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2021-09-20 14:41 by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings , 539 references
[Comments enabled]  

You have to chuckle at this.

Evergrande, an alleged "investment vehicle" in China, appears to be detonating.

A primer: If it's financial and in China, it's a scam.  If you don't understand how it's a scam and who's going to get scammed, guess who is wearing the hat marked "Sucker"?  Uh huh.

The only difference?  This is a big-un.

The natto was especially bad overseas and it translated right over here, good for a nice big fat vomit on US markets.

Or was it?

Well, in point terms it was.  But in terms of real violence?  Not really.  Not yet anyway.

I do remind it's September.  Which has a history of being, well, sort of nasty when it comes to markets.  And October too.  In fact those are the two most-notorious months for market crashes -- but hardly the only ones.

This is rather.... orderly.  Where's the monster volume, for one?  Uh, nope.  Not yet.

I'd be careful here.  Washouts usually come on major volume.  Which means this may be a ripple or...... a warning.  Exactly none of the "aw crap!" indicators I have on my screen here are flashing "wash-out" or "panic."  Not yet.

Here's the challenge when it comes to China.  Yes, their economy is unstable.  Yes, they'd like to own the world.  Yes, they're Communists -- real ones, not the fake stuff some people talk about over here.  Yes, the CCP (or PLA) will make you "disappear" if they don't like you.  Yes, they have a whole crap-ton of political prisoners and more than a few religious ones too.  We'd never do anything like that, right?

But this also means that the CCP has a habit of "back door" protecting everyone they like and screwing everyone else.  Oh, nobody thought of that, did they?   How much leverage was on with these positions?  You expect honest answers out of the Chinese?  Certainly they'll be as "honest" as those out of Fauci, right?

What's interesting when I look at the board is who is getting hit on a differential basis.  Some names I'd expect, but others I would not.  Is it entirely the speculative cohort?   No.  Those linked to Chinese supply?  No.  Hmmm.....

I'm watching this carefully, but I'm sure not buying here.

There's the smell of smoke in the air, and I just saw a cockroach.

Bet that it isn't the only one.

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2021-03-13 09:39 by Karl Denninger
in Stupidity , 539 references
[Comments enabled]  

Doc: Thank you for registering for the Covid-19 vaccine; your turn has come!  Roll up your sleeve please.

Victim: The CDC, my governor and health department all say it's perfectly safe, effective and tested.  Is this true?

Doc: Oh absolutely.  The FDA and your government would have never allowed it otherwise, and I'm sure of it (swabs arm with alcohol)

Victim: I'm very happy to hear that sir; you see, my son likes me quite a lot, and he's rather concerned about the safety of these vaccines.  He's waiting for me out in the car and before I came in he swore to me that if you're lying both you and your wife will be the guests of honor on over our fire pit this evening -- on a spit.  Having been his primary male influence since he first came out of my wife's vagina and knowing full well he's not an NPC like you've made so many other people into with your previous crazy pronouncements on masks, distancing and such I happen to believe he means it.  He also just spent his $1,400 stimulus check on cases of BBQ sauce, a big pile of charcoal and a really nice set of butcher knives.  Thank God Biden provided him with the means to do that; after all, he did lose his job when the bar he used to work at as a bouncer was forced closed because of the Coof.

Doc?

Doc!  Why you running away doc?  I thought you were going to give me the safe and effective Covid-19 jab!

smiley

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2021-02-15 10:13 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1714 references
[Comments enabled]  

Terrorism (n): The calculated use of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological. (Department of Defense Dictionary)

It's interesting to contemplate that the "strict" meaning of the word "violence" does not include releasing or potentiating the effects of infectious or poisonous agents, yet such is clearly terrorism.  It therefore follows that causing death by infectious or poisonous agents by either intentionally ignoring known means to stop said death when undertaken for political or ideological purposes fits the definition.

Back in February, March and April of 2020 when Covid-19 first started knocking people over in the US in size we had good reason to believe a significant number of existing off-patent, inexpensive drugs and other therapies might work to blunt the pandemic's impact.  We did not know which ones would work but we had reason to believe any or all of the following might along with several more.  I wrote on them at the time, and the record stands in the published works of many, myself included.

Exactly zero funding, studies and other efforts were set up in those months by the CDC, NIH, Johns Hopkins, Vanderbilt, Mayo and dozens of others to run down the efficacy of any of those compounds.  Several entities performed fairly low-level screening against mechanisms of action and developed lists of potential therapeutics.  None of these compounds or strategies had a profit motive associated with them since they were all off-patent and cheap.  This should have immediately led to large-scale trial registration for every one of these compounds since all were already known, approved drugs with a well-studied risk profile and the obvious thing to do with a new infectious agent was to investigate them all to see which, if any, might work.  Instead of investigating these drugs and other agents all of the agencies in question started recommending and working on vaccines, "social distancing" and then masks, the latter of which had 40 years of science demonstrating worthlessness as source control against viruses with the possible exception of N95s that are both expensive and impractical for the general public to use.

Never mind that now we're seeing actual scientific studies documenting harms of mask use specifically with regard to children.  Those forced to wear masks as adults for occupational reasons can be expected to have similar problems.  Given that children almost never get seriously ill and die from Covid for them to bear any burden as a consequence of this disease is an outrage; it is identical to telling children they may not drink out of a glass because some percentage of adults use a glass to get drunk and destroy their livers.

Other nations where corruption of the medical system -- and the money that drives it -- are less-present or they simply don't have the money for much of a medical system at all studied these compounds and actions as a means to blunt the impact of the pandemic on their population.  In short those "back woods worthless brown and black people" undertook attempts to save their population from the ravages of a disease while the richest nations in the world with a hundred times their resource deliberately refused to participate.  I'm sure our government and these so-called "public interest" entities like the Gates Foundation would have loved to stop such research, but they had no way to do so and those health systems were looking for ways to stop not just patient death but employee illness and death as well.

