Powell's Legacy: Collapse, Civil War And Death
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Display list of topics
Sarah's Resources You Should See
Sarah's Blog Buy Sarah's Pictures
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2019-06-12 09:45 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve , 210 references Ignore this thread
Powell's Legacy: Collapse, Civil War And Death
[Comments enabled]

Right along with him on the pedestal will be Donald J. Trump who has repeatedly "urged" The Fed to further pump asset bubbles and insane "monetary policy" that has not and cannot work.

The claim is that there has been "no -- or very little -- inflation."  That's only true if you exclude everything that has ramped in price, such as health insurance, car insurance, car prices, various assets and more.

But if you accept that "there has been no inflation" then the Fed policy has been an abject failure since it was supposed to produce inflation.

Never mind the complete lie that The Fed "leads" the market where it wants to go.  It does no such thing.  In virtually every case the Fed Funds rate follows the 3-month Treasury Bill rate.  You can verify this for yourself by going to Fred and graphing it yourself; in virtually all cases the bond market moves first and The Fed follows.

 

So yes, right now the 3 Month Bill is saying the Fed has to cut.  The market is forcing The Fed to do so.  Not Trump.

The Fed is not "leading" the market or "setting" rates; it is following what the market has already done.  The data says that in fact The Fed is powerless to "set rates" in that if it could then it could drag the market around by the nose and yet it has NEVER done so.

What The Fed can do is "extraordinary things", and it further can project abilities it does not have, thereby leading people to do things they would not otherwise do.  The correct word for that is lying.

The cause of our imbalances in the nation is not with The Fed; it lies with Congress that spends in deficit.  This is monetary inflation, directly and immediately, and is responsible for all of the issues with political and monetary imbalances.  It is why we have had trillions of "buybacks" with borrowed money at real negative interest rates.  It is why health care costs go up double-digits and so does health insurance.  It is why a car costs $35,000 instead of $18,000.  It is why houses are both expensive and scarce.  It is why entrepreneurship is dying -- you and I cannot borrow at negative interest rates (we have personal guarantees backed by assets demanded of us) but large businesses can and do and as a result they can and do bury anyone who tries to produce a "better" anything that they're interested in.

It is why firms like Google, Twitter and Facebook can play their censorship games; you can't access below-zero real rates to build a competing service while they can and do and thus step on you without having to actually risk any of their own money or pay a real positive rate of interest to "borrow" whatever resource they desire.

That, along with rank corruption, is why Amazon didn't pay sales taxes despite having distribution centers all over the nation for nearly a decade, folded in every case when threatened with a lawsuit or indictment and didn't fight a single one of those battles, yet never paid a penny in back taxes, penalties or interest.  This conferred a roughly 6% margin advantage to them -- utterly insurmountable to any competitor.  If you tried any of that you'd be indicted in an afternoon and chains would be on your business' front door the next morning.  Literally hundreds of thousands of smaller firms and millions of employees have lost everything as a result of these scams.

It is why your wages in real terms have gone down over the last 20 years.  It is why, when all is said and done, 99.9% of the American population gets financially gang-raped every single year.

And yet that same 99.9% of America sits on its ass and listens to the braying of so-called "experts" who blatantly lie even though the facts as to what comes first and what follows next are incontrovertible and visible to anyone who cares to look while exactly nobody challenges them and, given that said nonsense is responsible for impoverishing and even killing huge numbers of people you have to wonder why there is not a gallows on every damned street corner including every corner in Silicon Valley and dozens more aren't being erected right now on the National Mall.

The sad part of it is that the strategy these people are employing will fail because mathematically it must, and when it does the lack of diligence and demand from Americans that this crap stop and those who have run it be deposed is going to be directly responsible for millions of deaths -- right here in the United States.  Our nation will fiscally fail and collapse, the clock is ticking and there is not much time left.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 



