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Or do they half-ass interest rate increases and risk the worst of both worlds: a catastrophic 2022 midterm election, and persistent inflation into the 2024 election?

Machiavelli says it will be the half-ass middle course. He says so in "The Discourses". That's because its laziness and human nature to take the "soft" option. So, that's what will happen.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Its the future and...you're not.