Over the first few months we had reports from various physicians all over the world that some of these suspected compounds worked but even then they were intentionally not followed up by our so-called "public health" agencies and institutions in both the US and most other western nations and those physicians in our country who did pursue them and found them effective were pilloried or even threatened with being fired or having their medical licenses suspended.  Indeed in several states pharmacy boards and even Governors prohibited the perfectly-legal off-label use of some of these drugs, issuing mandates prohibiting the filling of prescriptions.

Again: These are compounds whether drug or nutritional supplement where there is no profit motive to drive million dollar clinical trials; if you "win" you make no money.  Performing such research is exactly why we grant non-profit status to various research and teaching entities and fund them internally in our governments and they deliberately refused to fulfil that part of their mission.

In addition we knew after the Kirkland outbreak happened in February of 2020 that nursing homes were wildly vulnerable environments and that allowing any traffic in and out was extremely dangerous since an enormous percentage of those living in such facilities died when they got infected.  Yet for months we did nothing to shut down all such sources of infection being brought into these environments by employees and in fact in many states we had governors who intentionally enhanced transmission into these facilities by forcing infected and thus known-dangerous persons to be admitted.

So let's go down the list of what we can back up with research that was intentionally not done yet was known likely effective back in March and April.  We will start with those steps that had zero risk and move upward.

  • Segregation of nursing home employees: Known in March after Kirkland.  Not done in one single state by one single governor, all of whom could have done so.  Forbidding cross-employment in multiple facilities, moonlighting and segregating all employees in such facilities into a small hotel rented and paid for by the state so as to physically isolate all staff members from outside infection would have prevented most of the nursing home deaths.  Yes, there would have been the inevitable leakage of an occasional infection into such a facility but nowhere near what did happen.  Doing so for four months would have been much cheaper than even the six week lockdown in the general society; only about 0.5% of our population resides in such places yet they have constituted an enormous percentage of the deaths.  Some people would have quit given this mandate but that's ok; have the government pay whatever is required to staff the jobs under that conditionThis one step alone would have prevented 50,000+ deaths in the first four months, it was an obvious and effective thing to do and despite people including myself calling for it that step was not taken; these deaths are directly chargeable against every single Governor personally along with every public health department as grossly-negligent manslaughter or even Murder 2 as a result of depraved indifference.  Indeed some governors (e.g. Cuomo) did the exact opposite and intentionally forced infected people into those homes, wildly accelerating mortality.

  • Vitamin C: Believed effective, now disproved by study.  IV use may be effective (insufficient evidence and of course limited to hospitals since it's an IV.)

  • Zinc: Alone believed effective on the basis of multiple nostrums sold for viral interdiction (including colds), now disproved by study.  Possibly effective if used with HCQ or Quercetin (not studied sufficiently as far as I know; the mechanism of action is plausible but as you can see the ground is littered with those attempts.)

  • Famotidine (Pepcid): Believed potentially effective but disproved by study.

  • Vitamin D: The association between severe deficiency and serious or fatal Covid-19 infection was known in April with an extremely high degree of correlation.  A pilot study was conducted and reported out in August showing a stunning reduction in mortality and ICU admission for those administered Vitamin D at admission to the hospital.  The risk associated with advising people to not be Vitamin D deficient and to test for and immediately correct same on hospital admission is ZEROthere is no medical risk whatsoever to correcting such a deficiency and advising the population to do so at large (e.g. via a daily multivitamin), along with checking for and correcting it immediately when Covid-19 infection is suspected.  A later and larger study in Barcelona across 550 patients just reported out, confirming the earlier findings with a 60% reduction in mortality when checked at the time of hospital admission.  SIXTY PERCENT!

  • Steroid Inhalers: A doctor out of Texas reported this quite early and he was immediately labeled a quack by the mainstream media and so-called medical "experts."  I was skeptical on this one because during replication suppression of the immune system can be very bad news and there are warnings on commonly-prescribed systemic steroids (e.g. prednisone) related to increased infection susceptibility.  But -- as it turns out there is now science on inhaled steroids and the study in question was just reported out in Australia.  The findings?  90% reduction in hospitalization.  NINETY PERCENT!  In fact they stopped the study early because it was ruled unethical to deny treatment to the control group with results of this magnitude and statistical significance.  These are over the counter drugs in many nations; in the US it's prescription-only and wildly marked up at retail but they cost almost nothing in other countries.  Obviously if you don't go to the hospital you don't die either, right?  Guess what also doesn't happen?  The hospital doesn't make any money if you can puff on that thing three times a day for a few days and the infection is conquered ninety percent of the time.  Yeah.

  • Hydroxychloroquine: Turned into a political football immediately when Trump mentioned it, this is a cheap anti-malarial that has been used for decades with a very well-understood safety profile which we had good reason to believe would likely work on the science, and knew so 15 years previous.  This was noted (in the "chloroquine" form, which is more dangerous to use) as a likely effective agent against SARS in 2005 and should have been studied immediately by the NIH on that basis alone.  It's primary risk factor is in people with cardiac problems, which of course increase in prevalence with age.  Henry Ford Health System (SE Michigan) subsequently ran a pretty-conclusive trial (decent recruitment, randomization, number of persons included in both arms, etc.) on it -- a very well-respected hospital network -- and found it helpful, substituting doxycycline for Z-pak which was an identified cardiac risk potentiator.  They were immediately buried with all manner of innuendo and criticism, issuing a press release that they would have no further comment in public nor would they work publicly on anything related in the future due to being attacked for the "offense" of reporting their medical research.  Work continued outside the US and some studies post that event intentionally set dosing that was into the poisoning range with an apparent intent to discredit the therapy and, in no surprise, when you give known-toxic doses of something bad things happened.  We now know from a large number of studies that in fact it works, but is less effective and has a higher risk profile than Ivermectin.  A registered trial intending to test it as combination therapy with Ivermectin appears to have never been actually enrolled or conducted.

