etc) I get the feeling we are not even into act II yet of a three act tragedy.

On the military front, I am always amazed how much old crap the military claims is fully ready. Hell the Navy retired the littoral ships 3 years after commissioning! I hope no one here is on the new B21, as I bet that bird is going to have issues.

Well said. We're not out of Act 1. Further, I don't think we're 1/3 into Act 1. We have a long, long way to decline. Will there be a rebound after hitting bottom? Sure. Then we decline some more.

On the .mil front, do we have any frigates? Answer (2) the newest is an FFG, USS Constellation class. Two more on order, none active.

The second? USS Constitution, one of the United States original six frigates.

The B-21? Great. How many can we afford? How many defensive weapons can be bought for 1/10th the cost of one airborne platform, many of which could be launched en masse for a fraction of the cost of the plane, repeated until airborne threats are no longer all of a piece?

Quantity has a quality all of its own.


We are damned short on quantity, let alone quality.

There were FIFTY ONE Perry Class frigates, the last of which was decommissioned in 2015. The newest of those was commissioned in 1989, and scrapped in 2014, well short of its design lifespan.

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Stay out of the blast radius.

The flood/invasion of illegals will overwhelm our system. We are at the breaking point if not passed it.

Most people in the USA have no idea what is happening at our border.

I think the ignorance of the people of the USA will increase, because too many are mesmerized in their technology toys.

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(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select yo

What about famine? The fertilizer shortage this year will affect yields next year. Think we'll see more food riots in the third world? Maybe even some rationing in Europe?

This was another great prediction Ticker, and many thanks for all that you do Karl.

It is greatly appreciated.

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The bullshit stops when the money runs out, and not a moment before.

I'll make a prediction. The Architectural Billings Index drops every quarter through 2023 and Arch and Engineering firms start to have the first no bullshit layoffs since the 2008-09 recession.

Tracking pipeline in my studio and hearing from others inside and outside the company it's just a few bigger projects keeping people going. Lots and lots of "kicking the tires" from clients but with current construction costs and rising interest rates the pro formas aren't penciling out. I don't expect that to change and the easy money is gone. Even the municipal work from City/County/State flush with Covid bucks seems to be already accounted for. Not expecting to see many of those big tower cranes on skylines in the coming years.

Bluto,

Quote:

What is wrong with philately?

Don't know. Why, did he go postal again?

Agreed @Aquapura


I think it gets very sporty around May.

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2 + 2 =5

Yep Quik. Got a developer that has financing that'll keep me busy until end of April. Most things we are pursuing the boss man and I chat about and usually conclude "it's not real."

If it comes to me being a neighborhood handyman, so be it. Could be worse outcomes in life.

My vaticinations for 2023:

Ukraine will continue to be a quagmire with the possibility of being another Afghanistan; the US and Russia have a familiar pattern to fall back into. US service deaths will be minimized by the fawning press as 'advisors lost to secure democracy'.

Consumers will continue to get squeezed between high prices and lack of supply. Amazon will continue to contract operations and local retail will get looted into oblivion.

Inflation and interest rates will rise sharply as Congress continues to spend like a drunk with a stolen credit card. Powell's tenure will be criticized as a Trump apointee, Biden's reconfirmation conveniently forgotten. Congress will make noise about wanting to replace him.

Stocks, bonds, and crypto down sharply. Metals will have a small bump but nothing worthwhile. Crypto regulations gain steam in the legislatures, IRS enforcement ramps up for small transactions.

Housing will start to crack up, prices will fall but not fast enough. Lots of shadow inventory will be kept off the market. Certain locales will institute eviction moratoriums.

Illegal immigration will accelerate. Lots of Chinese incoming to escape Xi.

Birth and marriage rates continue to fall in the West, sex dolls rise to fill the gap.

The suddenlies, cancer, and cardiac events become the Grim Reaper's most favored methods.

SBF will go missing either in life or from monitored release.

Karl will, sadly, not receive the visit from the Dallas Cheerleader squad he's been so eagerly awaiting.

Aside from that, everything is looking brilliant! The above mentioned comes with a money back guarantee if not satisfied, certain limitations apply.

From what I saw when I was on the ground in Kiev, Zelensky has the sort of support the Emperor of Japan had in WW2. Both the Ukrainians and Russia are prepared for deprivation we can't imagine. The are also both steeped in grinding hand to hand genocide posing as warfare.

Neither side will quit until they run out of shells. Or Crimea revolts.

As the economy tanks, Hunter Biden's laptop makes its way back into the news. This is the easier way to get rid of Xiden versus the Amendment 25 method. The Dems need to get rid of Kamala before they get rid of FJB. Unless the crashing of the economy and actual death of the USA is their ultimate goal.

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(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select yo