Flynn And Reality
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-12-01 15:46 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 416 references Ignore this thread
Flynn And Reality
[Comments enabled]  

This is a lot worse than the Trumpers are letting on.

First, let's dispel the complete and utter crap that's flying around: Mueller can't indict Trump.

That was pretty-well hashed out during Nixon's Presidency; even after it was known that he was involved in the Watergate Burglary at a level that could have led to an accessory charge he still wasn't indictable.  Nor was he indictable for obstruction either when he destroyed the tapes.

But, in this case, that's not the end of the issue.  Mueller can indict anyone who conspired with Flynn, who he just gave a "no felony time" free pass card to, other than Trump.  I would not be shocked at all if there's a wink-wink nod-nod that with cooperation that won't even be recorded as a felony conviction either.

No prosecutor does that unless he thinks he can get more and better.  Therefore Mueller does and the target isn't Trump since he can't indict him and he knows it.

That's bad, not good, because the likely target is one of Trump's closest and the highest-probability targets include either one of his kids or their spouse (e.g. Kushner.)

I remind you that a conspiracy charge only requires some sort of act of involvement and a predicate act to complete a felony, which Flynn just admitted to.  So the predicate act is there, now we only need the involvement of another person that in some way furthers the offense.  That's a damned-broad brush he's got there and it's before we get to a potential obstruction charge.

That's where the risk is -- along with whether Trump would immediately pardon any of those people if Mueller indicts them.

This much I'm sure of: Trump's prediction that this thing will over by the end of the year, given that Mueller just gave Flynn a "get out of jail free" card, appears to me to have a probability of zero.

PS: Twitter is all ablaze with the Trumper horse**** about ABC's retraction being dispositive -- that the contact was after the election (but prior to inauguration.)  Nope.  The Logan Act, constitutionally infirm or not (it has not been struck) still applies until inauguration day if there was a policy-setting or interfering component to the conversations.  Does the ABC "retraction" change the corner case potentials?  Absolutely, but none of the above that I wrote earlier was predicated on a belief that corner case occurred, which if you've read anything I've written on this since before the election you know has been my position -- that is, I have never believed there was a quid-pro-quo for Russian election interference within the Trump campaign.  The issue is, and remains that obstruction (of which "lying to the FBI" is a lesser-included if you want to get down to brass tacks) is usually what fells politicians and to the extent that an attempt was made to obstruct the investigation it remains a problem -- potentially an impeachable one for Trump and an indictable one for those close to him.

View with responses (opens new window)
 
Main Navigation
MUST-READ Selection:
Our Nation DESERVES To Fail

Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.