  • Ivermectin: Known likely effective in April when a physician who identified it via a compound search started using it in Broward County FL.  He had nearly-nobody wind up dead while everyone else in the area had about the same percentage of people die.  You'd think that when some doctor suddenly has his fatality rate drop markedly compared to everyone else the entire medical establishment would sit up, take notice and do what he or she does.  After all the cardinal definition of success in medicine is "keep the patient from dying", right?  Instead this was buried along with the HCQ controversy and deliberately ignored in the United States.  But in other nations, not so much -- Egypt and Argentina, to name just two of many, ran trials and found astounding efficiency for this drug in limiting severity of infection including direct clinical markers in patients in the hospital, which in several cases hit the magic p<0.001 number -- that is, statistically improbable beyond reason to be due to random chance.  There are now more than three dozen studies on this drug and every single one of them has reported it to be effective. In addition there is overwhelming data on safety since this drug has been used for decades in humans; the base risk of significant adverse events is 6/100,000, a safety record unmatched by virtually any pharmacologically active compound and many if not most of those adverse events were likely due to the infection being treated rather than the drug.  Merck has now tried to do the same thing to Ivermectin that was done with HCQ claiming there is insufficient "safety data" on the drug despite 30 years and many billions of doses of the drug dispensed for human use.

The important point here folks is that all of this formal study work came from outside the United States and the one time a large, nationally-recognized medical group attempted such a study here in the US they were pilloried and literally driven to silence by political activism.  This is not a singular event either; FLCCC, a group of physicians, had the video of their sworn Senate Testimony removed by Youtube!

We had several months in which to do said follow-up and deliberately did not.  There was not one dollar spent on any of this by the NIH, which Fauci and his wife (who gates research dollars as she runs the "bioethics" group) effectively operate.  Several of these drugs and therapies were directly recommended against by the NIH and FDA, including HCQ and Ivermectin.  The doctor who first came up with the steroid inhaler therapy here in the US was branded a quack by multiple so-called medical "experts" and the media.

Given this and the deliberate attacks on Henry Ford for running a trial on HCQ does this sound like public health or does it sound like the suppression of medical study and testing resulting in death for political and/or ideological goals?

Dr. Fauci has now confirmed by his own words that his and the CDC's goals are political; that his and the CDC's "new" guidelines on schools (while, I remind you, Florida has had their schools safely open for months without these thingsare conditioned on passage of the legislation currently being written in Congress.

Now let's talk about the numbers of deaths directly chargeable to this terrorism -- that is, the deliberate infliction of death through willful and intentional interference with testing known safe and potentially effective therapies and strategies that served to deliberately propagate a biological agent causing death which, if they had been undertaken, investigated and those that proved up made widely available would have dramatically changed the course of this disease, all of which by the totality of the evidence was done with the explicit goal of inculcating fear and driving a political or ideological outcome.

Had we segregated nursing home workers immediately after Kirkland 50,000 of the 140,000 people who died in the first few months would not have died from Covid.  Every single one of the Governors and the Federal Government are directly and personally responsible for these deaths and should be tried and get the needle for the mass-death they caused through depraved indifference to human life.

Had we acted on the Vitamin D deficiency data we had in April which had a zero risk of adverse effects in correcting either in the population or on hospital admission 60% of all persons who have died would not have died.  Again there is zero risk associated with making sure you're not Vitamin-D deficient.  Between these first two actions the death toll through June would have been under 40,000; a reduction in death between the two of 70%.

Had we spent the few tens of millions of dollars in March through June testing the steroid inhalers and Ivermectin, along with the other drugs that did not prove up we could have released the employee lockdown on nursing homes by the end of June and 95% of all the people who died from July onward, which now total more than 300,000 would not have died from a Covid-19 associated illness.  In other words only about another 15,000 people would have passed from that date onward. 

This is materially less, by a factor of more than 75%, than the flu kills in an average year.  Statistically that is a zero and while all death is sad that certainly is not an emergency as extended over a year's time it is materially less than the flu's annual burden.

There would have been no desire or need for "emergency" vaccines with an unknown set of intermediate and long-term risks; if vaccines were indicated they could have gone through regular testing and, in the fullness of time, perhaps been approved.

There would have been no need for "emergency" ventilators at the cost of billions which, we later learned, were both unnecessary and useless.

The trillions of dollars emitted and doled out with most of it going to big business and political cronies would have never occurred and the inflation destruction that is certain to follow in the years ahead would have been avoided.

There would have been no reason to keep a single school closed.

There would have been no call for mask mandates, distancing, closing businesses or anything else.

Essentially all of the unemployment, business destruction, wildly skewed preference and the driving of business to large national and multi-national firms such as Amazon, WalMart and others would not have occurred.

The entirety of the tourism and hospitality business would have been back to normal by August including cruises, air travel and the rest.

In short by the end of summer everything would have been back to normal including our economy.

The pandemic and fear would have been over in the summer and stayed over with cheap, inexpensive and readily-available drugs and vitamin supplements that have been known to be safe and can be bought anywhere for pennies.  If you got Covid-19 a couple of doses of Ivermectin and a few puffs on a steroid inhaler would have turned 95% of the hospitalizations and deaths that occurred into nuisances no more serious than a common cold or mild flu.  Further we would have achieved and maintained herd immunity through what would be a nuisance infection similar to that of common colds and flus by now since the infections would still happen, virtually everyone would have been infected and recovered by late summer and yet serious harm or death would have come to statistically nobody.

It can still be over without a single jab in the arm or any of the risks associated with it today, right here and now in the space of a single day, via the exact same mechanism at near-zero cost and inconvenience, job loss or economic damage.

Some of those first 40,000 dead would have died due to lack of knowledge of how to mitigate the risk and treat vulnerable people.  That sucks but was unavoidable since we did not know which pharmaceutical and nutritional agents were effective.

