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2018-12-07 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 186 references Ignore this thread
Screameth The Job Crooner
[Comments enabled]

Hmmm....

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

Well..... how are the internals of the household survey?

 

Ordinary, to be blunt.  The household survey says we added 63,000 jobs, not 155,000.  So much for "seasonal adjustment."

However, this isn't especially bad; November is usually a somewhat weak month.  So to get a mid double-digit number is ordinary and expected.

More interesting is that you had over 300,000 people leave the labor force this last month and annualized it's better than a half-million on a 12-month (y/o/y) basis.

 

Additionally jobs were flat across educational achievement, with no category putting up more than one tick in either direction.  One month does not make a trend but two is a warning and three is a problem.

Something else to consider - transportation employment, ex warehousing, was flat-to-down across the board.  That's an interesting anecdote that doesn't yet turn into an economic marker, but like the educational achievement change it bears watching in coming months.

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but it was a great report on slowing down the rate increases....oh wait....

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Long Vaseline....

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