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2021-02-08 07:36 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 4766 references Ignore this thread
Serious (And Ignored) Vaccine Risk*
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Vaccines that mimic infections have proved over time to be one of the medical discoveries that have saved countless lives, second only to perhaps antibiotics and surgical anesthesia.  But antibiotics can and often are misused, and their misuse leads to promotion of "super strains" of bacteria that can be extremely difficult -- and, on current trajectories, it is projected impossible in the future -- to control.

The common -- and safe -- vaccines given to people all work on the same basic principle: You take a virus, either attenuate it by modifying it so it cannot replicate well in a human cell (often by passing it through other animal cells) or kill it outright and then give it to the person or animal to be protected.  The recipient's immune system believes it is being attacked by the original disease and mounts an immune response.

But -- there is no, or only a very weak disease.

What you're left with is the same outcome you'd have from natural infection if you were to survive it in terms of immunity.  The immune "memory", in B and T cells, along with antibodies, looks identical -- or very close to identical -- as if you got the actual disease and suffered through it.

Qualifying these vaccines is primarily a process of making sure that they do not revert to their virulent form in the body, a risk that can happen with an attenuated vaccine product.  These vaccines produce "sterilizing" immunity in the recipient -- that is, you cannot get the infection again as your immune system will interdict the bug before replication can take place to any material degree, and thus if exposed later you will never have a material viral titer.  Without a viral titer you cannot shed anything and thus you also can't give the infection to someone else.

It is this key fact that makes most routine vaccines safe in terms of not potentiating mutations that all viruses undergo.  A vaccinated person who has "sterilizing immunity" cannot become part of a chain of replication for a mutated strain that is more-virulent because they are incapable of transmitting the virus to someone else.  The exception among the common vaccines used today in the US is polio; the injected form does not produce sterilizing immunity and this is only safe to do in the US because polio has not circulated in the US since the late 1970s.  When it was circulating we used a combination of both the shot and the oral attenuated vaccine for this very reason; the oral vaccine occasionally can and does produce polio but it also produces sterilizing immunity.  In parts of the world where polio still circulates the oral form is still used for this exact reason.

Coronaviruses, which infect not just humans but also domesticated and food-source animals, generally cannot be vaccinated against in this fashion; neither can HIV and a few other forms of viruses.  The reasons are different for each family of viruses where it does not work but all boil down to the virus' characteristics and mutation patterns, along with how your B cells respond.  With coronaviruses the problem is that attenuated viral vaccine attempts have repeatedly reverted to the virulent form in the body, usually after a couple of hundred passes through cells on average.  In addition these attempts in animals have repeatedly produced ADE instead of protection; in other words, instead of protecting the recipient they make a future infection worse, usually killing the infected animal (in particular this occurred with a candidate for a vaccine against a coronavirus that primarily infects cats.)

That has led to the various "novel" attempts at vaccines developed this time around for Covid-19.  This is not the first time we've tried this sort of thing, although it is the first time in humans.

Unfortunately the history of vaccines in the animal world with non-sterilizing immunity has taught us lessons that we apparently have set aside in our haste for a Covid-19 answer.  To understand the problem you must understand the natural progression of viruses generally.

It is to the advantage of a virus to spread widely, of course.  It's not that a virus has a mind, but rather that the more-widely it spreads without killing the host the more replicants of it there are.  It therefore "wins" genetically.  A virus that violently attacks a host and disables or kills the host before it is passed to another victim loses; a clearly-diseased human will be shunned by others, and one that is dead cannot interact with anyone else.  Thus by pure mathematics viruses as they mutate tend to favor less-virulent but more easily-transmitted mutations; those are more-successful in getting passed on to others before their more-virulent cousin manages to infect the same person and, as the population gains antibodies so long as the immunity has cross-reaction capacity those particular mutations are the ones most-likely to get passed on and the more-virulent ones are selected against.

A vaccine that mimics natural infection does not tamper with this process because from the virus' point of view a person vaccinated is someone already infected.  There is no difference in regard to how the virus behaves when it encounters someone who was either previously sick or vaccinated with such a formulation.