95% of the rest, and 95% of those who get the virus and die today are doing so as a direct result of intentional actions by State Governors, the President of the United States both past and present, the CDC, the NIH and every single so-called "public health" institution including the hospitals, teaching and research universities including but not limited to IHME, Vanderbilt, Johns Hopkins and countless more.

There is no reason for any of this to continue, there is no reason to wear a mask as they are worthless and in fact can cause harm, there is no reason to distance or stay away from each other, there is no reason to torture our kids with school restrictions and there is no reason to take a vaccine.

None of it is necessary on the science because we know how to stop nearly all such infections from becoming serious or fatal at the cost of literal pennies.  We had good reason to believe all of this would work in March and April, we knew factually that locking in nursing home employees would work in March, and we intentionally refused to investigate those drugs or lock nursing home employees in away from sources of infection. We did pillory the few health systems and physicians that dared launch their own investigation and report the results.

Despite that intentional obstruction in the US and western nations other countries have done the work and now the results and the jury are both in -- like it or not.

Our government -- including Federal, State and Local officials, in concert with both the medical system and our alleged "public health" agencies deliberately spread disease and caused death for the last year, directly and through depraved indifference, killing approximately 400,000 Americans thus far and is killing thousands more every single day.  We knew how to stop the death in nursing homes in February of 2020 and we knew how to stop 95% of the deaths in the general population this summer using cheap and available nutritional supplements and off-patent medications.  Rather than fulfill their legal duty both by their oaths of office and in the case of non-profits and public health organizations the duties set forth in their charter and the reason for their tax exemptions they instead conspired with commercial interests to allow and even promote such death so as to inculcate fear in the population for the purpose of political, ideological and financial gain.

BY THE CLEAR DEFINITION OF THE TERM AND THE FACTS THESE PEOPLE SHOULD BE PROPERLY CALLED TERRORISTS AND THESE SHOULD BE PROPERLY CALLED ACTS OF TERRORISM.

These actions are deliberately being undertaken and have been since March of 2020, and have caused mass death, for the express purpose of a political and/or ideological result.

That is the entire point of terrorism -- to scare people into compliance with a set of political or ideological demands by making the public fear that they will die next if they do not do as the terrorists demand.

WELL?

We're coming up on 500,000 dead Americans folks and most of those deaths were avoidable.

Something like 130+ times the number of people Bin Laden killed on 9/11 in avoidable deaths were caused by intentional refusal to follow up on what was learned and even harassment of well-respected medical institutions that dared to speak against their suppression was undertaken with another 9/11's worth of death being accrued at present every single day.

I am not afraid of this virus because I have read and understood the evolving science since the start of this mess and have acquired beginning in March the agents necessary to prevent, with a 95% certainty, the harms it may cause.  Over time I've discarded a few of those potential treatments as they were either found to be ineffective or replaced with more-effective ones.  I have ensured I am not Vitamin-D deficient since that has zero risk to my person and costs pennies.  As a result despite being 57 years of age and thus at allegedly "higher risk" it is clear on the science that this virus is no more dangerous to me than the common cold and I have exactly zero concern about contracting it.  I have lived my unmasked life for the last year and will continue to; you may take your "mandates" intended to scare me and shove them straight up your ass.

I no longer give a wet crap about terrorists using bombs, knives, guns, trucks, airplanes or even a nuclear weapon and never will again since our nation has decided that its perfectly ok for terrorists in our government and health care institutions to kill thousands of Americans every day on purpose for a year straight and will not punish those who are doing it or force them to stop.  Every terrorist who has attacked an American interest in this history of this nation combined has not come close to the body count of the ghouls who together are responsible for nearly half a million dead American souls.

And since the vast majority of the population are by the clear record terrorist sympathizers in that the people of this nation refuse to rise and put a stop to this crap if I come upon your overturned vehicle or otherwise find you in peril unlike the two times in the previous 20 years when I stopped and rendered assistance, in one case according to the EMTs likely saving the driver's life -- I'm continuing right on by.

Make your peace with God for as long as this state of affairs continues I swear on my eternal soul I will not help any who may have conspired to shove nearly half a million Americans in hole for political purposes.

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2021-01-31 09:15 by Karl Denninger
in Other Voices , 466 references
[Comments enabled]  

Note -- this is a guest post thus the "Other Voices" category; the author(s) have asked to remain unattributed.   There have been no edits other than spacing and formatting necessary to post, and make sure the links to references display.

Many questions remain unanswered about the origin of SARS-CoV-2, and we are certainly not the only scientists that have them. There are likely benign convincing explanations to everything, but to date we have not seen them. 

Some will say: why does knowing the origin matter? It matters for several reasons. First of all, it will help us plan for the future. If this indeed was a virus that arose from close contact with wildlife and humans, this contact in the future will have to be managed. Secondly, if in the unlikely event this was perhaps escape from a lab, then lab procedures will have to be evaluated, and lab experiments with infectious possibly pandemic viruses will have to be additionally regulated. Finally, if this again was an unlikely escape from a lab, then knowing the exact type of virus we are dealing with would help us manage the current pandemic.

The story starts, we believe, with a noble goal: to prevent the world from ever having the type of pandemic we are currently experiencing, through production of a vaccine effective against all coronaviruses past and future.

Coronavirus vaccines can be difficult to make. In animals, while vaccines are sometimes successful, toxicity of the vaccine as well as incomplete immunity can happen. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7284272/ .

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19) is a lot like SARS-CoV (SARS). SARS initially hit China and East Asia in 2003, killed 774 people, infected over 8000, and scared everyone. For the past 17 years there has been an enormous effort worldwide to develop a vaccine not only against SARS but also against all coronavirus strains. As we have detailed in another post, scientists knew in 2006 that recombinant spike protein RBD vaccines to SARS didn’t protect all animals from a re-challenge from a slightly different mutated coronavirus ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124095/pdf/978-0-387-33012-9_Chapter_101.pdf ). Young animals can gain immunity, but it can be harder to get protective immunity in older animals ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17194199/ ). 

