Ok guys, enough is enough with the tin-foil hat stuff.

Let's talk economy for a minute.

First I want to refer you to this document. It is the actual data release from the BLS on the 4th, in which the claim was made that "88,000 net new jobs were created."

I want you to scroll down t0 the second page of that document.

Take very careful note of the employment number and the "not in labor force" number.

-468,000 jobs net-net. "Not in labor force" +611,000. Unemployed +77,000. Civilian labor force -392,000.

Keep reading.

The data is right there in front of your face on that page.

Ok, so we know that the government reported the true number, and it was for a freaking big job loss. Remember that back in the "Tech wreck" data everyone looked at this household survey data - not the "cooked" numbers - for guidance (it looked better back then!)

So let's postulate for a minute that the BLS "black box" is either mistaken or intentionally obscuring the truth about employment.

Remember, the government doesn't count "unemployed" people if they're not actually out looking for work - that is, if they're not drawing unemployment!

Illegal aliens, among others, don't draw unemployment. Neither do the self-employed when their businesses dry up or go bust.

If the household survey is correct, what would we expect to see in the economy?

I postulate that we would expect that initially, when big job losses showed up, we would see an incredible spike in credit card use. Why? Because when you're unemployed that's the first thing you do - you start charging the groceries, because you have to - you don't have a paycheck coming in.

Ok, well, we got that, didn't we?

What does this data tell you?

Non-revolving debt growth starts to drop in late 2006 as the stress begins to build on the consumer. But the shocker is in revolving debt - that is, credit cards. There is usually a big slowdown right after Christmas (and there was this January), but in February we came back up, albiet slower than expected. But in March..... Oi.

A 9.2% gain?

So let's see what the hypothesis is. You lose your job, you don't have a paycheck any more. You start charging everything (because you don't have a paycheck), which works out well up until you hit the hard limit and your card starts getting declined. Now what?

You've seen the commercial that ends with "I'm in debt up to my eyeballs!", right?

How far out does this go before it starts to show up in Retail Sales numbers? Well, we've already had warnings on April numbers from dozens of retailers, including Target and Walmart. Retail numbers are due out soon for last month, and I bet they're below trend - and below expectations. They will probably show a positive number, but will they be strong? I doubt it.

Never mind that the real impact is happening now and will continue, which won't be reported until June and beyond.

The economy is, on balance, doing just fine? How 'ya figure that the economy loses 468,000 jobs in one month and "is doing just fine"? You do realize that at this sort of run rate, annualized, we'd lose something like 5.5 million jobs, yes?

Go plug that into your "Goldilocks" economy and tell me what you think is coming.

Now consider what the equities markets are likely to think about all this in the coming weeks and months.