This is not true for vaccines that do not produce sterilizing immunity or worse, do not mimic natural infections at all.

Specifically it is very possible for such a vaccine to actually make it more-likely that a deadlier form of the virus will survive and in fact thrive!  If the vaccine prevents you from getting seriously ill or dying but not from developing a viral titer and being able to pass the infection to others then it erases the natural disadvantage that mutations making a virus more deadly would otherwise have.

That raises the risk of stopping or even reversing the natural mutation processes by which easily-communicable viruses decrease in their capacity to kill people.

Take SARS.  SARS died out quite quickly because you were not able to effectively transmit it until you were quite ill to the point that anyone who saw you would have good cause to think you were sick and it killed a large percentage of those infected.  Thus it very frequently failed to find a new host; general human revulsion to people who are violently ill, once word got out that "it might be SARS" kept a person afflicted from effectively giving it to others, and as a result the virus killed itself off by failing to propagate in a very short period of time.

Now consider a vaccine that makes SARS a low-level cold nuisance or a "silent" infection but does not produce sterilizing immunity.  A widely-vaccinated population would spread SARS like wildfire through the world and anyone unable to be vaccinated, who had their immunity wear off or who was not vaccinated would get it and DIE.

Such a vaccine would take the few thousand deaths from SARS and turn it into tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of deaths, selecting with vicious efficiency for extermination the elderly who poorly responded to a vaccine or were unable to take it due to serious illness where the vaccine might kill them outright, those with cancer, people with autoimmune diseases who could not be vaccinated, those who couldn't afford vaccination and those who either decided not to take the shot or who's immunity wore off.

Is this a realistic risk from the Covid-19 vaccines?

YES, and if it happens there will be exactly nothing we can do about it.

Remember that the CDC and other "authorities" are telling you point-blank that they do not believe these vaccines produce sterilizing immunity.  That is, you cannot take off your mask, stop distancing and resume your normal life after being vaccinated.  Why not?  There is only one reasonable explanation: They do not believe the vaccines prevent you from being infected and producing a titer of virus sufficient to infect others -- the vaccines only decrease the rate of severe disease and death.

Such "vaccines" must NEVER be given on a widespread basis to the public when a particular virus is circulating in the population as doing so risks a catastrophic mutation cascade that will kill tens or even hundreds of millions of peopleWhile numerically the risk of this occurring is likely quite small the consequence if it does happen is catastrophic and thus that course of action should never be undertaken.  A vaccine that behaves this way is simply never safe in the general population; the only rational use is in very high-risk individuals who make up a too-small and non-concentrated portion of the population to form a disease chain vector for a more-virulent mutation.

Today Covid-19 is not a very virulent virus, despite all the screaming Karens.  If infects easily but only kills, statistically, those who are seriously morbid in the first place.  The primary factor is not age contrary to people's assertions -- the NYC Coroner data makes this crystal clear but the media and our so-called "experts" are knowingly lying even with nearly a year's worth of said data now under our belts.  Simply put if you are not severely-morbid the odds of Covid-19 killing you are about 3/100,000 irrespective of age if you get infected -- that is, 0.003%.  Or, if you prefer, 99.997% of the time you will survive.

The risk is not age-specific; you can literally count on your fingers the number of people over 75 who do not have one of the listed conditions that Covid-19 has killed in NYC.

This is a very mild disease in those who are not morbid -- in fact it is materially less dangerous than the flu which more-frequently kills young people with no particular morbidity.  That doesn't mean it can't kill someone without one or more known risk factors -- it most-certainly can and occasionally does, just as Chicken Pox did occasionally kill a child who got it.  But unless you have one of a particular list of morbid conditions you accept far more risk of death by using a passenger car, either as a driver or passenger, over a period of about six months.

Now if you do have one or more of those conditions you're at materially higher risk.

But even so -- perspective is important.  We have learned how to treat this disease and in many cases how to prevent it from transmitting from one person to another using prophylaxis, not vaccines.  If you are one of the people who is not going to get seriously hurt or killed from a public health perspective your infection is beneficial to the community as a whole.