Killed whole coronavirus vaccines in animal models of SARS infection demonstrated that in some animals such as ferrets, killed whole virus vaccines gave a predominant Th2 response (you want Th1) and that there was an antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of lung toxicity in mice ( https://jvi.asm.org/content/85/23/12201 ). This led to the idea of a live attenuated coronavirus vaccine ( https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro3143 ) ( https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.2972 ) ( https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.1635 ), which is a vaccine that infects and reproduces in a human, results in immunity, but does not cause severe disease.

This has been an important issue since the SARS pandemic in 2003 and was reinforced by MERS epidemic in 2012. Enormous amounts of resources and human effort have been thrown at this problem, and these resources have come from just about everyone: governments, industry, NGOs, and philanthropy. 

Various live virus attenuated recombinant vaccines have two issues among many. First, these vaccines have to be able to be grown in culture in great quantity for testing and for mass production. Second, the vaccines can mutate and revert back to severe pathogenicity once administered, especially in those with weaker innate immune systems. These dual problems have confronted vaccine developers. 

To make a recombinant attenuated live coronavirus vaccine that you can grow in culture, it should be pretty obvious that (a) you have to have it gain function to make it more viable in culture; and (b) while at the same time make it less pathogenic and less able to recombine. These are somewhat contradictory goals and can be hard to do.

Live attenuated vaccines can be hard to make without them mutating a lot in culture in ways you do not expect, not being able to grow them in culture to make lots of virus to work with, and without them reverting back to a dangerous live virus once someone (animal or human) is vaccinated, as happened in 1998 with a live attenuated poliovirus vaccination on the island of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11896235/ ).

Virologists have been making recombinant man-made coronaviruses to try to find one that is safe and will work as an attenuated vaccine for over 15 years. To do this they use “reverse genetic systems” to make the virus they want in bacteria or yeast ( https://www.pnas.org/content/100/22/12995 )( https://www.pnas.org/content/110/40/16157 ). In these reverse genetic systems, to make man-made viruses with specific functions, mutations are inserted into the DNA copies of the virus. Bacteria or yeast make lots of these DNA copies, which are added mammalian cells in culture to provide live RNA viruses in the fluid surrounding them. These fluids containing the man-made viruses can then be used to infect animals or people ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19036930/ ). The goals of these experiments were likely twofold: (1) to find out how viruses like SARS can jump from bats to humans, to develop countermeasures; and (2) to develop universal vaccines to protect the world in the case of a coronavirus pandemic.

Scientists have used several man-made strategies to make viruses weaker to use as possible coronavirus vaccines. These strategies included increasing the number of attenuating mutations in the virus through alteration of a necessary viral RNA proofreading enzyme called ExoN ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3518599/ ), but these types of viruses were found to revert to a more aggressive phenotype with long term culture of 250 passages ( https://mbio.asm.org/content/8/6/e01503-17.abstract ). Viruses also were mutated to not recombine with each other (possibly increasing virulence through recombination) by changing a viral RNA “leader” sequence (ACGAAC to UGGUCGC) possibly responsible for this recombination ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-018-0175-7 ).  Additionally, there has been consideration to mutate viruses in a way, called “codon de-optimization” in which the RNA of the virus is changed to make the same viral proteins, but make them slower, and thus have slower virus growth ( https://jvi.asm.org/content/89/7/3523 ). This has been done for multiple viruses including influenza ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20543832/ ). 

As noted above, a major issue with experiments like these is that to fully examine the ways viruses jump from bats to people, and to fully develop man-made recombinant vaccines sometimes viruses are unexpectedly made that have the potential to become much more transmissible in animals and possibly in humans. These are called “gain-of-function” experiments. This appeared to happen in at least one experiment in mice published in 2015 ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26552008/ ). The danger of these experiments needs to be carefully weighed against the possible costs, since leaks from laboratories of viruses are not uncommon ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC416634/ ), and if a gain of function strain were to escape, we could have a pandemic similar to the one we are currently experiencing.

The US scientific community held a symposium in 2014, which led to the banning of funding of these “gain of function” experiments https://mbio.asm.org/content/5/6/e02366-14 . This ban was rescinded in 2016 https://osp.od.nih.gov/biotechnology/gain-of-function-research/ . Minutes of the meetings of the advisory body (the National Scientific Advisory Board for Biosecurity, or NSABB) to help the NIH and Secretary of Health (at the time, Sylvia Burwell) to decide to rescind the ban were heated ( https://osp.od.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/NSABB_January_2016_Meeting_Minutes.pdf ). The NSABB members asked for multiple safety “guardrails” for this research to proceed.

In 2013, six miners in Yunnan Province, 550 miles south of Wuhan, were cleaning out a copper mine of bat droppings. They all developed a severe pneumonia with symptoms very similar to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, and three died. During the workup of these miners it was determined that several of the miners developed antibodies to a SARS-like coronavirus ( https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6981198-Analysis-of-Six-Patients-With-Unknown-Viruses.html ).

The WIV (Wuhan Institute of Virology) became involved, and in 2013-2014 isolated viruses from fecal swabs of 276 bats in the cave and found novel SARS-like coronaviruses in 138 of them. These samples were brought to Wuhan for further study. Manuscripts describing these viruses were published in 2016, but for some reason the publication left out the deaths of the miners from the cave ( https://www.pnas.org/content/100/22/12995 ) ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7090819/ ).

Investigators then determined that about 9% of residents of villages around the Yunnan cave had developed antibodies to a SARS-like coronavirus, yet none of them appeared to have severe symptoms. All of these villagers described bats flying around, and none of them visited the cities where SARS was endemic in 2003, so they likely developed an asymptomatic infection ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178078/ ). 

This experiment of nature likely became a matter of intense interest. How could these humans around the cave be exposed to bats carrying a supposedly lethal SARS-like coronavirus yet have no or minimal symptoms? The implications of the answers to this question were obvious: (a) bat to human transmission could be probed in depth, and (b) a live attenuated vaccine to coronavirus could be developed by mimicking the natural process that led to an attenuated virus that caused antibody production to a SARS-like coronavirus without symptoms.

