Posted 2007-10-18 08:29
by Karl Denninger
by Karl Denninger
Wow.
BAC Misses, Pfizer misses, CFC has the SEC after them, the dollar goes to **** overnight, jobless claims 337,000, up 28,000 - that's a NASTY on the jobless number - the entire yield curve goes to **** on flight to quality (down across the board - big), both the Yen and Euro spike.
Oh, and Oil within spitting distance of NINETY DOLLARS!
Of course the Fed Futures expect more rate cuts - 75% chance according to the futures.
So heh, bad news is back to being bad news!
Sell sell sell?
All eyes go to The Googster yes?
The Philly fed index came in down significantly with material inflation pressures shown as well. LEIs, on the other hand, came in a bit stronger than expected. But the prices-paid component in the Philly index is not a good thing.
At all.
The market's trading today was quite muted - a big surprise to me - but in the afternoon the "wishes and dreams" buyers came out in force - despite the BoA miss and the Philly Fed Index, neither of which supported a strong economic picture, and rising unemployment claims.
What does this data support? Rate cuts - into a recession!
Remember kids, the thesis here is that 3Q profits are a wipe but 4Q will run over 10%.
And - this was what we were promised for 3Q last quarter, when estimates were relentlessly ratcheted down and came in well under that magic 10% mark.
How many times will equity buyers be lied to before they wake up?
I still see folks on the short bus!
Oh, we got another Hindenburg. Three in a row - that's impressive - if you're fixing to (or are) short.
Oh, and let's not forget - every time we've seen that sort of spike in the bills lately? Bad news has shown up a couple of days later - usually catastrophically bad, and 200+ points "magically" disappear off the DOW.
How come? Because there are always leaks, you know. People don't play straight, fair, or even legal. So they bail before you, Sir Retail, and guess who gets to hold the bag?
Yep.
What else? Well, not much going on really. Other than another (this will make two!) - and this one a bigger - SIeVe going down in flames! (Heh, is that where the Bill traffic came from?)
And in honor of that.....
How long before the equity markets "get it"?
Well, I wouldn't look at the ABX if I were you...
Google - $3.38/share according to the flash that I got, but CNBull**** printed $3.91. Fluff/noise in the number? Hmmm..... looks that way. The instant reaction from the market was down significantly - over $10 - from the close - but then it came back to down about $5. Sandisk got a pop. COF missed both ways but didn't get murdered - surprising.
Update: Sandisk's conference call failed to impress and they were taken to the woodshed. COF bled off their early gains. AMD and the Googster managed to keep a bit - but not a big run.
We shall see what tomorrow brings....
Here's your technical!
BAC Misses, Pfizer misses, CFC has the SEC after them, the dollar goes to **** overnight, jobless claims 337,000, up 28,000 - that's a NASTY on the jobless number - the entire yield curve goes to **** on flight to quality (down across the board - big), both the Yen and Euro spike.
Oh, and Oil within spitting distance of NINETY DOLLARS!
Of course the Fed Futures expect more rate cuts - 75% chance according to the futures.
So heh, bad news is back to being bad news!
Sell sell sell?
All eyes go to The Googster yes?
The Philly fed index came in down significantly with material inflation pressures shown as well. LEIs, on the other hand, came in a bit stronger than expected. But the prices-paid component in the Philly index is not a good thing.
At all.
The market's trading today was quite muted - a big surprise to me - but in the afternoon the "wishes and dreams" buyers came out in force - despite the BoA miss and the Philly Fed Index, neither of which supported a strong economic picture, and rising unemployment claims.
What does this data support? Rate cuts - into a recession!
Remember kids, the thesis here is that 3Q profits are a wipe but 4Q will run over 10%.
And - this was what we were promised for 3Q last quarter, when estimates were relentlessly ratcheted down and came in well under that magic 10% mark.
How many times will equity buyers be lied to before they wake up?
I still see folks on the short bus!
Oh, we got another Hindenburg. Three in a row - that's impressive - if you're fixing to (or are) short.
Oh, and let's not forget - every time we've seen that sort of spike in the bills lately? Bad news has shown up a couple of days later - usually catastrophically bad, and 200+ points "magically" disappear off the DOW.
How come? Because there are always leaks, you know. People don't play straight, fair, or even legal. So they bail before you, Sir Retail, and guess who gets to hold the bag?
Yep.
What else? Well, not much going on really. Other than another (this will make two!) - and this one a bigger - SIeVe going down in flames! (Heh, is that where the Bill traffic came from?)
"Rhinebridge Plc, a structured investment vehicle run by IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said it may not be able to pay back debt related to $23 billion in commercial paper programs."Ah, the sweet smell of truth.
And in honor of that.....
How long before the equity markets "get it"?
Well, I wouldn't look at the ABX if I were you...
Google - $3.38/share according to the flash that I got, but CNBull**** printed $3.91. Fluff/noise in the number? Hmmm..... looks that way. The instant reaction from the market was down significantly - over $10 - from the close - but then it came back to down about $5. Sandisk got a pop. COF missed both ways but didn't get murdered - surprising.
Update: Sandisk's conference call failed to impress and they were taken to the woodshed. COF bled off their early gains. AMD and the Googster managed to keep a bit - but not a big run.
We shall see what tomorrow brings....
Here's your technical!
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