The question of whether your vaccination is likewise beneficial is not known.  We cannot say that it is identically beneficial as an infection because these vaccines are not mimicking natural infections; they intentionally target only part of the viral structure because attenuated vaccines are known to be unsafe with coronaviruses in that they revert and wind up causing disease -- so to avoid that they intentionally didn't use the entire virus.  Instead they "engineered" an injection that causes your body to produce the spike (and only the spike) and then your immune system produces antibodies to that.

But -- this means we do not know if you can get infected and emit the virus toward others after being vaccinated.  We did not study it in the lab because challenge studies are generally not ethically permissible in humans, we did not do the animal trials and there has been insufficient data from infections and monitoring the population yet here we are jabbing people willy-nilly without knowing this critical fact.

These vaccines should have never been put into widespread use until and unless we knew if they produced sterilizing immunity as that should always be a gating requirement for widespread use of any vaccine.  By using them widely, if they do not produce sterilizing immunity, we take the very real risk of promulgating a much more-lethal strain of Covid-19 that would otherwise fail to find traction statistically and thus harm very few before it is outcompeted instead spreading it worldwide, and for those who have had their immunity wane, who cannot be vaccinated due to immune or medical compromise (e.g. anyone undergoing cancer treatment which damages the immune system) or otherwise that strain will result in a massive amount of mortality.

This is not conjecture folks -- it has happened in animal husbandry and has resulted in avian flu potentiation wildly beyond what used to be the case.  Avian flu strains used to kill a fair number of birds who contracted it but now, as a result of vaccines that do not present sterilizing immunity it is now nearly universally fatal among poultry.  If such is detected in a flock today the usual response is immediate culling of the entire population at that location because it is nearly-certain to be fatal to the infected birds anyway and if it gets out of that facility and into another one it will kill all the birds there too.

The nightmare scenario is one in which the virus mutates in this fashion and in the process evades the vaccines as well in which case you now have not a 3/100,000 risk of dying but a 1/100 or even 10/100 risk with no effective means to stop it at all.

The odds are relatively low that this will occur will but the path for it to happen has been deliberately opened up by distributing vaccines on a widespread basis, not just to those at the highest risk (e.g. nursing home patients) without first proving up that they do produce sterilizing immunity and refusing to approve those that do not.

This was and is stupid and if we lose the bet there will be literally nothing we can do about it other than suck it up and watch the worldwide population get nailed to whatever degree occurs.

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Scottj175
Posts: 305
Incept: 2010-09-06

Vandiver, AL
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The hubris of the so-called experts pushing all this is "well, we'll just vaccinate everyone". I've not seen it not recommended for anyone. I've seen chemo patients on social media proudly waving their vaccine cards. Ditto pregnant women (and have heard of some horrible results there).

Thing is we won't know for at least two years minimum will we if this warp speed nonsense has produced a disaster will we?

I think I need to watch "I Am Legend" again. But it's likely to keep me up at night this time.
Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Scottj175 - IF it produces a disaster it will likely be a year or two down the road, and the problem is that there's no way to know which way it may go and thus whether you want to be vaccinated to try to evade the disaster or whether you'll get nailed by it if you are and evade it if you're not.

It's also possible it won't matter, which of course would be the worst of all possibilities.

The odds of the article's outcome occurring are not particularly high, but the outcome if it does will be unbelievably destructive. The worst part of it, if it happens, will be the near-certain destruction of governments and civil order since it will be impossible to hide how it happened and while this bug has engendered plenty of fear a mutation that produces a 10% CFR will almost-certainly lead to collapse of critical supply chains and infrastructure on a national basis along with a literal "shoot anyone that gets within 20' of you" mentality among a decent part of the population.

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Scottj175
Posts: 305
Incept: 2010-09-06

Vandiver, AL
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@Tickerguy and I suppose the effectiveness of Ivermectin and HCQ against any possibly worse strain is also completely unknown?

