The point of mandating EVs is not to have everyone driving one. The point is that you won't have a car at all, you will use UberShare taxis or some such BS. Where you can go, and when, will be controlled by someone who is not you. This will all be done in a way that makes it seem as natural as possible, for plausible deniability. As others have said, take care of your current vehicles.
The bigger problem may become fuel. "Oh, we don't need as much gasoline anymore so lets force production down, $10 a gallon, 5 gallon limit per purchaser". It'll be like post-war Europe with people driving around with wood gassifiers, until those get banned too.
Regarding ICE vehicles. I blue booked my personal fleet (3) If you believe Kelley I can trade in my 2018 vehicles (low mileage excellent shape garage kept) a van and small SUV for what I paid originally. Actually would make money on the van. Thinking about it but I hate the variable transmissions so not sure what I would buy. The thought of getting a brand new vehicle with a warranty is enticing though.
The problem is you think that this is simply limited to people who did not take science courses or supposedly master them. Nope. I went to school a long time ago. My classmates who could do the same math as me believe this bunk, then and now. Surely there is a subset that does this for strategic reasons, but IMO not the majority or even half.
Ok, here is a good example. There exists a State of New Jersey where in my metro is supposedly the goto place for "good schools" which is why people tolerate their unbelievable property taxes. Within said state there is Middlesex County which supposedly has the best schools in the country. They have been over the past two years really promoting themselves as a technology worker magnet growing the electric and autonomous car industry. All of these science and tech people as voters and tax payers to the limit seem to think that it is just peachy keen. They are not using their highly intelligent students to argue for science as opposed to a fake trend.
Here is a related example. European schools at their worst blow away our best almost always. Don't argue with me; i have spent decades studying the problem. Let's see what came out of a system considered one of the best, Germany. Notice some of their energy escapades as of late? Humm. Or the decisions they have made as to energy reliability. Some of the colder climates, like Norway, embracing electric cars to a high degree. Are they insane?
As a side note, Germany also did a lot of stupid during the COVID-BS crisis. How's that for smart?
What this means is that there is a problem with the educational concept at its core. It creates as appeasement mentality in the students, see Ann Barnhardt for her Alpha/Beta concept which she developed in parallel with my interest in the matter.
Have to tell you that there is little hope outside of a crisis since Americans are on the lowest end academically, essentially a double handicap.
i let a lot go during my education, however a professor of thermodynamics once took it upon himself to reach out to me. He wanted me to come to Germany with him where he would spend sometimes over a year working with colleagues there. Yes, he was so good that the American university actually paid him when he was not there. He told me that in America there is an "A" and an "A", and i was the latter. The system required grading on a curve (excluding perfect and near perfect scorers such as me) and allowed little to differentiate those who really knew the material as opposed to those who could pass the tests with high grades. He felt that the system catered to these since the post war generation first went to college. Prior to that a college or university education was a rare thing which was proper. He said that we mass marketed the trapping to the new rich of America.
This professor told me not to worry as Europe would find itself in the same position as people never question policy when the socialist government gives them something. He said Americas do not know better, current (at the time of our discussion) Europeans look the other way, and next generation Europeans will live in a delusion having known nothing else but policy. He closed with that the manipulators depend upon Europeans being deluded by their socialism and Americans being deceived by their naivete and out right stupidity.
Funny how a hard science guy groked more about human psychology and social science than anyone else whom i ever met.
It's that simple. Tell me fellow parents. When your children graduate from great schools of any kind, why are they not fellow ticker heads?
Don't want to face it; do you? This is the problem that leads to problems such as Karl describes.
@ Dingleberry Regarding education In 1970 I had to take an entrance exam to get into a Catholic college prep HS in Illinois which was a middle class school (had to dodge the dodgy pedophile brothers though. Kept me nimble)
10 years later they had to institute remedial math and English classes for the incoming freshman as the racial profile of the student class changed. I asked one of my favorite teachers at the reunion WTF was going on? He replied "thats reality and we need to keep the doors open" That was 40 years ago.
I am making the bold assumption that locomotives will still use some form of diesel, as will semi tractor trailers. Farm tractors and combines will continue to use diesel fuel. Assuming that cargo container ships will continue using heavy petroleum distillate fuel, exactly WHAT THE FUCK do the collective "they" intend to do with the rest of the petroleum byproduct, namely GASOLINE? According to most webpages I consulted, a barrel of crude produces roughly 40-45% gasoline, 10% jet A, 25-27% diesel fuel, and the rest is "other stuff", asphalt, barge fuel, LPG, etc.
Are most folks so Goddamn stupid they can't figure this shit out?
Thanks for this writeup. I'll be sharing it around some of my gearhead groups on Facebook later prepared to be fully mocked by those group members who drink the EV koolaid. But hopefully some few will read and be educated.
It's not that I'm anti-electric. My rider mower, string trimmer, leaf blower, pressure washer are all electric. But not because I think I'm being green or saving money (although the pressure washer was cheaper than any gas alternative). For me it's a maintenance and convenience factor. No more gummed up carbs. No having to plan ahead to have fuel on hand.
But what I gain there isn't applicable to how I use my roadgoing vehicles.
Yup. They are. It's also why I'm sticking with my hybrid ICE. They're at least more efficient than straight ICE (that'll help when they tax the crap out the gasoline) and thee WILL be plenty (relatively speaking)
"Tell me fellow parents. When your children graduate from great schools of any kind, why are they not fellow ticker heads?"
My 20-year-old son doesn't read the Ticker (that I know of). But when the COVID BS kicked off in March/April 2020, and he saw all the footage out of Italy, he took it upon himself to translate the Italian CDC website to read what was really going on, and concluded after a couple days that what was being reported in the USA was fear-mongering bunk.
