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 2022: The Year In Review, And Burning Of Bridges
Boredfree 1k posts, incept 2021-09-15
2022-12-28 10:53:47

Karl,
According to ex-spy and author John le Carre, the beauty of stamps is their value combined with their portability.

A person could easily carry a half million dollars in his wallet and a typical searcher would ignore the stamps.

I wouldn't mind an inverted Jenny...
https://postalmuseum.si.edu/topics/inver....

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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Disgusted 528 posts, incept 2021-07-20
2022-12-28 10:53:55

Calrissian, sorry to burst your bubble, but if the mukes start to fly; 50 miles isn't going to help one little bit. Your only chance of survival is to move to the southern hemisphere, and even then the earth will be a shitty place for a long time if you survive the initial blasts.

Not a prediction, but something I'd love to watch. Kameltoe stabs Shitler with a big fking knife right in the back at the state of the union address (because the clot shot destroyed the rest of her pea brain) and we get rid of both of them all at once.
Clyde 173 posts, incept 2009-08-19
2022-12-28 10:54:03

I switched a fair amount of my computer reading time to geopolitical issues
in the world.

What's your thoughts on USA hegemony days as being over. It seems to be happening right in front of our eyes, especially due to energy and the Ukraine.

Looks like not to many countries want to be America's whipping boy anymore.

China worries me.

Russia is a military power house on a 80 billion $$$ defense budget, our is closing in on a trillion $$$.
Do we even have hyper-sonic missiles.

But my first read is still the M-T in the am.

thanks for what you do.

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It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.

Samuel Adams
Tickerguy 193k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-12-28 10:56:30

@Boredfree - My father was quite the philatelist and had a fucking HUGE collection accumulated over the space of decades. He ultimately sold it all off; most of course were worth pennies, but a few.... yep.

@Clyde - I don't really care, for the most part, and consider autarky, whether voluntary or forced, to have a positive endpoint. Its likely to be forced in our case and be messy on the way there, but that's something we both deserve and can't get around having to deal with, and the timing on it is problematic to predict. I highly doubt, however, the sort of scenarios that people put forward (e.g. collapse due to people buying oil in other currencies, etc.) having anything close to reality behind them.

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The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Kennington 378 posts, incept 2013-09-12
2022-12-28 11:07:46

@Tickerguy...."You have too many digits in your DOW number" which was...(25K)....Make sure my math is right here, and let it be said I'm mostly in agreement.

Dow Jones top...39,952.65, single digits equates to 9999.99, ergo 9k but really 10k minus a tick. Therefore...

9,999.99 / 36952.65 = 27.1% or expressed another way, a 72.9% decline for the Dow from top to bottom.

For perspective, I've followed John Hussman throughout the years, who I greatly respect...here are his latest comments from December 2022.

As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history. The apparent shallowness of this loss isnt a sign of resilience. Despite being nearly a year into what we expect to be a far deeper retreat, the relatively shallow loss isnt even surprising. The same thing happened in the first year of each of the three deepest post-war stock market collapses: 2000-2002, 2007-2009, and 1973-74.

He goes on later in the article to write...For our part, our most reliable valuation measures imply negative 10-12 year market returns, and a potential market loss on the order of -60% from current levels over the completion of the present market cycle.

The Dow closed on December 16, 2022 at 33,202.22. By his measure a 60% reduction in the Dow points us to approximately 13,280.89.

In your latest blog you wrote, "The market is not done going down. Yeah, you didn't like that decline did you? It's not over. Trust me, I know both sides of this argument having been both an employee and a CEO, but what's happened over the last three years is egregious and outrageous -- and has consequences. I'll be specific: We'll see at least another 10% decline from prices as of 12/31 sometime during the year, and a 20%+ decline is not off the table, or I won't take the point".