Engineertype
Posts: 40
Incept: 2020-03-20

Granville NY
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There are a lot of really smart people who have worked on the vaccines and are promoting them. I wonder if population reduction IS the goal or at least part of the goal? Or are humans really THAT stupid?
Tickerguy
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@Scottj175 - I would expect them to continue to work in terms of the same sort of baseline response. The problem of course is that a 75% reduction in fatality rate off a blended CFR of 1% leaves you many fewer bodies than a 75% reduction off a blended 10% or 30% CFR.

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Mjc1960
Posts: 174
Incept: 2015-02-28

chicago, il
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Several recent articles by this author, taken together outline what you fear.

https://www.unz.com/author/gilad-atzmon/

The British and South African variants come from countries with early adoption of the Pfizer vaccine. It is not the main point of these articles, but it's in there.

It does however state that overall COVID infections have appeared to go up after the vaccinating began.

Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
Incept: 2007-06-26
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@Engineertype - Arrogance is nothing new. There were plenty of smart people who disregarded ADE risk in the Philippines Dengue Fever vaccine production too, and it was only after a bunch of kids were killed that they shut it down.

The kids who got the shots prior to that are stuck with the enhanced risk for life.

But this is a whole different thing in that it's not vaccine-specific -- it is a risk with ANY vaccine that does not produce sterilizing immunity. Numerically it is not an odds-on sort of thing BUT if it happens the outcome is catastrophic. In the animal (food production) world we just kill all the affected and potentially-affected animals when it happens. Good luck with that in the human population.

If you've ever worked around industrial-scale high-density food production you're well-aware of the EXTREME precautions they take against the possibility of you taking a bug that is in a chicken house, for example, and introducing it into another one -- even though no birds APPEAR to be ill. With animal husbandry the scope and scale of the risk is limited to the lifetime of the animal in question, of course -- which is a hell of a lot shorter than the lifetime of a human!

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Wifi
Posts: 7114
Incept: 2013-02-13

The Land That Was
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Seems to me there is a reason, the government wants, soon to come, demands, the vaccine be taken, it's not because they care about you.

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"Freedom cannot end where fear begins."
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Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
Incept: 2007-06-26
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@Mjc1960 - The same sort of pattern, particularly related to death rates, has shown up here. That has occurred too quickly both here and in Israel however to be related to adverse selection when it comes to mutating strains.

If I had to hazard a guess it's being caused by latent infections not tested for before people get jabbed, and the stab winds up creating an ADE response. There was no testing done to see if it is safe to give said injection to someone who has a positive PCR test with a high Ct threshold but is not clinically ill so we have NO IDEA if such potentiation occurs or not.

Again you cannot presume that which you did not test for is safe but in that case the risk is personal rather than public-health related. The two are not the same thing; public health is about statistical outcomes across the entire population while PERSONAL risk is of course about YOUR outcome.

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Mjc1960
Posts: 174
Incept: 2015-02-28

chicago, il
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I didn't mean to imply that the apparent increased infection rate is caused by the new variants. That may be another mechanism or just coincidence at this point.

It is interesting that the new variants come from countries that are early adopters of the vaccine. Selection pressure?

Your are just as likely to roll snake eyes on your first roll of the dice as any.
Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
Incept: 2007-06-26
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That's true @Mjc1960, and may well be the case, but do remember that natural selection favors the more-easily-transmissible strain under normal circumstances. If they are no more virulent (and thus far it appears they are not) then that would be adverse selection related.

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Nemowillobserve
Posts: 73
Incept: 2020-05-17

Middle Earth
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@TG said (would be impossible to hide how it happened)
Considering what we have seen lately, I have to respectfully disagree. A smart fellow once said that the media manufacturers consent. In todays world they manufacture reality.
Step55
Posts: 148
Incept: 2009-02-27

Connecticut - Massachusetts
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I've seen, over time, how herbicide resistant weeds explode in population. These are all in species where most replication takes a full year.

