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2020-05-27 11:18 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 79 references
 

 

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2020-05-27 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 625 references
[Comments enabled]  

One of my amusing pastimes this last weekend has been doing informal surveys of traffic patterns and hotels in my local area, along with a few others where I can check prices and availability.

Let me say this quite-clearly: Those who think people will put up with the "distancing" bullcrap and yet come out and spend money on vacations have another think coming; when you send a message that your employees are the Angel of Death people respond to that with the obvious and logical reaction.

Traffic was, shall we say, catastrophically bad in many areas.  Witless "reopened" northern Michigan but she may as well not have bothered.  Memorial Day Weekend is usually slammed up there to the point that Google Traffic looks like rivers of blood in every single town.  This weekend finding orange was hard.

The firms who have tried to be the "early birds" and open up to get the few worms might have had some business, but the bad news is that at 50% occupancy it's not enough and when you have people running marquees on (still closed) theaters telling tourists to stay home (as is in the case in at least one place I'm aware of up north) well, ok, I won't go spend the $500+ I was going to on a nice, expensive weekend between hotel, fuel and lots of good beer and food.

My not-so-old stomping grounds around Destin weren't any better.

I'm sure there will be plenty of lies out of the local Chambers of Commerce and those trying to make "good-good" out of what was a catastrophe when it comes to the gross receipts line.  Nobody's selling anything if there are no cars being driven around the area, and that's what reality was everywhere I looked.

The land of few Karens here might be sort of less catastrophic, but it still wasn't good.  Putting lipstick on a pig still leaves you with a pig, and that's what we got.  Hotel occupancy was perhaps 40-50%; it is usually flat-out slammed, period.

Then there's Cuomo who has now admitted that "we all failed" at predictions:

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo admitted Monday that coronavirus projections from experts were all wrong -- and he's getting out of the business of speculating because of it.

Cuomo said he can't predict when the hospitalization and death rate numbers will drop to the necessary threshold required for reopening certain regions because as he put it, "we all failed" at predicting.

So Cuomo can't predict when the numbers will meet Der Furher's requirements (his) but he believes the thresholds are still valid causes to remain closed -- which came from the very same people?  Excuse me?

And by the way, not everyone got this wrong.  Perhaps taking victory laps is "not very nice" but you might note the date on this article.

The bend should be evident in one viral generation time.  The new case rate should collapse in two viral generation times.  If Community Transmission via bars, restaurants and "social interaction" was more than 2/3rds of the total the effective R0 would go under 1.0 and community transmission would collapse.  If it was half then R0 would be 1.5 and we'd have transmission approximately equal to a bad seasonal flu.

IF you actually bent the curve.

What did I say at the time?  Let me quote it for you:

"Social distancing is close to worthless."

Oh by the way, what's the death and positive rate look like?

 

So cases continue to go up but the death count peaked in mid-April, flat-lined, and now has collapsed.

Why did all of this happen?

Let's recap: The "mitigations" were worthless.  That was established by the end of March.  I've pointed it out time after time; the curve of infection rate (not count, rate) bent before the steps taken could have had an effect.  That which occurs before you do something cannot be caused by the "something."  This isn't a matter of debate; it is fact and anyone arguing otherwise isn't a "scientist" -- they are committing fraud against you and in this case killing people, quite literally, along with murdering the economy.

Why did the death rate plateau and then collapse?  The governors seeded nursing homes but the virus ran out of people it could kill and thus, while there is still death and still infection by forcing the virus into nursing homes instead of protecting those who not only couldn't consent they couldn't leave either the virus is now running out of victims to slaughter.

As I've also repeatedly pointed out being at higher risk means just that; it doesn't mean you will necessarily die from this thing.  As I reported quite some time ago a very close friend (family in all but genetics or marriage) had his grandfather killed by this bug.  His grandmother, despite testing positive, being very old and full of co-morbidities as well, never even sneezed. Neither of them were in a "care home"; they both lived in their own house and thus caught the bug in their ordinary day-to-day life.  They took a calculated and known risk and one of them lost the bet, but at that age something is going to eventually get you.  Those who are in long term care facilities because they're unable to live independently didn't choose anything; they were effectively native Americans draped with smallpox-laden blankets by paleface jackasses who had every reason to believe doing so had a high probability of being lethal -- and for many of them it was.