 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Powell's Legacy: Collapse, Civil War And Death in forum [Market-Ticker]
Aztrader
Posts: 8339
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The feds constant jawboning and comments about cuts has exploded the markets making it a major case for obvious manipulation. Everyone looks the other way because they want the markets to rise and don't care for what reason. It's like dealing drugs so you can have a nice house and car and ignore the end results of the people you hurt.
Powell and the fed are nothing but crack dealers for the rich and the only ones that get hooked are the lower classes after the fact by buying into the ponzi at the top.
Add in the cost of inflation and that is where the real damage comes in. Most of the nation are in the "boiling frog" stage and now with the media simply hiding the truth about inflation even though we are all paying for it every day. Now we have the big tech companies literally removing anyone that displays an opinion that they disagree with. Every day we hear the BS that there is no inflation when in fact it's fairly substantial.
When we saw car prices go up, did they ever go back down? I know in my business the simple cost of shipping has exploded in the past four years and won't go down simply because it's now built into their model.
What they ignore about inflation is just because it didn't go up every quarter, doesn't mean that it just disappeared. Everyone has to pay it, yet their wages aren't going up meaning the inflation is destroying their buying power per Karl's comments. Businesses profit margins are diving like crazy making inflation to us even worse.
None of this is baked into their inflation equations making their numbers a complete fraud.
Captainkidd
Posts: 1378
Incept: 2010-05-25

Houston, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I work in the manufacturing sector, and have for the last 30 years. I know the wages in manufacturing have not gone up enough to even come close to countering the rise in the cost of living.
But, of course, the inflation numbers don't include the little incidental things that people use their discretionary income for.....
Why, food, housing, electricity, water, gasoline, you know..... The discretionary purchases.

----------
A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Jcneall
Posts: 17
Incept: 2010-07-23

Houston
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'd be curious to know what your plan is when this goes down. I'm assuming you would consider your liquid assets at great risk. Are you buying metals and planning to leave the country? Are you relying on your investments to ensure you are not among the millions that will die? You've posted lots of snippets about investment and our economic situation but I don't think I recall a post from you discussing how you are planning to protect yourself. If we assume the American people aren't going to do something about this, what do you think we should be planning to do?
Tickerguy
Posts: 157528
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Jcneall -- Stop it before it happens.

Which the people won't do.

Everyone wants a personal way to not have to take risk, not have to act, but be "safe." Such does not exist. Therefore either decide to act and take such risk to stop this **** and yes, that means doing whatever becomes necessary, or accept that whatever run you've had up until this point it's all you deserve.

Remember that in the 1920s there were people who saw the obvious coming -- which it did, starting in 1929. They piled into gold thinking they could personally avoid the wreck instead of rising up and stopping the bull**** by whatever means were necessary. They were dead ****ing wrong; FDR made gold ownership illegal and until the 1970s IT REMAINED IMPOSSIBLE TO CONVERT AND SPEND IT. If you went that route you got ****ED as nearly NOBODY who had any material amount of wealth accumulated in 1930 and tried that lived long enough to be able to SPEND it. If you think the same **** won't happen THIS time you're wrong; it will be done differently because it always is, BUT IT WILL HAPPEN.

Your ONLY option that has a decent shot at success IS TO STOP THE CRAP BEFORE IT BLOWS UP no matter what you have to do, as a body politic, to put a stop to it.

The people of this nation, to the 99.999%, simply do not deserve a representative republic. When faced with the obvious mathematical facts on what is to come instead of demanding that the crap stop and backing that up with whatever you need to, along with convincing others to do likewise the people of this nation and those selling "answers" alike both look for ways to **** EVERYONE ELSE while "protecting themselves ALONE".

America as a nation and a people deserve to burn to the ground; our narcissism, as a body politic, makes this crystal clear and this exact sort of question is WHY whenever I've been asked something like that while speaking in public I've said the same thing: Everyone who takes such a position is condemning their families, children AND THEMSELVES to riding the train off the track and into the gorge -- and every such person DESERVES IT.

----------
Winding it down.

Ocdawg
Posts: 7
Incept: 2019-03-14

WI- Home of undoing good....
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
When I saw this pic this morning, I decided it's time to add more ammo, water, and long-stock food to "supplies"... that's my plan, cuz it's coming soon!!

Today it dawned on me it is really possible now Trump will be the last President of the United States... shocked I'm even typing this...
Inline

----------
Living just north of where gun control works... BAWHAHAHAHA
Tickerguy
Posts: 157528
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Pro tip: If you're going to **** like this put your pants around your KNEES, both from the top AND bottom. It prevents you from ****ting INTO YOUR PANTS, which is otherwise EXTREMELY likely.

----------
Winding it down.

Jduwaldt
Posts: 711
Incept: 2010-06-10

Orange County, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
On a lighter side, I don't remember his name (John Hussman?), but there was one economist who used to say there was no inflation for "fasting pedestrians" as a joke to point out how the Fed would publish numbers deliberately excluding fuel and food costs. And state so in the title of the reports.