It is entirely possible that investigators at the WIV could have been performing such experiments in coronavirus gain-of-function manipulation, trying to obtain a live attenuated virus for an attenuated vaccine, based on coronaviruses isolated from Yunnan province or elsewhere, when there was a laboratory accident/leak of virus sometime in the fall of 2019.

Prominent virologists argued in a letter to Nature Medicine in early March ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 ) that lab escape, while not being entirely ruled out, was unlikely. Yet there are a number of unusual features of SARS-CoV-2, as well as some unusual scientific behavior of Chinese and US investigators, that requires explanation. Hopefully there are simple and trivial explanations, and that SARS-CoV-2 can be explained as a natural experiment that mimicked very closely a series of laboratory experiments performed in the exact place (Wuhan) where the virus was initially found in humans.

These questions point to a manipulated virus, which may have escaped from a WIV lab. These questions can be answered by an independent audit of the WIV P4 laboratories where the novel coronaviruses were being studied, which would have been one of the first steps international authorities usually take. Such an independent audit has not taken place, which is highly unusual scientific behavior.

Hopefully there are simple and trivial explanations, and that SARS-CoV-2 can be explained as a natural experiment that mimicked very closely a series of experiments performed in the exact place (Wuhan) where the virus was initially found in humans.

These questions, in no particular order, are as follows:

  • Why didn’t the investigators mention the 2013 deaths of the miners from a likely novel coronavirus in their 2016 paper describing the sequence of novel Yunnan coronaviruses ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7090819/ )? This would have been a matter of intense interest worldwide.

  • SARS-CoV-2, from its earliest isolates, appears to have optimal spike protein binding to ACE2, with very few new receptor binding domain (RBD) mutations in SARS-CoV-2 ( https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.074567v2 ). Usually viruses like coronavirus adapt their spike protein over time to bind human ACE2 more tightly. Can this be explained naturally?

  • A pangolin coronavirus isolated in 2019 under study at the WIV and elsewhere appears to have an RBD of its spike protein is very close to SARS-CoV-2 (97.4% amino acid homology) where the rest of this pangolin coronavirus has less homology (85-92%) ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0 ). RaTG13 has a lot less homology in the RBD with SARS-CoV-2, yet is more than 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2 over the entire virus ( https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30262-2.pdf ). Recombination to make SARS-CoV-2 from an ancestor of these two viruses would be an extremely rare one-time event. Is there a natural explanation for this?

  • In 2018, experiments with a novel recombinant SARS coronavirus substituted the typical TRS transcription leader and body sequences with a novel sequence (UGGUCGC) in an attempt to further reduce recombination in animal models as a live vaccine candidate ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-018-0175-7#Sec7 ). This TRS leader sequence, supposedly novel, is found starting at nucleotide 1465 in SARS-CoV-2 and could result, if utilized, in a novel viral RNA transcript that deletes part of the nsp2 protein of the ORF 1ab polyprotein. It is also found at nucleotide 1446 in RaTG13, one of the viruses found in the Yunnan cave in 2013, which has been proposed as a precursor to SARS-CoV-2. It is found in that area in no other coronavirus. This novel TRS sequence is also found in the 3’ ends of viral spike RNA transcripts of SARS-CoV. Why was this not mentioned in the 2018 paper describing the novel TRS sequence recombinant viruses? Is there an explanation for this? 

  • A recombinant SARS-like coronavirus (SHC015-MA15) containing a human SARS Urbani spike protein sequence inserted into a mouse adapted SARS-like coronavirus was found to develop increased pathogenicity during infection of aged but not young mice compared to the parent MA15 strain in a 2015 publication ( https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 ). The RNA sequence of this recombinant manipulated coronavirus was not deposited in Genbank until May 2020, five years later ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0924-2 ). This is highly unusual behavior. Is there an explanation for this?

  • In the publication of SHC015-MA15 above in November 2015, the attribution of funding of Shi Zheng Li by the US NIAID was initially left out ( https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0416-446d ).  It was reinstated in the publication in 2016 in a corrigendum, perhaps after the meeting in January 2016 to possibly reinstate NIH funding for gain of function virus research. This is also unusual scientific behavior. Is there an explanation for this?

  • After amino acid 604 of the spike protein of RaTG13, there is no difference between the spike of RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2, yet other coronaviruses have multiple differences in this area ( https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30262-2.pdf ).  The only difference between these two viruses is in the PRRA furin cleavage site, and there are novel nucleotide changes apparently inserted into SARS-CoV-2 that allow insertion of this furin cleavage site into RaTG13 ( https://medium.com/@yurideigin/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748 ).  Is there a natural explanation for this?

There are quite possibly very simple and very benign explanations for all of these questions as well as others. They likely can be answered by a simple independent audit of the WIV P4 laboratories where the novel coronaviruses were being studied. This is one of the first steps international authorities usually take. Such an independent audit has not taken place, which is highly unusual scientific behavior.

The origin of the virus is extremely important in helping us determine what is going to happen going forward in the pandemic, as well as to suggest what possible therapies could have activity. 

It is therefore critical that we determine a precisely as we can the origin of the virus.

We are not the only scientists considering this.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bies.202000091 

We do not want in any way to cast aspersions on individual scientists or countries. All we want to do, as we have done from the beginning, is ask questions of the data.  We hope that there is international cooperation to put this issue to rest, hopefully with a benign conclusion. We also hope there is again widespread honest discussion about the risks and the benefits of gain of function viral research.

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2021-01-11 10:39 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1021 references
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You didn't actually buy into the bull**** thrown around in US Government Schools did you?

You know, the Marx definition?

A political theory derived from the writings of Karl Marx in which all property is publicly owned, each person working and receiving according to their abilities and needs.

