@Tickerguy - Ditto on the thanks for all you do!
Was going to post a point-by-point response but I don't need to. You're basically right on all counts.

No short-term supply chain relief coming
Would give you the point here as I don't see how in the hell it can be "fixed" at the current time.

Credentialism of the so-called top-schools will deteriorate
Again, would give you the point for this because I think this in in progress right now.
The value of woke degrees is essentially zero and since discretionary income is way down I think 'College Collapse' is going to be in the news a lot this year.
The winner will be those Higher-Eds that reprice first, fast and furiously.

China
I take it there's still too much uncertainty to predict but will be *massive* influence if it does.
(Renewed Lockdowns or Trade War or Taiwan Invasion or Property Collapse, etc.)

Ukraine
Some people think that Ukraine can "win" militarily. WTF?
Right now it's only a question of what, if anything, that will Russia lose from the conflict.


The ForceMath will be with you, always.

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"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan