I will open with this - those of you who are asshats about this nation, about the United States going after the ****ers who believe that you get to Heaven by killing innocent men, women and children, about our attempts to rid the world of this sort of vermin: You are welcome to renounce your citizenship any time you'd like.

Ok, enough politics.

ICSC Chain Store Sales came in up 0.3%, Redbook up 1.1%. No big shocker there. Back to school in there big, which actually is quite negative, as it was "shifted" which means it should have been stronger. The market didn't seem to think much of it one way or another however; I don't think its a big mover either.

The economic impact (that be the "R" word again) will show up in the next few weeks and months; it takes time for ripplethrough to show up in the economic numbers.

And this, by the way, is something that a lot of folks who are on the "bearish" side need to remember - along with the Bulls: Recessions can only be called in retrospect, not prospectively, and both GDP and economic results are measured in the rear view mirror.

Trade Deficit came in inline, $59.25 billion ($59.2 was expected)

Oh, and then Ben speaks in Germany, and his "prepared speech comments" say that global interest rates need to and will go higher.

Heh Mr. Equity Market who thinks that rate cuts will save your bacon -

YOUR ROOF IS ON FIRE!

So what was this rally about this morning?

Well, let me put it this way:

• The FX markets have an IQ of about 130
• The Credit Markets have an IQ of about 100
• The Equity Markets ride the short bus, and on a good day have an IQ of about 70.

Really.

You have to be amazed at people buying into this bull****. There's nothing - and I do mean nothing - that came out today that suggests that "all is ok." We had two more hedge funds lock down redemptions ("Jolly Roger"?! Boy, that one was well-named!), the Commercial Paper market has thrown out all of the fraudsters who stuffed their conduits with derivatives (as well they should), and there's still no market for liar loans (as there never should have been) in the mortgage space.

Oil. OIL! We're talking about pushing that 8-handle. Closed over $78. Yeah. Oh, Ben wants to cut rates and send the dollar down FURTHER eh? $150/bbl oil anyone?

****ryslide is looking for yet more money. Apparently $2 billion wasn't enough. Told 'ya so. I believe this will kick off repricing of the former $2b deal, which will turn that preferred offering into "death spiral" financing, which will ultimately lead to the destruction of common stockholder equity.

This is so familiar a pattern; it happened to dozens of firms in the "tech wreck."

Yet hope springs eternal, and the "buy the dips" mentality is alive and well. For now.

"U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days on speculation consumers will weather an economic slowdown and spur profit growth."

Be careful becoming a part of it kids. Credit Crunches don't go away in a week or a month, they don't leave quietly, and they don't leave equities unscathed. Further, we have almost certainly topped in the profit growth cycle, which couldn't have come at a worse time.....

Recessions aren't kind to equities either, and we're going to get one. A nasty one.