I have spent most of my nearly 14 years here writing on Communism when it comes to the United States in one form or another.  And no, it's not Marx.  Marx's "economic theories" are a result of Communism but, as Bradford found out at Plymouth, they don't work.  They don't work because you cannot compel people to produce beyond a minimum level, and that minimum level, extended to all of society, produces less than society requires to sustain itself.

This is why such attempts always fail and usually take the government down with them.  Bradford aborted the attempt before it killed everyone (including him) at Plymouth; facing starvation and disease with a rapidly-dwindling population has a way of focusing the mind.

No, folks, Communism is not primarily an economic model or function.  Indeed, you get that outcome, but that's not the reason for it, it's a side effect.  Karl Marx was a conniving **********, not some visionary, although I can't prove he intentionally misled the world (he seems to be dead so I can't corner him and insist he answer) but the manifest weight of the evidence is clear.

Communism is a type of organization of political power in which those who are in The Party are entitled to do whatever they wish; the alleged "laws" within that political area apply only to those who are not in The Party.  The above, that of private property and contractual rights to set the terms of one's labor is one of the public and visible manifestations of this but is not the central point nor the goal of it.  You can neither set the terms of your labor or own property if you are not considered to have human rights in the first instance and the creation and enforcement of that differentiation between people is the definition.

Do recall that we nominated and are about to inaugurate a President and Vice-President who between them:

  • Literally sucked and ****ed her way to political power.  This isn't a salacious charge it's admitted by the person who got the sucking and did the ****ing, who has also disavowed said beneficiary (Harris).

  • Literally smoked joints while prosecuting those who were also smoking joints, an act that was illegal at the time, and threw the other people in prison for it by her own admission.  (Harris again)

  • Literally shielded his son from the just consequences of consuming a wildly illegal substance in a rental car, leaving not only irrefutable evidence (a used glass pipe full of residue) behind that almost-certainly was covered with his fingerprints but also his identification in said vehicle, proving that it was he who was in the car and consuming said substances, all of which are felonies in that state. (Biden)

  • On the manifest weight of the evidence the FBI and DOJ have had in their possession proof, in the form of a laptop drive image, of felony conduct involving children with said family member and conclusive evidence that the remaining members of the family knew about and did not report same to the authorities.  In other words, the manifest weight of the evidence is that the parents of at least one said involved minor intentionally prevented the law from being enforced.  (Biden again.)  There is, apparently, on said laptop multiple other images of other children that nobody dare display because they are per-se illegal child pornography.  The FBI had this evidence in their hands a year prior to the election and intentionally did nothing with it.

  • On the manifest weight of the evidence both the Ukraine and China bribed, through the provision of funds to a member of the Biden family of which a piece, 10% it is said, was directly funneled to Joe Biden himself.  At least one of the trips to China involving said member of the family took place on an official US Government aircraft, Air Force 2.  The person bribed had no specific nor general business experience that qualified them to have anything to do with the ventures in question; their only rational reason to employ said person was their direct connection to the Vice President of the United States who got paid for same.

And in nine days these two Party Members will become President and Vice-President.

But this is just the latest in a long line of such abuses.

Over the last year myriad people favored by The Party looted, broke into and destroyed government offices and committed countless acts of arson against both government offices and private property.  They got streets painted in their name including in Washington DC and have not been arrested, indicted and prosecuted.  Our VP-to-be, a Party Member, directly advocated for and raised funds to bail them out of the petty charges lodged against them.  One of The Party sycophants published a photo of herself holding the President's severed head in effigy and this was not deemed "incitement" while an exhortation to peacefully march in Washington DC was.  You see, President Trump, having been a Party Member for a good long time, was declared expelled before the 2016 election and thus subject to any form of abuse desired by The Party up to and including calling for his beheading.

For forty years the entire Medical System in this country has been comprised of Party Members.  In the late 1970s and early 1980s two seminal cases, Royal Drug and Maricopa County, both at the Supreme Court, found that US antitrust law, 15 USC Chapter 1, applied in full to the medical and pharmaceutical industries.  I remind you that this law is not just a civil statute it carries criminal felony penalties including 10 year prison terms for each violation.

In the 40 years since not one person in The Party has been charged and sent to prison under these laws.

This very same industry has led to 350,000 deaths in America over the last nine months, many of which occurred due to deliberate acts of both obstruction and commission.  Post Kirkland we locked out visitors from nursing homes.  Not only does this means that every single person who died post that event in such a home was provably infected by a health care worker but in addition those residents were denied the basic status of human beings in that they were forcibly prevented from choosing to take the risk of their family members infecting them.  You see, those residents are not Party Members and thus do not have basic and allegedly unalienable human rights.  In addition these same Party Members have deliberately lied about the fact that we have known for forty years that masks less than N95s are worthless as "source control", that is, to prevent an infected person from spreading a disease to others.  Indeed these very Party Members have decreed that it is safe for them to be in said nursing home if they wear an N95 but you, as not a Party Member, cannot don the same PPE and visit your loved ones.  In other words you're not human and neither is your loved one in said place; they are not entitled to basic human rights and to make a decision of self-determination but if and when said Party Members kill your loved ones when their PPE proves ineffective that's just tough crap.

There is, incidentally, reason to believe N95s might be effective but that does not matter; mandates have dropped all over the world demanding you use known worthless devices as a "badge", an act of flat-out fraud. Indeed said mandates are functionally equivalent to The Star of David.

At the same time The Party has decreed that all such Party Members are to be proclaimed as heroes -- and don't you dare forget it or fail to acknowledge same lest you be canceled.

How did that happen?  You let it happen over the previous 40 years by allowing doctors, nurses, hospital administrators, so-called "public health" experts and others to become members of The Party and thus be immune from the very laws you must follow.  You, and your loved ones, are not Party Members and thus neither you or they have human rights anymore.

