No Crash For You Today!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2008-01-16 16:51
by Karl Denninger
 
Amusing open.

Jp Morgan/Chase comes out with a miss, but not horrible numbers.

Wells says things aren't awful, and they get a nice pop. Yeah, ok, I'll believe that when I see it - my money is on yet more hiding of problems.

CPI didn't move the needle much.

Then Buy Stops showed up just in time to "sticksave" the market.

For today.

But the selloff into the close was pretty vicious, erasing a big upward move and leaving us with a 150 point swing on the day, finishing down 35 on the Dow.

So where are we?

About where we were two days ago, when all is said and done.

But - we've taken out even more of the buy-stops.

Bounce? Sure, there will be a good-sized one. In fact, if we tank in the morning tomorrow - and we well might, given the exposure of the various reporting companies in the morning (financials), I'm going to be inclined to stand back and wait for it, as I expect that Friday will be "the day" for the initiation of a nice-size bounce.

There is, however, one major problem with that thesis - if we have started a major move downward, we'd need to really tank the next day or two to complete it; it sure ain't done here.

Arguing for the bounce is the Russell, which is forming a bearish flag - a pattern that can run for a week or two before it breaks (lower). Arguing for serious tankage the next few days are the Nasdaq and S&P.

Hmmmm...... divergences. Lots of fun.

Tomorrow morning we get unemployment data, which, if bad, is likely to be a significant market mover. The headline risk on this one is all to the downside - if the numbers are good it doesn't change anything for anyone, really, as it doesn't imply anything about rates or the market.

But a bad number increases the belief in recession.....

Here's your technical!
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