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2020-04-27 10:01 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 866 references Ignore this thread
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For those with 30-second attention spans:

  • Diamond Princess proved that the claim, which continues to be made today, that (1) this virus is extremely deadly and (2) there is zero cross or innate immunity were both false.  It is not possible for a very transmissible respiratory virus to infect one person in a quarantined cabin of two people, while the other does not get sick at all unless either (1) the second person is already immune or (2) the second person gets it but has no symptoms at all and recovers before being tested, and thus tests negative.  I remind you that this was proved, conclusively, before the end of February.

  • Kirkland proved that (1) the virus is extremely virulent and deadly among nursing home populations, killing double-dgiit percentages of the people in said places, (2) that flu season mitigations were ineffective in preventing the spread, as it was already flu season and (3) it was likely spread through fecal/oral and by the workers in the facilities -- that is, health care workers are a primary vector.  Yet to this day we have not locked in nursing homes nor done anything about that vector as people in said places count nearly half of all deaths and continue to be a primary source of both cases and deaths.  I remind you this was proved, conclusively, by the first week of March and thus all nursing home fatalities from Covid-19 since that time are in fact negligent homicides for which governors and the owners of same should be held personally liable both civilly and criminally.

  • Seroconversion testing has now proved my hypothesis that the first two points meant that (1) we could not actually stop transmission with "mitigations" and (2) health "care" was and would remain a primary vector for this disease.

  • Seroconversion testing has also now proved my belief that actual infection rates were much higher than reported (by at least an order of magnitude -- that is, ten times) and, as a result, fatality rates were much lower by an equal amount.  This meant that this respiratory virus was both very different than influenza but a lot like a cold virus.  In other words, flu has basically a zero silent infection rate; if you get it, you get sick.  Colds, on the other hand (some of which are caused by coronaviruses) frequently produce silent or near-silent infections where at worst you sneeze a couple of times.

  • The data from everywhere serologic surveys have been done proves conclusively that "lockdowns" and other forms of forced mitigation, along with "contact tracing", are a waste of time and in fact indirectly harm or even kill people.  The enormous number of "silent" (asymptomatic) infections, with all evidence being they account for at least ten times and perhaps as many as 85 or more times those who are tested, makes this clear.  If you are tested, positive, yet gave the virus to ten people and only one of them ever becomes symptomatic trying to chase down all the "positives" is now not only futile it's criminally insane because you want those asymptomatic infections to occur -- they directly help society rather than harm it by directly suppressing future transmission of the virus.

  • The data out of Wuhan showed that vents were a complete waste of time and any "mitigation" intended to blunt impact on hospital utilization so as to make vents available would actually do nothing at best, and kill at worst.  We now know this to be true in the United States.  This in turn means that mitigations intended to "flatten the curve" to preserve hospital space are stupid and ineffective since driving people into hospitals and encouraging invasive procedures does not save lives -- it actually takes lives.  Adding financial incentive to that (which our government has done) is manslaughter on a gross scale and in addition we have now spent money building devices that don't work, adding intentional financial fraud by our President to the mix.  We are now in the realm where people should get the guillotine for their conduct in that regard as manslaughter for money is commonly called contract killing.  Killing for naked political purposes is a crime against humanity.

  • The data now proves that the only rational way to deal with covid patients who need health care is a sanitarium model.  The goal must be early intervention with drug therapies (proved or not) because vents don't work.  Simply put you must isolate/quarantine (whether in said sanitarium, locked-in facility or someone's home where nobody can leave or enter other than a seropositive individual who cannot transmit the infection) for those who are actually infected.  Keeping the virus out of ordinary hospitals so Joe with his heart attack does not get the virus in the hospital and die due to his already-weakened state is essential -- and yet nobody has done one thing about that.

  • Since a huge percentage of those infected are not harmed at all or only have minimal symptoms you want to encourage that event since it is the only means to build immunity in the population.  Any other action is criminal negligent homicide as such "mitigations" are in fact a direct cause of those at high risk becoming infected and dying.  When you cannot prevent the spread of a respiratory virus, and that is the case here as is now proved by the data, then those actions that prolong the window of harm for those at high risk are not "mitigations" -- they are crimes.

And to top it all off we have nearly zero state or local politicians, say much less a President, who is willing to stand up and speak to any of these facts.  Yet they are now all facts -- not suppositions, beliefs or even just a hypothesis supported by the data.

They are facts.

They all started as a hypothesis with decent evidence but over time they've graduated to irrefutable facts backed by actual data on the ground.

What remains a hypothesis, but is also likely to be proved up, is that there will never be a vaccine and immunity wanes over time, as both are also characteristics of coronaviruses in general, which means this will come back in the fall, it will be with us on a permanent basis, the "mitigations" not only can't work they can't be reapplied forever and there will never be a successful vaccine either.

This means "suck it up and deal with it" is all we have left -- and that the sanitarium model is the only sane public health measure that can have an actual positive impact.

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