The states where Governors forced care homes to take Covid-19+ patients had horrifyingly lethal results.  But even in those states where no such force was applied, such as Tennessee, half of all deaths were still sourced from there.  Exactly zero of the states have done anything proactive and effective about this problem -- such as locking in the caregivers and staff while paying them appropriately or even prohibiting moonlighting by said staff which can and likely has spread disease into at-risk seniors in private residences.  Further, despite South Korea documenting that post-exposure prophylaxis with HCQ worksknown since mid-April, exactly zero residents or caregivers in said homes have been offered it on a discretionary basis and neither federal or state governments have put in place a program to do so.  That is an act of deliberate blindness and between both force and deliberate blindness we can account for roughly half of all Covid-19 deaths.  In point of fact this is one of the worst incidents of mass-manslaughter with the victims totaling roughly the number dead from the Vietnam War ever visited upon any population and it is the Governors, state AGs and our President who are all jointly and severably responsible.

Every one of those bastards and bitches should be in prison right here and now; they had both the tools and data to stop this and intentionally refused.

Birx and others have repeatedly claimed we were in the "logarithmic" phase through April.  That's false and by the second week of April it was known to be a lie and thus could no longer be claimed as a "mistake."  We're now six weeks or more beyond that point and yet not one retraction has been offered nor have the constraints been dropped in full anywhere in the United States.

 

Next, and confirming all of it, it takes five days for cases to become symptomatic and we are now three or more such periods into the "reopening" in Georgia, Tennessee and elsewhere.  There have been NO logarithmic spikes in case counts or hospitalizations in any of these jurisdictions.

NOT ONE.

This further adds to the proof that exactly zero constraints were or are warranted.

As I also pointed out when this began outside of particular at-risk groups this virus was no big thing.  That's not to say it didn't kill people; of course it did and it will continue to.  But death happens to people all the time; we are all mortal.  Absent the intentional seeding of this bug into at-risk populations, which a number of governors did with Executive Orders under the force of law the facts are that this virus causes death at a rate indistinguishable from ordinary statistical noise!

Proof?  Right here, directly from the CDC:

 

That right-side peak for 2019/2020 is Covid-19, we're told.  Or was it?  Were there in fact two previous spikes where claims were made that those were "ordinary" influenza but perhaps were also Covid-laced?  We don't know because there was no test for Covid-19 during those previous two spikes and a decent percentage of people who are tested for Influenza A/B come up negative.  We knew that too all the way back to the end of 2019 and yet exactly zero attention was paid to these facts in "formulating policy."

More to the point did the level of illness and infection ever exceed the levels of the 2017-2018 flu season -- which was all ordinary flu -- or the 2009 swine flu episode, despite predictions that we were about to die at unprecedented rates?

No, it did not.

Folks, even the CDC is now saying this bug is no worse than twice as bad as the normal seasonal flu.  That is, it's roughly as bad as the flu season in 1968-69, or even that of just a couple of years ago -- and that of 2009.  Yeah, it sucks if it gets you, but when you have the people who are putting out the "guidelines" suddenly revising their "death estimates" down by a factor of ten you really ought to be trying to figure out who shouldn't, among those responsible for locking down the economy and destroying millions of businesses permanently along with tens of millions of jobs under what is now admitted to be false pretense, be lined up for an appointment with a noose due to their fear-mongering leading to both direct and indirect causes of death.  The formal, legal word for what they did, I remind you, is Manslaughter.

Finally, the so-called "test-test-test" mantra is a flat-out lie too.  Japan locked down nothing, has tested roughly 700,000 citizens in total across their population of roughly 126 million (in other words, a bit over 0.5% once, not "2% a month"), has cities (especially Tokyo) with far more population density than we have in the US or in Europe, has mass-transit in Tokyo (I've ridden it personally) that make NY and Chicago's systems during rush hour appear entirely empty by comparison and has suffered only 830 deaths despite having one of the oldest demographics in the world.  The difference?  They did not seed the virus into elderly populations through both intentional act and malfeasance as did both Europe and the United States.

