More Housing Data From NAHB - Fugly Numbers
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Catching up on my reading and analysis here on a fine Saturday evening.......

Oh yeah, that's right. I said something about numbers.

Try this one on for size.

2.7%

That is the percentage of homes that are sitting empty in the United States.

That is, the oversupply of homes. Not the number of people who would like to sell (but can't), or anything of the kind.

No, this is the number of homes that exceeds the current demand for homes in the US.

By the way, in the 40 years that the Census Bureau has been tracking this number - including the last two big housing busts on the coasts - it has never exceeded 2%.

To put this in a different context, there are 2.1 million empty homes out there. The people who own them are realizing real, tangible economic losses from them each and every day. Not only is the value not appreciating, but they are paying real estate taxes and hazard insurance on an asset that is sitting there literally rotting away.

There is an even nastier number out there however, and as far as I know it has gotten very, very little press.

That number is....

11%

That's the percentage of condos unoccupied (but complete) during the 4th Quarter.

This one I could have predicted - but even I wouldn't have pegged it that high. I would have guessed it was north of 5%, but eleven? Again, these are units that are sitting empty without either an owner or renter living in them. And they're racking up even worse damage to their owner's asset bases, because with a condo its not just the mortgage, insurance and real estate taxes - it is also the monthly assessments which, in many cases, are a couple hundred bucks a month or more!

Now here's another nice, round number - and for this one, I hope you're sitting - not standing - at your computer.

800%

That's the percentage increase of foreclosures in the first three months of the year in California. Oh, the actual number? North of 11,000. Published by? The biggest Real Estate cheerleaders in the land - "Realtor Magazine Online." Quick! Grab the lipstick for the pig; he's gotten loose and is running around!

You want their predictions for "the top"? Four to five times that level. That would be 4,000% up from a year ago.

4000%

Oh, and we all know that builders are in the tank, right? Ever wonder what their attitude might be like right about now? Its not difficult to find, with a bit of digging.

How's this for what D.H. Horton believes?

"As I've said to all our salespeople, if a buyer is warm and has a pulse, we want to put them on paper."

Is that better translated as "we don't give a damn if you end up in foreclosure, just so long as we don't eat the house"? Or maybe "F^$k everyone else, so long as we can figure out how to avoid having our balance sheet implode on us" would be a more accurate - if less polite - translation.

Niiiiice.

Oh, if you need to know why I've been calling the recent market's moves an example of irrational exuberance, DHI's stock was up 1.78% Friday - this, of course, being the day after their CEO made that comment on the firm's conference call.

Here's one for the peanut gallery: "Is it a good idea to short companies that publicly state that they're so desperate for business that they'll do everything they can to sell their products - even if they know the customer can't afford it?"
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