Wailing Wednesday
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2007-09-19 08:07
by Karl Denninger
 
Wailing shorts?

No.

Wailing for our nation.

Bernanke proved one thing yesterday. The Credit Junkie can wail and whine as he withdraws and Sir Fed will stick a needle in and inject more Heroin.

Unfortunately, Sir Fed will do it until The Junkie overdoses and dies. And like all junkies, as tolerance rises to the drug of choice you need more and more to keep the high going, and as the body load rises you get closer and closer to "coffin corner" - where you either withdraw or die, as the rest of your body systems simply cannot tolerate any more drugs.

Most unfortunately The Dollar will be sacrificed. Folks, we are likely headed to 40 on the Dollar. Not immediately, but with a high degree of certainty. I expect we will see 70 within 12 months, which is a 12.5% debasement of your real purchasing power.

Oh, and if you think you're going to see lower real interest rates on your mortgage? The Bond Market says you're not. The curve steepened and is rising on the long end, and that is where your mortgage rates are set.

So, as I predicted, not only will your Latte at Starbucks go up in price, but so will your Mortgage payment. We could have gotten reamed once but thanks to Ben Bernanke, we will now get assraped twice, and the Vasoline is all sold out.

It gets worse - The Saudis just told us to **** off!
"Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East."
Congratulations Ben - you really ****ed up and now not only is the inflation monster coming out of the closet but the dollar flight monster is growling too!

Oh - and "I told you so you ****ING IDIOT!"

Of course Ben tries to throw people who have a brain a bone. Check this one out:
"Bernake in the letter opposed any increase in the portfolio limit. 'Both the size and composition of the portfolios should be tied to reforms that both reduce the systemic risks posed by the portfolios and also clarify the public purpose,' Bernanke said"
Yeah, ok. I believe you. Not.

CPI came in down 0.1%, core 0.2% up. No surprises there given the PPI number yesterday. Core y/o/y 2.1%. The problem isn't in this month's numbers, although you got a big outlier from energy price decreases (which, given what oil has done in the last bit here, is likely to be a real problem in coming months) but rather in what is to come.

Permits down 5.9% for August on housing, more than forecast. No light at the end of this tunnel, and there won't be either. Why? See the "I told you so" above - real interest rates are going up, not down.
"Construction of single-family homes plunged 7.1 percent to a 988,000 rate, the fewest since March 1993, today's report showed. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, jumped 13 percent to an annual rate of 343,000."
Yep.

Think this rate cut is a good thing? Toll Brothers doesn't think so:

""I would have done a quarter instead of a half because it signals we're in deep doodoo," Robert Toll said, speaking at the Credit Suisse Homebuilder Conference."

No ****?

Here's our technicals for today.. lots of meat on this bone...



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