I'll take the under on the 2023 prediction if any of this is remotely true...smiley




Disgusted 528 posts, incept 2021-07-20
2022-12-28 11:08:39

Regarding precious metals, I visited a few reputable coin stores before Christmas to get a few Morgans for presents and asked about premiums on Eagles. It looks like supply is tough these days because premiums were ridiculous. The spot price isn't even close to what matters. I only bought a few Morgans and had to pay close to $40 a piece for circulated junk. I'm not a bug, but I always liked the old 1800's Morgans just because; and it makes me wonder if the paper price is becoming irrelevant.
Tickerguy 193k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-12-28 11:09:37

Numismatics are like all things collectable and worth whatever some idiot thinks they are and will pay. Ditto for artwork, which is fine -- humans buy plenty of things because they like them without a care in the world for their utility value.

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The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Blue.ridge.steve 1k posts, incept 2013-02-02
2022-12-28 11:38:49

Im not sure support for Ukraine ends over the next year. Biden has gone full on retard in support and I dont think it ends yet. Also, the government needs a furnace for USDs and where better to grift from than military spending?
Kokobeware 441 posts, incept 2010-05-04
2022-12-28 11:38:52

TG; ever look @ diamonds as a long-term holding?
Disgusted 528 posts, incept 2021-07-20
2022-12-28 11:39:01

That's right TG, I just like them for their age and there is silver in them that can be used for industry or even jewelry, so they'll never go to zero like shitcoin or paper "currency" can.

One other thought rattling around my noggin this morning, and probably should concern everyone. If there is a mass awakening around the clot shot scam, the maniacs could easily decide that they don't want to be held accountable and decide to turn over the table by causing the Ukraine shitshow to go nuke. They are seriously that fucking nuts as far as I can tell. If they think they might lose everything, what's to stop them from killing everyone else with them?
Dbigkahunna 612 posts, incept 2010-01-10
2022-12-28 11:39:18

I am curious how the labor imbalance will develop during the coming year. Read the notice SWA put out about the Christmas Kerfuffle. Wonder how may present employees will say Screw It and leave. And the alleged pilot shortage does not look like it will be resolved.
Of course, by summer travel season, flight demand may have moderated.

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Blessed, Grateful and Living a Dream
Djsnola 342 posts, incept 2009-03-16
2022-12-28 11:39:24

So I take it you didnt buy any of Trumps NFTs Karl? lol hahahah
Iou 1k posts, incept 2009-03-16
2022-12-28 11:39:37

Thanks Karl for another year of guidance. 2024 is fast approaching at which time you will be proved right again to the detriment of us all.

George Orwell wrote..
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies
Porterhaus 11 posts, incept 2021-08-18
2022-12-28 11:39:41

My absolutely foolproof prediction for 2023: we will all continue to read breaking/developing news on other sites that we read on the ticker two years ago. THANK YOU Karl for all you share with us! Neck hugs to you.
Andrew 163 posts, incept 2014-09-24
2022-12-28 11:39:44

@Disgusted, the old Morgans are very neat.
I got a deal on some about a decade ago and they're just neat to ponder how many times they traded hands.
And also how long they lingered in the tube I received them in.
Maurevel 1k posts, incept 2009-06-14
2022-12-28 11:46:13

I think I misread the bridge burning title. You're not burning bridges - it means we past the point of no return. A while back.
Rickyd 1k posts, incept 2009-07-07
2022-12-28 12:03:22

@Karl

What will be the FFR on December 31st, 2023?
Dingleberry 677 posts, incept 2011-11-06
2022-12-28 12:03:29

Great synopsis of the political-economic paradigm challenges we have to deal with, although the last year really opened my eyes to how incurably ignorant the masses have become (i.e. emotive vs. scientific or logical reasoning). Now that the election is over and truth and facts should not need to be hidden as much by our esteemed propaganda-media complex, etc....one would think an awakening should occur except all but the most libtarded....but sadly this won't. For one main reason: the voting demographic is now solidly left. Specifically I mean most women, vast majority of minorities (increasing by the hour) and soy boy millennials and zoomers. Logic, reason and experience plays no part in their worldview. And they are the majority and will be going forward from here on out. They cannot be saved or reached. Thankfully most politics is local.