----------
Gun Control: because what's the point of being in the Majority if you can't use it against the Minority?
Wifi
Posts: 1388
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Pro tip: If you're going to **** like this put your pants around your KNEES, both from the top AND bottom. It prevents you from ****ting INTO YOUR PANTS, which is otherwise EXTREMELY likely.


Add to that, you don't want to be down wind either, while eating. Those folks in the background may as well be eating inside of a portapotty.

----------
Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Wa9jml
Posts: 401
Incept: 2017-04-29

DeKalb, Illinois
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
And inflation statistics never cover taxes, but try not paying those! As soon as some items start going up in price, immediately, hedonic adjustments come to the rescue.

This whole scam is based on fraud.
Xorbe
Posts: 195
Incept: 2009-06-23

Bay Area, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Was in SF last week, can confirm, poop on sidewalks everywhere. I walked from Van Ness to the pier and back via different routes.

Went and got a family size Papa Murphy's for a family event last weekend. The price went up from $16 to $19 apparently at some point.
Keenan
Posts: 322
Incept: 2013-01-11

Western PA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
And here is just one example of exactly why we, the people, in large numbers need to get really loud in demanding scalps:

The CFTCs fruitless 5-year investigation is all the more embarrassing because Edmonds was not some lone, rogue trader inside an otherwise pristine Wall Street bank. JP Morgans reputation is so soiled for rigging everything from electric markets to foreign exchange to wearing a self-imposed blindfold while Bernie Madoff carried out his decades-long Ponzi scheme that two trail attorneys have written a book comparing the bank to the Gambino crime family.....

...It is also relevant that the same Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been allowed by the Board of Directors to remain at the helm of the bank through two probation periods, two deferred prosecution agreements, three criminal felony counts and $36 billion in fines. And, by the way, those three criminal felony counts that occurred under Dimon are three more than the bank received during its prior 100 years of existence.


http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/06/co....
Lenguado
Posts: 2697
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Went and got a family size Papa Murphy's for a family event last weekend. The price went up from $16 to $19 apparently at some point.

Have you checked out the volume of bottled beer lately? Most are now 11 oz - or 11.2 oz, or some such.

Purchased a 2 x 10 x 16' treated board to replace a rotted board on my 16' flatbed trailer a couple weeks ago. When did a 2 x 10 go from a 1 3/4 x 9 1/2 to 1 1/2 x 9???? Seriously. Just call it a damned 1 1/2 x 9 now.

You can't buy an actual 2 x 10 anymore apparently - which is what was on the trailer before the first time I replaced the boards.

No "official" inflation in prices - though the sizes of everything is getting smaller and smaller. At some point, a "Large" pizza will be the size of a bagel bite . . . . .

----------
"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Bodhi
Posts: 1129
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Lenguado wrote..
Have you checked out the volume of bottled beer lately? Most are now 11 oz - or 11.2 oz, or some such.


I stopped drinking beer a few months ago. I'll check bottle sizes at Wal-Mart when I grocery shop this Saturday. I do know that a 12-pack of Sweetwater IPA is now over $18 after you add in sales tax.
Tinman
Posts: 435
Incept: 2008-02-16

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"11 oz - or 11.2 oz, or some such"

Are you sure you are not looking at an import (specifically Caribbean). They bottle at 330ml. 12 oz. is 355ml.
Marc2mrkt
Posts: 667
Incept: 2008-04-12

Taipei
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List


I hope it doesn't end like this. The scariest thought is if the USA gets sucked into the debt blackhole, all other countries will suffer a worse fate. From my POV, I see the Chicoms blowing apart before the US. The consequences of this may extend the life of the US. Another thought, what if the EU banks blow up in the next few months? Since eurodollars are what banks use to lend to each other, won't they need more $US to dig out of their hole?
Asimov
Posts: 111324
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
You can't buy an actual 2 x 10 anymore apparently


Find a local sawmill. That's the only place you'll get an ACTUAL 2"x10" board.

A 2x10x16' should have been 1.5x9.5x16'

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Mangymutt
Posts: 1014
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl's 12:25 and so many others who post their views is why I love visiting Market-Ticker.

If you decide to go camping you can prepare for the known unexpected situations. If you go sailing across the ocean, you can take necessary steps to protect yourself. If you live in tornado alley, you build a storm shelter, live by the coast tsunamis. Heck even just driving through town you can prepare for mishaps.

In fiveish years things will spin out of control in ways that will offer us no game plan we can prepare for.

Millions of older people are banking on SS, or pensions. Millions of people are dependent on their medical industry, teaching or other government subsidized jobs. Millions of younger (And quite a few older) folks have sold their future for the promise of a worthless piece of diploma. What happens to all these people in five years?

