Distribution Monday? Be Careful On The Long Side!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
The 10 year continues its parabolic (yield) ascent this morning, currently at 5.154%

Stocks have flirted along the flatline up and down a couple tenths of a point. However, a disturbing pattern is developing in the mortgage lending (e.g. CFC) and homebuilder sector - both are absolutely falling out of bed.

While it is dangerous to generalize; we've had these sectors down big while the broader market posts big advances - it is instructive to note that the leading factor for the market now is interest rates, and they continue to tick upward.

In addition on a "view of the chart" perspective we already had one inverted cup with handle form in the indices which led to them going from a net gain on the day to a net loss - a 0.4% move in minutes. A second instance of this appears to be forming now - whether it too leads to another big move down is up in the air at the present time, but the possibility cannot be discounted.

I am trading the short side with the QQQ RU options again this morning, having traded the upside early this AM on what looked like a breakout, and now in on the PUTs long.

I exited my QID position this morning but left the SDS position open, lightening up my exposure a bit. Don't get me wrong - I think we're in for more downside - but the choppy nature of trading this morning made it worthwhile to take a bit of money off the table in the QID, which has poorer liquidity than the SDS does.

More as I see it....
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