1. DEI is in fact "die" but that won't die this year. It will in time once the companies go BK....but not now. Plenty of fat in most corps. If you lived back when we had real recessions, you know what I mean. Twatter was just one example. All companies have this excess fat (i.e. anyone with a liberal arts degree----this means YOU), and certainly the gov does. But barring a severe economic recession, companies still need colorized hood ornaments to show how "diverse" they are. And keep them out of EO lawsuits.

2. Green energy is a complete and total economic and scientific fraud, but that won't stop this year either. The more pain it causes....the more we need to "invest". And blaming everything on globull warming, no matter how ridiculous. And it will be accepted by the aforementioned masses. A cult. It already is.

3. Dems will continue to try and usurp the Constitution with tyranny. If you live in a blue zoo with a democrat machine you know what I mean. There is a reason CA, CO, NY, etc. will never go red again. Once the corruption is established, the blue cancer kills any competition and drives anything decent out. But you will still get to keep your abortions, so that's a fair trade I suppose.

4. Our economy is global, and therefore relative. If Europe and Asia have massive geo-political problems, then that benefits the US and the USD. Inflation was bad last year. Imagine how bad it would have been if Europe was not on their knees (add a digit). Much of this was self-inflicted stupidity (i.e. sanctions against Russia). The US will continue to be the safe haven. My tin foil tells me this is intentional. Sucks to be them. But leftist stupidity has a price. And Europe is far, far left as a rule.

5. Our border will remain a line on a map, nothing more. The claims of "waycism" by the left for anyone endorsing even a speed bump at the border, and their media and cries of "save the childrens!". Then throw in the Mitt Romney repubs of the world who get to enjoy profits off of slave labor.

6. Trump isn't done. Vast majority of his endorsements got elected, and the abortion thingy (an unforced error) made hoe's mad and cost repubs. Now they can enjoy losing the rest of their freedoms. Besides, we still have two years until next election and that is a political eternity. DeSantis won't be able to withstand the withering onslaught that the media-DNC complex spews forth, not to mention the majority is now solidly left. The dems could nominate Fetterman and he would win. That is how they vote. You exercise discernment, they do not. Ever. If you have lived around them, you know this. Red areas will get redder, blue and purple areas will become bluer. Let them enjoy their local filth and corruption.

7. The left will continue to get the right to subsidize them at the federal level. Just happened with the Teamsters. Happens 24/7 with welfare. Student loan bailouts anyone? Anyone who ever believed the left's lies about subsidizing the right is a complete fucking idiot and should never have been born. But if you repeat a lie often enough.....

8. Gov shutdowns will be a thing again, but when it happens, the DNC-media led cabal will blame the right for any attempts to reign in even a dime in spending. This has happened before. And will again. And the repubs will cave due to placate the soccer mom and EBT crowd.

9. Sam Bankster Fraud will get convicted, but may not live to see a jail. He has a lot of dirt on dems. If history is any guide.....

10. The Ukraine is a gold mine for the MIC. Best to keep that gravy train running. And it will. By both parties.

11. The jab. The damage has been done. It will be gaslighted. Again, a cult. Reasoning does not apply. And if you have seen as many videos as I have of the jabbed with terrible side effects STILL not angry (nor their parents)....you would understand. The gov, the media and big Pharma went all in on this.....no, there will be no mea culpa. They would be utterly destroyed if they did.

12. Education. The fruits of the leftist takeover are now for all to see, from kindergarten to college. Enjoy your taxpayer-funded teen and adult daycare. Standardized testing is "wayciss" and being removed (after years of being dumbed-down). So good luck finding workers who can do the 3 Rs. Or voters who can use reason.

13. Will Brandon get impeached as most certainly should be? The FBI-Hunter-Big Guy laptop thingie come to light? And you thought Watergate was bad.....I suspect that will be negative.

Here is hoping to a bigger crypto crash next year, an even higher crime rate in blue zoos (they voted for it) and hope you all have a nice seat to watch it from afar!!