As a result in Japan the virus killed..... almost nobody.  Exactly as it would have both in Europe and here had we not both seeded the virus into long term care homes through outrageous malfeasance and, in some states here, formal government mandate.

I'm not going to put up with companies or politicians who tell me that "we're all in this together" when the CDC has now admitted the entirety of the claimed justification for it -- the "projected" death rate -- was crap by a factor of ten.  I pointed that out in February, that on the data that was nearly-certain to be true and have been proved, in the fullness of time, to be right.

Where is my apology and where are the heads of the politicians and so-called "experts" who murdered businesses and jobs by the tens of millions?  When do they pay for the damage they caused on purpose predicated on an outright lie?

You run any of this crap around me and you will lose my business and, in the political sphere, since everyone is to one degree or another in on the scam including Trump who is still claiming that "but for his actions two million Americans would be dead" yet exactly zero of them have been immediately dragged out of his office and into the impeachment dock, being summarily expelled from their respective pilot's seat, I quit.

The CDC now claims that 0.05% of those under 49 who are symptomatic will die.  They are also now claiming that 35% of those who get infected are not symptomatic.  What they're leaving off is that I suspected in February and early March, because it was the only plausible explanation for Diamond Princess and elsewhere, and we now know is true, that significant cross-immunity exists as well.  That confounds all of the data because all the models assume when you start 100% of the population is susceptible.  If that's not true then all of the so-called "modeling" is garbage.

We knew immediately and factually after Diamond Princess that this "first premise" was false, as I noted at the time.

The market and economic impact of the measures taken, particularly on the fiscal and monetary side, however, also must be considered.  I note that the monetary impact of the "authorizations" given to The Fed and Treasury in the bills passed thus far are for as much as 50% or more of a year's GDP.  This is very likely, in fact nearly certain, to lead to a 50% inflation rate over the space of a few years.  It won't be evenly distributed however, which is even worse because it is nearly certain to screw lower and middle-income people especially hard.

I remind you that the 2008/09 "bailouts" led to catastrophic increases in price in certain areas of the economy, specifically in health care and health insurance, continuing a pattern from the 1990s that I predicted in the mid 1990s threatened to destroy the federal budget and the nation's finances somewhere in the mid 2020s -- and which I previously pegged right at 2024.

We have now grossly accelerated that timeline as is evident in Medicare spending over the last two months in combination with a flat-out collapse in federal revenue.

The stock market is reflecting the forward destruction of said purchasing power.  May I remind you that taken in terms of number of hours worked by a median income American it now requires six times as many hours of work to purchase one share of the S&P 500 as it did in the early 1980s?  Forty years, approximately, has devalued your effort .vs. "capital" by a factor of six!

How far does this go before all-on collapse occurs?  How much higher do you think health care spend can go before the markets deduce that the fraud will never stop and they reflect back on the fact that this time, like the last time, we were told about and sold an incipient destruction of everything that was so-severe it literally justified placing nearly the entire free world under house arrest -- and the people went for it without lifting a finger and removing all the fear-mongers from their positions on an immediate and wholesale basis?

The destruction is already starting in commercial Real Estate and the taxes generated from same.  There are a few people who are gleefully rubbing their hands in terms of being able to exploit it and try to make a fortune; don't bet on that working out for the common man.

I will not patronize those who buy into and promote the lies about this virus or the fiscal and monetary response.  The media and big-tech "social media" companies have not only promoted this fraud they've banhammered anyone who dares to speak against it even though on the basic arithmetic it was clear by April 1st it was all a load of bull****.  These firms should all be smoking holes in the ground with their executives, including the CEO and every member of the board, in the dock.

But they're not, and they won't be.