Time and rate of mutant viral cells must be logarithmic values above those of plants. Odds facing humans with compromised immune systems are poor.
Handyone55
Posts: 311
Incept: 2010-07-06

Ceciltucky, Maryland
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I suffer from a poor memory. Since this scamdemic began, I had the nagging feeling that I read something about a pandemic and ulterior motives many years ago. I finally remembered it. In 1998, Tom Clancy published a work of fiction entitled " Rainbow Six " In the book, radical enviros were going to release a bioweapon to cause mass death and panic. The vaccine they planned to offer was simply a time delay version of the same bioweapon. They planned to give the useless eaters a killing injection and the real, working vaccine to carefully selected elites.

I wonder if Jeff Beezlebub or Polio Gates have finally decided to take their " rightful " place as the true owners of this planet?
Tdurden
Posts: 1159
Incept: 2015-01-29

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Quote:
Arrogance is nothing new.

Sadly, neither is stupidity and a complete and total refusal to learn from the past. Even after getting hit in the head with a solid clue-by-four. It was "only" 21 yeas ago this month that the Nasdaq doubled within a 12 month period, right before the Dot-Com crash, like it just did over the past 12 months. Everyone was getting rich like the TeeVee commercials for Ameritrade and SureTrade were saying. Swap those out with Robinhood and Coinbase and sprinkle it with modern plague and, well, hope you all have lots of popcorn. And MRE's.

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"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Babylon 5
Scottj175
Posts: 305
Incept: 2010-09-06

Vandiver, AL
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Vaccination is full steam ahead here in Birmingham. My preferred local news station (which sadly has drifted leftward since Raycom sold out to Gray Media) has been doing live hits from this site all morning.

https://www.wbrc.com/2021/02/03/hoover-m....

Gianmarko
Posts: 202
Incept: 2013-03-11

Bern, Switzerland
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the amount of BS surrouding the whole vaccine business has only been growing since day 1.
for me the fact that pfizer and the likes had truckloads of doses ready to ship the very day approval was granted was enough to demonstrate that the whole C19 thing has been a giant scam from people who care only about lining their pockets at everybody else expenses.

at this stage i really dont care. people will get what they deserve. i know i and my family are part of a small group of people who will come out of all this stronger and wealthier and im not talking about money.

i have a large stock of beer and popcorn. and an ever larger stock of i-told-you-so to distribute.

i consider myself lucky to have people like KD around and being able to listen to them.
Quik49
Posts: 11556
Incept: 2007-12-11

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On Ivermectin and Merck...

https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-conte....

Still going through this thread but wanted to share this.

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Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Merck and the rest of the pharma industry should be nuked from orbit.

They used to provide an EXTREMELY useful part of the medical world.

Now they're all *****s who make more money the higher the stack of dead bodies.

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Zek157
Posts: 40
Incept: 2009-03-05

Virginia
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Places like Afghanistan still have active polio and we send kids over there with shots only. I had to take another shot myself when deployed to Kabul a few years ago despite having oral polio vaccine when I was a kid.

The covid vaccines sound like a perfect storm of cluster****. The liars chorus again will be we never could have seen this happen.
Tickerguy
Posts: 177829
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Zek157 - Yeah well for YOU that's fine, but to send people with IPV only into places like Afghanistan is tantamount to killing the local population. It's criminally insane.

They use OPV there for this specific reason despite the risk that it occasionally produces actual polio. Public health is not the same as personal results and often the two are at odds, although not always. What is ALWAYS true however is that you're flat-out crazy to ignore the public health implications when it comes to sterile immunity as the results can be catastrophic.

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Quik49
Posts: 11556
Incept: 2007-12-11

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Yes KD....agreed...nuke em

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Kokobeware
Posts: 190
Incept: 2010-05-04

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While the masses (aka sheep) might fall "hook line and sinker" for the MSM blitzkrieg and, while this can be incredibly frustrating, ... KD, this blog, has been life-saving. I mean that seriously. I have shared MANY of your COVID posts with others and I know those posts (treatment protocols) have saved lives.

At the end of the day, well, at least to me, that in and of itself is what really matters. You can't do anything about the scoffers or the "Pharisees"; however, you have enhanced (and saved) the lives of those who were actually willing to listen.

God bless you. THANKS!
Aztrader
Posts: 8688
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Watching PFE stock drop every day should worry anyone who took their vaccine....
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