Forever_young 97 posts, incept 2022-11-22
2022-12-28 12:04:17

Everything you predict is not only plausible but likely.
And there are quite a few that are apparent to any who give things more than a passing thought.
To me, this means that there are those in power who realize it and need to create contingencies.
I think the covid reaction was a contingency to stop Trump.
I think the mandates were a contingency to avoid showing the vaux was not only worthless but harmful.
So now that we're hitting that realization to the blithering sheep, I've noticed the fear ramping up again: masks being promoted, "get another booster," and the like.

But it isn't going to work this time, it's too soon after the narrative fell apart.

To keep the fires from spreading, I predict the Ukraine war expanding beyond those borders and directly involving more nations. Our government wants a war economy to save it from the inevitable but this isn't 1939 and we don't build shit anymore. Since that won't work, I then expect a false flag within our borders blamed on white nationalism (bonus if they tie it to pro-Russians as well) to put the boot further on our necks.

I hope I'm wrong but this government is already illegitimate in my eyes and is why they are becoming more authoritarian with each action. This year won't be tge end game, but we're getting close with few opportunities to get off the path.
Ricrain 23 posts, incept 2009-05-04
2022-12-28 12:26:06

Karl,

I have a question. Given the predictions you make, what timing would you advise, or signals would you tell me to watch for before buying a new or slightly used car in '23?

Our immediate needs have changed late this year from a car for basic transportation to one with more utility value. I need to sell the coupe (a Mazda 6) and get a rolling box (probably a CX-5).

The closest Mazda dealer to us went from a near-empty lot inventory-wise back in May to fairly populated presently. Also, the twice-a-month letters offering to buy my car for nearly what I paid for it have stopped. I think better bargains are yet to come, but would like your opinion on spotting the bottom at the retail level.

FWIW: I've enjoyed your blog now for quite a long time now. So far back, I don't know exactly how many year-end predictions I've read (14 at least). We appreciate what you do.
Bzelbob 448 posts, incept 2021-09-12
2022-12-28 12:26:32

@Tickerguy - Ditto on the thanks for all you do!
Was going to post a point-by-point response but I don't need to. You're basically right on all counts. smiley

No short-term supply chain relief coming
Would give you the point here as I don't see how in the hell it can be "fixed" at the current time.

Credentialism of the so-called top-schools will deteriorate
Again, would give you the point for this because I think this in in progress right now.
The value of woke degrees is essentially zero and since discretionary income is way down I think 'College Collapse' is going to be in the news a lot this year.
The winner will be those Higher-Eds that reprice first, fast and furiously.

China
I take it there's still too much uncertainty to predict but will be *massive* influence if it does.
(Renewed Lockdowns or Trade War or Taiwan Invasion or Property Collapse, etc.)

Ukraine
Some people think that Ukraine can "win" militarily. WTF?
Right now it's only a question of what, if anything, that will Russia lose from the conflict.


The ForceMath will be with you, always.

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"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan
Dingleberry 677 posts, incept 2011-11-06
2022-12-28 12:26:45

@ thegreatunwashed,

I once listened to a very wise man give a lecture on how Uber-rich families maintain their wealth across the generations.

Three things:

1. Land
2. Precious metals
3. Art (not the Hunter Biden kind....the classics like Van Gogh)

He did not mention currencies as we know what happens to them.

Our forefathers knew. But we know better now, don't we?

Inflation is a game relatively few can win.....but in the end we are all dead anyways I suppose.
Tickerguy 193k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2022-12-28 12:27:51

@Ricrain I'm expecting reasonable deals mid year and in fact looking forward to them as replacing my half-ton truck with a 3/4 is something I am considering... But not at today's prices.

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The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Burya_rubenstein 2k posts, incept 2007-08-08
2022-12-28 12:33:27

Would just like to point out that the optimum time for Brandon to officially die for maximizing Cum-allah's allowable time in office is this coming January 22.
Querant 559 posts, incept 2021-09-19
2022-12-28 13:03:58

@Boredfree

"A person could easily carry a half million dollars in his wallet and a typical searcher would ignore the stamps."

Reminds me of the 1963 movie Charade, an entertaining example of why it could be risky to hide valuable stamps in plain sight.
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