Last time around I pointed out that we were going to pay mightily for the bailouts and handouts.  They got away with it in that Americans refuse to rise and sack the rat bastards responsible and so this time it was even worse -- in addition to fiscal and monetary damage we've now added manslaughter to the tune of tens of thousands of seniors killed like rabid dogs in nursing homes through the intentional acts of governors and mayors, along with suicide rates that in some areas are now running ten times normal.

There are a few people who were right about this virus since the start -- myself included.  Yet I'm literally on media blacklists among the "mainstream" news sources due to calling out all the outright frauds from the last time around, which they all cheered on and celebrated.

Well, so be it.  Those media sources and every government only exist because you put up with it, dear reader.

And since you prefer lies to truth, hype to reason, well....

Enjoy the consequences; you not only asked for them and refused to hold anyone to account you still are.

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2020-05-25 08:45 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 55 references
 

 

Or look at her entire gallery for something else right here!

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We know the lockdowns were bull**** folks.

This isn't speculation; as I pointed out at the end of March every single state that I looked at had its infection rate (not case count, rate of expansion) peak on or before the day the lockdowns were enacted.

Since it takes five to ten days from infection before you are symptomatic enough to go seek treatment this means the lockdown orders could not have caused the curve to collapse because the mitigation was put into place after the event occurred.

That which you do after something happens cannot be the cause of the "something."  Period.

Not reversing all those orders on or around April 1st was flatly unsupported by facts and thus was and remains criminal malfeasance.  There is exactly no state that should not have had their executives dragged out of office on April 1st by the direct action of the overwhelming majority of their citizens, or had their "orders" simply ignored.

It is a fact that even a small single-digit percentage of the citizens of any State in the US (or in the US as a whole) can very-effectively nullify any action of said government should they really mean it, exactly as occurred 250-odd years ago.  The acts of these tyrants have thrown out of work one third or more of the citizens of every State and have threatened to destroy entire regions that are dependent on so-called "non-essential" activity.  Without extraordinary proof, which never existed and we now know was unsupportable on the science there was exactly zero reason for any American to put up with any of it beyond April 1st.

As time has gone on, however we've developed another, far more-disturbing pattern and documented proof of that as well.

Florida loses approximately 200,000 people a year to all-cause mortality.  New York, which has a roughly-comparable population, loses about 150,000.  This is not surprising; Florida's population has an older median age and thus you'd expect more people to die for all manner of ordinary reasons.

New York has had roughly 23,000 covid-19 deaths recorded.  That's 15% of all-cause mortality, a very significant impact and enough to scare the living Hell out of a significant percentage of the population.

Which, I shouldn't need to remind you, it did.

Florida, on the other hand, has had about 2,200 covid-19 deaths.  That's approximately 1.1% of all-cause mortality, a completely-insignificant percentage -- in fact, a rate lost in the ordinary year to year statistical noise of the all-cause rate of death.

Tennessee has had about 300 deaths, and usually has about 70,000 all-cause deaths a year.  That's under 0.5%, again, an utterly-insignificant impact and again lost in the ordinary statistical noise.

Michigan has had ~5,200 Covid-19 deaths; the state's all-cause mortality is right around 99,000.  That's 5.25%, or ten times Tennessee's rate.  Now that is a figure that is quite material.  Maybe not enough to scare the living Hell out of everyone (it's 1/3rd of NY's rate, after all) but it is high enough to scare plenty of people.

Illinois had 4,715 Covid-19 deaths; their all-cause mortality in 2018 was 110,000.  That's 4.29%, or about ten times that of Tennessee and approximately four times that of Florida, which has an older population than Illinois.  Again, quite material.

Do you think viruses are racist?  Do you think they honor red-blue, that is, Democrat:Republican party lines and only kill Democrats?  Do they only kill people in states with Democrat Governors?

Obviously not.

Do you think "aggressive" lockdown measures, which have been more-aggressive in "Blue" states, work?

Obviously not; the more-aggressive lockdowns are producing a death rate five to ten times higher than states that have imposed lesser measures.

Are lockdowns "killing people"?  Probably not from Coronavirus, although that remains to be proved.  But some jurisdictions are reporting more than ten times the normal number of suicide attempts; a year's worth of them, in one example, over four weeks' time. 