@Thombradley -- yes, funny that you mention it, as i think that @Frat also just became aware of one of its implications. Two great takeaways from that book. One, it has in its appendices one of the best discussions of statistics for the newcomer. Next, it helps people to understand how very different in perspective and ability they are as readers of that book.
It has been my thesis and calling that when the cognitive elite began to sort an error was made in that standards were reduced for other people, mostly by disinterest and also malice, furthering the rift. In other words, the common man lost a lot of his common sense and the wisdom that in itself would benefit certain subsets of the cognitive elite.
@Nadavegan -- the exception proves the rule. In my experience, your situation is quite rare, however a compliment to you for the situation created for your children. My curiosity would be the rest of his classmates.
If you do not see the overall threat, there is a big problem.
Abiotic oil and gas have somehow been lost or ignored.
Look at the Russians with their super deep wells, one at around 50,000 feet. They have struck super deep oil wells at 37,000 in Sakhalin Island with huge production.
Everyone pooh, poohs abiotic oil, but no one ever asks where the carbon to create life ever came from. The amount of oil accessible on earth is enormous and may be almost limitless.
The problem is this: Controlling the price and supply of oil, gas, and energy is the source of control of humans, and the source of wealth.
Why would the rich, not want to control energy availability and cost?
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We are in a bicycle economy. The only way to stay solvent is to keep trading, or tip over.
I support the thorium reactor fuel system Karl lays out. I'm not particularly concerned about carbon emissions for various reasons. But for those who are, I have seen some who are very pro-hydrogen claim that using hydrogen metal hydrides allows for safe storage and use. Can any of the more engineering astute comment on that idea?
@Ingar-@Veeger My head be hurtin' after tryin' to do mafs. But I can vote. Early. And often
Not only dats, but who gonna feed all muh chillen? I doan like dis white man rewl ob duh laws! Needs Wakundah justus! Black Live Matter, ya'll! mafs always be hurtin' muh head to...(sic)
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Time may be a great healer, but it's a lousy beautician.-Dorothy Parker
Boys don't make passes at girls with fat asses.-slightly modified DP
I have seen some who are very pro-hydrogen claim that using hydrogen metal hydrides allows for safe storage and use. Can any of the more engineering astute comment on that idea?
That is a decent way to actually store energy, but as with a battery the issue is "store" there; you're producing nothing. Where's the production come from?
To be fair a LFTR isn't 'free' either, but it DOES exploit E = mc^2 and since "c" is such a HUGE number you get a god-awful amount out of "E" for every bit of "m" you convert. But make no mistake -- there really is mass converted; it is NOT a free lunch.
The problem with hydrides is that they really aren't much better on an energy density basis than a lithium-chemistry battery. Which is dogshit, I remind you, compared with liquid hydrocarbons.
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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Yet another professional management class fuster cluck looming on the horizon, and it is also going to get people dead.
Gov Gruesome E.O. mandates a phase out non-ZEV vehicles by 2035. CA can barely keep the power on, as it is. It also uses a significant amount of energy to move water from where it is, to where it ain't. Start plugging in all those overpriced virtue-signaling-for-stupid, golf carts, without adding RELIABLE capacity, and something is gonna give.
Good thing Governors don't make law. Too bad people still obey. Gruesome will be long gone by the time this turd bears fruit.
While Gruesome may be long gone. What he HAS put into motion will be a whole lot of malinvestment before some successor catches on to the mess and reverses the EO. In other words, the fruit will begin to ripen much sooner than anyone realizes.
@whitehat, The top technical school in our state, which has had an internationally good reputation, has, because of the covid stupidity, started admitting students who need remedial math. They needed bodies enrolled and gave up the idea of excellence. The upperclassmen are outraged.
I agree that you still need a source of energy. I was asking whether it would be a safe way to use hydrogen for vehicles and so act as an alternate to carbon based synfuel in your scenario.
It sounds like it might be safe, but probably a lot more costly given the hydrocarbon efficiency. Appreciate your expertise on this, as with so many other things.
@whitehat - the minute we got a sense for his classmates (and teachers, and system) when he was 6 years old, he never saw a classroom again. His younger sister is 1.5 years into an Associates degree, and to this day has never been in a classroom.
Yes we have used up the cheap and easy to get oil. Look at the production figures for giant oil fields around the world. Ex: Cantarell in Mexico production peak was in 2004 at 2.1 mbpd and now it is producing roughly 159,000 bpd. That is quite the decline. All of the major oil fields are in the same situation. We are currently using 6 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel that is extracted.
Oil as the number one resource for the current industrial civilization that we live in is in terminal decline. All of the EVs, windmills, solar, etc. are derivatives of oil which means they cannot exist without oil. There is no industrial civilization without oil.
Due to terminal depletion this is also reflected in our financial system because there is no more GROWTH possible. Oil is the ability to grow, maintain, and run the system. The same depletion is happening or has already happened in coal.
Why do you think the system is leveraged to the hilt? These idiot economists continue to talk about growth in the economy and how everything is okay and the situation is actually DIRE. THERE IS NO MORE GROWTH THAT IS GOING TO OCCUR.
Everything is downhill from here people.
Oh, lastly do you really believe we went to the moon? I think you might want to revisit that scam that took place. We can't get past the Van Allen belts. Nor, has anyone ever been able to replicate that trip.....NASA has also admitted that they destroyed the evidence. Those moon rocks that NASA gave to the Dutch delegation?....they verified them as "petrified wood". You have been conned.
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