Truth is intruding, not that the pump monkeys seem to care.

The S&P Case/Schiller Home Index shows that home prices fell 4.5% in the third quarter of this year on a national basis. This is the largest decline in home prices in the history of the index, and the first meaningful sequential set of declines since the Depression.

ICSC Chain Store Sales came in down 0.1% for last week. Yes, you read that right - chain store sales actually declined in the week that included "Black Friday." While Thursday had stores closed for the holiday (and these numbers are not adjusted for that) this is a horrible print for what is supposed to be the busiest three shopping days of the year.

Redbook came in +0.4%, again, for a week including "Black Friday". Expected was 0.3%. Yuck.

"ShopperTrak" claimed huge growth in sales Saturday. Yeah, right. Sorry, counting feet is stupid when it comes to retail - you have to count shopping bags and what is in them!

ICSC says that Santa is bringing coal this Grinchmas and my Wall Street Journal is safe from human consumption.

Citibank gets roughly $8 billion in an equity infusion from the Arabs. But it is a convertible preferred offering, although they structured it in a way to not say that (calling it a sale of "unit investment trusts" instead) and was made at a Guido-style interest rate of 11%. While there are allegedly anti-hedging provisions in the deal, anyone who actually believes that the folks over in Dubai don't have an affiliate that they can hedge through has rocks in their head. Some or all of that risk will almost certainly be hedged off immediately, and that coupon is insanely lucrative - for Dubai. Oh, if you just want to look at this as a discounted stock purchase (that is, roll the coupon into the stock price) it marks Citibank's stock in the low to mid $20s. That's nice if you're a current shareholder, no?

When you have to pay a higher interest rate than some of us have available on our credit cards, something serious is going on in your company and it ain't good!

Consumer confidence came in down at 87.3, which is SEVERELY DOWN AGAINST CONSENSUS of 91.0, and drastically down from the previous survey. Expectations came in at 68.7! There's nothing good in these numbers!

CNBC of course tried to put a nice spin on it, but let's be real here - a 68.7 reading on expectations SUCKS!

What sucks WORSE is the inflation EXPECTATION number. Leading expectations for inflation came in at 5.7%, up from last month's 5.1%. Remember, Ben's fear is that inflation EXPECTATIONS get out of control and start to affect consumer (and wage-earner) behavior. While I think he's totally full of **** in focusing on what people THINK instead of the truth (thinking follows truth, ya know) an expectation of nearly 6% inflation on a 12 month leading basis, up sharply month-over-month, has to be making what little hair Ben has stand straight up!

That number is nearly THREE TIMES the Fed's target!

Oh, and for the people who thought OFHEO would "ride to the rescue" and allow Fannie and Freddie to buy jumbos over $417k, nope. Today the announcement showed up that OFHEO is leaving the conforming limit at $417k for 2008. To which I say - DUH! House prices are coming DOWN, not going up - if anything the conforming limit should FALL, not rise.

Never mind the following Fed numbers from this morning:

Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 0. Previous: -5.
Nov Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index: -3.5%. Previous: 10.6.
Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index: -0.6%. Previous: -0.1%.

-3.5%, 0 and -0.6% eh? Hmmmm..... those are expansionary numbers, right? (This is a short-bus rider question, if you can't tell)

The equity markets continue to trade as if this is going to be "no big deal."

Equity investors are wrong, and will be proven once again to be the retards of the investing world.

If I had a dollar for every claim of "this time its different" I wouldn't be writing Tickers; I'd own Tattoosh and would be sitting on it with my dive gear somewhere in the South Pacific, with a gaggle of 20-something models (in their birthday suits, of course) bringing me drinks!

Guys, these are recession prints. We're down 10% from the highs, and the recession average losses in equity indices are 30%. AVERAGE.

But this recession will be far worse than an "average" one, simply because we have overextended the credit side by far more than is average.

As this unwinds - and it WILL unwind - the damage will multiply and snowball.

This is inevitable.

We are, as I pointed out last night, now arguing over which orifice is being targeted, not whether the assault will take place.

Here's the technical......