That's more than a thousand percent increase.

Might some of the coronavirus difference in death rates be a  product of population density?  Nope.  It would be easy, for example, to look at Chicago .vs. Miami (or Orlando) and conclude that.  But then you have to account for Michigan; Detroit has a population roughly comparable to Miami and yet Michigan has five times the death rate when looked at through lens of all-cause mortality compared with Florida and ten times that of Tennessee, which has Memphis and Nashville, both of which are of comparable size to Detroit and Memphis, like Detroit, is majority-Black in demographic as well.

I remind you that both Tennessee and Florida enacted "Stay At Home" orders and destroyed the lives and businesses of millions in over a disease that killed approximately 1% or less of those killed by all causes within their borders during a given year.  To be blunt for an event that had a nearly-impossible to find rate of change in all-cause death those governors murdered their economies and, almost-certainly, killed more people through cancers, incipient heart attacks and strokes that were not treated than Covid-19 killed, never mind the suicides and addiction produced by the lockdown orders.

These orders were and remain abject frauds in that they were unsupported by evidence of both need and effectiveness, never mind any sort of measurement of the balance of harms and thus are felonious.  It is nearly-certain that when we total up the deaths from all-cause in those states we will find the increase in heart attacks, cancers and strokes, along with suicides, killed more than coronavirus did.

But that pales beside what we've seen happen in the "Blue" states -- which enacted more sweeping constraints and yet have death rates five to more than ten times as high plus the increase in heart attacks, cancers and strokes.

What does all this tell us?

Lots.  Specifically, what precautions (or worse, actual seedingof infection were taken with regard to long-term care homes (e.g. nursing homes) in the various states and what proportion of the deaths in those states occurred among residents in said homes and those being cared for at home by moonlighting employees who spread the disease from medical facilities, including long-term care homes and hospitals?

Never mind Michigan which just arrested a man who beat an elderly man severely.  He (the alleged assailant) was in said long-term care facility despite being coronavirus positive just in the previous few days.

If the entire nation looked like Tennessee or Florida in terms of death rates would anyone be scared?

Nope.

Would there have been cause to close schools, businesses and other activities?

Nope.

Would any of the measures taken be remotely justified?

Nope.

Would the people have likely flatly ignored said orders for a death rate that barely registered on all-cause mortality -- 1% or less -- had that been the national story, yet governors ordered schools and businesses closed?

YES; such an order would have been demonstrably given under obvious false pretense and trivially constitute just cause for an immediate refusal to comply in any and all respects and, if it became necessary, engage in open revolt.

This is now in evidence across the entire 50 States; the data is irrefutable.  Yet, I remind you, the so-called "Red" States have yet to look at this data, note the obvious and outrageous pattern documented therein and then tell all the screaming Karens including Fauci, Birx, the CDC and our President to blow goats and open everything from schools to bars.

In those "Red" states there is zero supporting evidence on the facts when it comes to the actual rate of death to support any constraint whatsoever.  Yet constraints do remain in place, including but not limited to Florida and Tennessee, for death rates that constitute 1% or less of all-cause mortality and which are thus impossible to distinguish from ordinary statistical variation across one year to another.  Indeed when one adds back the missed cancers, strokes, heart attacks and suicides it is a near-certainly that every one of those states will record more death from those intentionally caused sources of mortality than Covid-19.

To destroy the economy over that rate of death and to sustain any such order beyond the point at which said data is in evidence is both criminally insane and a rank violation of everyone's civil rights.

But now, in the fullness of time, the next ugly question must be asked: Does the actual record, three months into this, document a clear pattern evidencing manslaughter by certain political subdivisions of the nation for political purposes including active complicity by "Red" Governors as accessories after the fact since every one of them has maintained constraints within their borders despite knowing that their rate of death is 1/5th to 1/10th of those states that deliberately spread this virus among highly-susceptible populations who in addition are mentally and physically disabled and thus could not act to evade those evil acts nor give informed consent?

It sure looks that way to me and, I remind you, said acts taken under color of law or authority are, under 18 USC 242federal criminal offenses and, since death occurred as a result, said violations are one of the few federal criminal offenses carrying a death penalty upon conviction.