These very same Party Members then butchered your loved ones by refusing to tell them about the scientific evidence that showed there were both nutritional supplements and cheap drugs that might stop or reduce the severity of Covid-19.  As professionals who claim credentialism they had a professional and legal duty to so-inform you and let you make the decision as a human being between the risks and rewards associated with these options; the definition of human rights includes self-determination.  They instead have and continue to deny said choice to you, on purpose and contrary to actual law which states that off-label use of any drug is explicitly legal, all the way up to the NIH and FDA.  As a direct result 350,000 people are dead.  That is depraved indifference and it is happening every single hour of every day, right now.  Legally it is identical to me getting ****-faced in a bar and then driving a vehicle, in that if I then hit and kill someone I have committed manslaughter.  But you see -- I'm not a Party Member, thus I get prosecuted and they have and will not be.

Was Kennedy prosecuted?  You do remember that, right?

Kids in public schools?  They're not Party Members.  Thus when the Teacher's Unions block instruction and even worse, demand to be paid when they don't work -- money that comes out of your pocket, forcibly, in property taxes whether you rent or own where you live they are free to permanently impair the educational development of said children and make you pay for their non-work.

They're Party Members, you are not.  Millions of children permanently harmed are perfectly acceptable if it saves even ONE Party Member's life.  Ditto for all the suicides and drug overdoses caused by their "mitigating measures"; those people are not Party Members, you see, and thus are not entitled to basic human rights.

How many Governors, Mayors and similar have dropped mandates on the people in their jurisdictions whether it be "stay at home" orders, mask requirements or other constraints and then violated the very orders they issued themselves?  Has even one said person been arrested?  Nope.  Why?  They are Party Members and thus the law does not apply to them -- any law -- while you are not a Party Member and thus whatever they do to you is perfectly fine.

Amazon, for years, blatantly flouted State sales tax laws.  Their scheme was hardly novel; I contemplated the same scheme in the 1990s when I ran MCSNet and asked corporate counsel about it as we planned to expand to new states.  I got the "raised eyebrow" look from them, asking if I was writing a retainer check to them for not only inevitable litigation forcing me to pay the back taxes, penalties and interest but whether I was also going to engage their criminal defense attorneys when I was charged with felony tax evasion.  You see, I'm not a Party Member.  Beelzebezos is, however, so when he did the exact same thing he was not charged and never paid a nickel of back anything.  When challenged on not collecting and paying he folded every single time instead of going to court.  That is clear evidence that he knew damn well what he was doing was illegal and didn't care; he had no fear of the indictment nor financial penalty because...... wait for it...... HE IS A PARTY MEMBER.

The danger of course is that you can be kicked out of The Party and thinking you can't be is quite dangerous.  If you are kicked out then every single thing you've done that remains within the Statute of Limitations will come down on your head like a piano dropped from 20 floors up.  Weiner anyone?  Or, for that matter, Donald Trump?

Incidentally the current "impeachment" scream-fest out of Pelosi is just another example.  Impeachment is explicitly defined in the Constitution and the remedy afforded by said process is removal from office.  You can't remove someone who's no longer in office and as a result of the Senate's current pro-forma sessions (during which no actual business can be conducted), a status which cannot be voided without unanimous consent it is not possible under the law for The Senate to try an impeachment before January 20th at noon.  As such it is Constitutionally impossible to remove President Trump from office under impeachment nor can he be barred from running again because to take the second vote to do so the first must be sustained and, Constitutionally, the ability to try that impeachment in the Senate is mooted at noon on January 20th

Pelosi knows this full-well and doesn't care.  So why is she doing it?

Trump is an expelled former Party Member and thus the constraints of the Law, including the highest law of the land, do not prevent any action The Party desires to take against him, just like it's perfectly ok for a Party Member to kill your mother in a nursing home.  Note that this very same lack of constraint in the law applies to damn near each and every one of you too.

This, by the way, is why Trump and is entire family are all utterly ****ed the moment he leaves office.

Oh, this is new, you think?

How about Dennis Hastert. Did he go to jail for what he did, or was he later kicked out of The Party and thus suddenly exposed for lying about the purpose of his "hush money" payments?

How is it that the entire ******ned Catholic Church ran what can only be reasonably described as an organized homosexual child abuse ring for decades and yet as soon as the heat showed up the Priests involved were removed to the Vatican and, in at least one case, given a Basilica to preside over safe from extradition back to the US to face criminal charges?  Answer: They're PARTY MEMBERS, your son is not and thus he was their plaything and not entitled to basic human rights.

Marx's theory says that the Uygurs in China are entitled to each according to their needs.  Are they receiving that?  Nope; they're in concentration camps which are better described as slavery, since their labor is compelled and being used to make..... SHOES, among other things, for Party Members who reside in and sell said merchandise right here.  Cobalt for Tesla's batteries?  Same deal; forced child labor in the DRC.  Elon Musk is a PARTY MEMBER and thus his exploitation of said children without which he could not have built Tesla battery packs is permitted because said children are not human as they are NOT Party Members.

Stalin?  He sent how many to the Gulag?  Marx, again, stated they were all entitled according to their needs.  Did they get it?  Nope.

The Marxian theory taught in school is a lie; a convenient cover story and nothing more.

The truth is that Communism is simply a two-class system in which members of The Party are not bound by any law whatsoever provided the persons or rights abused are Non-Party Members, all of whom are declared not human and thus not entitled to even the basic humane treatment of a farm animal being raised for food.

If we as a people, 99% of whom are not Party Members, do not rise up and put a stop to this now across the board you are fully exposed to winding up in said Gulag or even joining your dead Grandmother who Party Members killed over the last nine months.  You have zero protection of any law provided the person or organization who chooses to abuse or even kill you in cold blood is a Party Member.  Yes, there are peaceful means to stop this -- for now.  At the point there aren't any more your option to resolve this will have expired and if you think you'll be allowed into The Party and thus protected for other than particular operational reasons you're deluded.

THIS is what Communism actually is and it's right here in the United States, right now, and has been for decades.

WAKE UP FOLKS.

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