That college debt is non-discharable. Until it is paid in full it is a liability to Timmy and Sally, but an asset to some banker. If you think they ****ed people in the 1930's there is a good chance people will be wishing gold was all they lost.

Grandma and grandpa will be struggling just to buy a bag of Kibbles & Bits. They wont being giving a healthy rat's ass what happens to the grand kids, let alone their neighbors. The grand kids will become be able to "pay off" their loans if they just do what the government tells them.

The amount of people who do not wish to assimilate into a coherent culture who are being allowed to illegally come into our country, receive welfare benefits, send money out of country, gain skills by stealing jobs from American, and commit heinous crimes against Americans, crime that go unpunished is staggering.

Too many American's worry about their phone dying and not being able to see what some complete stranger they have never met is doing on FB, than even trying to consider what will happen when there is no power to even charge their stupid phone.

You got money it the bank - Good luck getting any of it out.

You owe debt - Good luck on anybody giving a **** (Unless of course you are in SF then you can get all the ****s you want)

Your kid owes for a worthless degree - Hello Army and good bye selfish cat food eating grandma & grandpa.

You want to find like minded people - Learn Spanish or Arabic.

It doesn't take too much looking to see all the signs are point to we have already begone the collapse, maybe things speed up and we hit the wall in two years, maybe some extraordinary measure kicks in and we squeak by for another 20 years. Even though the math lines up very nicely for the 2024 time frame, the truth is nobody knows for sure when it will happen. All we know is it will.

There is no way to prepare for the cluster **** inside the **** storm that is heading our way, the best one could hope for it to keep your wits and have a fluid mindset. And sadly the masses are too damn dumbed down to realize NOW is our last best hope to fight to keep our perception of reality in place.

Good Luck.
Mangymutt
Posts: 1014
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Lenguado
Quote:
When did a 2 x 10 go from a 1 3/4 x 9 1/2 to 1 1/2 x 9???? Seriously. Just call it a damned 1 1/2 x 9 now.


Unless I am somehow mis-understanding your statement. It has always been that way.

When a pine, spruce, oak...whatever is harvested and shipped to the saw mill they immediately process it. At which time they cut it to whatever specifications they are looking for - In your case they cut it to the actual 2" by 10" dimension. They then send it off to a kiln.

Each type of tree is milled "green" meaning it has a lot of moisture in it, sending it to the kiln makes sure the newly cut boards dry more evenly. Once they are all the way dried they planned to a specific tolerance, which of course is less than the original 2 x 10 they were cut.

Guarantee you that if you poke a hole in a 1960's (standard construction)home and measured a board of the same dimension they would be within mm of they one you are holding.
Quik49
Posts: 5812
Incept: 2007-12-11

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
2x10 is 1.5 x 9.25.

Kinda like fed math

----------
Long Vaseline....

Truthseeker
Posts: 8970
Incept: 2007-10-07
A True American Patriot!
Southern Oregon
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
North American Standard 2-by Lumber
Nominal Size (inches) Actual Size (inches) Actual Size (mm)
2 x 2 1 1/2 x 1 1/2 38 x 38
2 x 3 1 1/2 x 2 1/2 38 x 64
2 x 4 1 1/2 x 3 1/2 38 x 89
2 x 6 1 1/2 x 5 1/2 38 x 140
2 x 8 1 1/2 x 7 1/4 38 x 184
2 x 10 1 1/2 x 9 1/4 38 x 235
2 x 12 1 1/2 x 11 1/4 38 x 286

It's been that way since 1961. That was when the Committee on Grade Simplification and Standardization agreed to what is now the current U.S. standard at a meeting in Scottsdale, AZ.

----------
"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Asimov
Posts: 111324
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oh, that's right. 2x8 and up it's 3/4" removed instead of 1/2". Thanks quik. [Edit: and Truth.]

It's like in the grocery store where a one pound sized container only holds 14oz, but with dead tree carcasses.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.

Lenguado
Posts: 2697
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Tinman
Quote:
Are you sure you are not looking at an import

Yep. Have seen it on Bud and Miller bottles recently. (Not purchased, just observed.)

@Asimov
Quote:
A 2x10x16' should have been 1.5x9.5x16'

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda . . . . At our local Home Despot, the boards labeled 2x10x16' were actually 1.5" x 9" x 16'. Since I'm not a Millennial - I do know how to use the numerous tape measures we have around the house. (And yes, I know you weren't implying that I didn't.)

----------
"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