If you sit for this, America, then you must really hate your Grandmothers and Grandfathers in those Blue States, where 80 to 90% of those that died over the last two months in these nursing homes did so as a direct result of the intentional acts of Democrat officials exploiting a virus for political purposes.

All gave some.

Some gave all.

And then we let evil bastards in our midst by the dozens crown themselves Kings and Queens, not only murdering our economy but "justifying" their acts by killing our mothers, fathers,  grandmothers and grandfathers at a rate exceeding that of the Vietnam War, with every one of those victims compromised and unable to consent (and in many cases even understand what was going on) -- and we let them do it without lifting a finger in response.

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2020-05-23 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Product Reviews , 763 references
[Comments enabled]  

Dear Sirs;

Today I stopped at your Pelham AL location to dine in.

I understand the coronavirus concerns. However, you're doing it wrong.

First, I'm very well versed in protocol when it comes to use of PPE, having worked with *very* dangerous reagents and other materials. Cloth masks are worthless, especially if you *touch them with your gloved hands*, which I observed multiple times. Second, gloves are worse than worthless in a viral situation since a virus can only live for minutes on unbroken bare skin, but it lives for *several hours* on a glove, as that is a impermeable surface. Unless RIGOROUS protocol is followed for changing of same after *EACH* potential contamination event cross-contamination risk is MUCH higher using vinyl or latex gloves than bare hands that are frequently washed. Sorry, those are facts, and if you want to prove it to yourself cut some jalapeno peppers with gloves on, take them off, then go use the bathroom and hold your Willie to do so. You'll find out REAL FAST if you followed protocol or not.

In other words your "procedures" and "protocols" as actually practiced *INCREASE* the risk of cross-infection, not mitigate it. They were theater, not effective infection control. Then again I'm not scared of your staff infecting me, so from my point of view all the gloves and masks amount to are ugly costumes.

Why do I want that when I go out to eat and have what are lovely people serving me be despoiled like that?

Second, when I go to a restaurant I expect the server to, well, serve. Which means place the plate or other item in front of me. The "take it from me" thing as they were practicing doesn't fly.

I accept the "capacity limit" rules although they're silly too. But, they are what they are and it's on you to tell the Governors to suck eggs, not me -- after all it's your firm that's being ordered around. You can't survive on that amount of business (never mind not letting anyone sit at the bar and have a beer) and you know it, but that's your problem rather than mine. You and everyone else trying to "abide" this nonsense will fail and close due to the inability to operate profitably; it is simply a matter of time.

The problem with all of the above from a customer point of view is that these "steps" destroy the restaurant experience. I noted that out of the people in the place eating while I was there exactly ZERO customers had on masks. They obviously aren't scared OF YOUR STAFF or OF THE OTHER CUSTOMERS. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know then you better think it through again.

Oh, the little counter up front for staff to have their temperatures taken at the front door and their log sheet was cute too. Again, that doesn't offend me, but it also doesn't really reassure either. Anyone ought to be sane enough not to come to work in a personal-contact situation while actively sick, no matter with what.

I stop at your restaurants preferentially when on the road. But -- I can walk into a Love's and get two dogs off the Roller Grill for $3.33 plus a coffee for a hell of a lot less money, and eat them in my car or truck without taking the hour-long break to stop and patronize your locations. As of a week or so ago their self-serve roller grills were back in business; no more asking someone to dish up the dogs and coffee for you either.

Until you stop with the theater chain-wide and return to being an actual welcoming restaurant, that's exactly what I'm going to do.

I put north of 30,000 miles under my tires a year, and as you can imagine I eat on the road a LOT. You've always been what I search on my phone for within the next hour or two's drive when I start to get hungry. I bet I've had north of 50 meals in your restaurants over the last year, with the largest single count of them at the Pelham location; it just happens to be in a convenient place for many of my trips.

That changed today, and it's up to you if it ever changes back. I won't stop in to check; you'll have to tell me via some other means.

Sincerely;

Karl Denninger

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