Peterm99
10k posts, incept 2009-03-21
2022-12-30 12:54:44
IMO, any discussion of a rising or falling value of a dollar is utterly meaningless unless one adds a "compared to what".
Unless current geopolitical trends completely reverse, I expect that the dollar's rise compared to the Euro and GBP is pretty much a slam dunk. However, unless Russia engages in games to keep the value of the ruble down, I expect the dollar to continue to fall compared to the ruble.
In many ways, China's economy is a powerhouse, and, if it continues, one might expect the dollar to fall compared to the yuan. However, signs that many elements of China's apparent wealth are questionable (some mentioned previously) would temper such a rise in the yuan's value. Even more important though, a major part of China's economic strength depends on its ability to export "stuff" to the US and Europe and a rising yuan would seriously threaten that. IMO, China will experience a lot of pressure to take measures to prevent a rise in the value of the yuan compared to the dollar, although doing so would make acquisition of raw materials and other imports from other trading partners more expensive. Thus it is difficult to predict just what the relative value of the dollar will be compared to the yuan.
And then one hs to consider the value of the dollar compared to a "basket of goods" that we, as individuals, buy. As has been previously stated in other threads, as the US economy worsens, the trend is likely to be that necessities will become more expensive, while discretionary stuff will become cheaper. Thus, as we buy less and less of discretionary items, the value of the dollar will keep falling in relation to necessities we are obliged to buy.
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