The unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (+39,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs over the month, while employment fell in retail trade. Employment in most major industries changed little in November.
Told you so.
Here's the table:
Incidentally, that's over 100,000 below the estimate and the market took it on the chin, dropping 10 handles on the SPX instantly. It'll be interesting to see what happens once trade begins - you can bet this will generate plenty of noise about "QE2" and such. Gold looked like someone goosed it and the dollar slid well under 80 once again.
(Incidentally, someone needs to explain to these clowns that a dollar collapse that comes with a stock market collapse at the same time is a situation the monetary authorities cannot arrest with more "money printing", as that will simply tighten the spiral. I have warned of this risk for more than a year - God help us if it becomes realized.)
Those who follow me know that I pay almost no attention to the "headline" numbers in the report though. Why? Because they're full of hopium and BS. Instead, I look to the household survey, which is an actual count. What do we find there this month?
In a word: NASTY.
185,000 people were added to the working-age population (238530 to 238715). But the employed number actually fell by 334,000 people (139749 to 139415), which means that on an employed rate basis over 500,000 jobs were lost.
The claimed "improvement" was all adjustments - to the tune of 360,000 alleged jobs that households reported didn't exist!
As you can see on the annualized basis the employment trends data has now turned downward again. That's awful - if you remember last month I was cautious on the situation and said this:
After a period of legitimate improvement starting at the beginning of the year this indication has now turned downward again. This is an extremely dangerous development, as it will preclude any meaningful improvement in the federal deficit, and goes exactly to what I've been saying about "QE" and other similar things - they're effectively taxes, and drive people from the workforce.
The market disagreed with me at the time (obviously) but now we got a little "Come to Jesus" happening on that point.
What's worse, the employment rate is now threatening the lows:
That's the important number as it comprises the tax base.
Our government has squandered the opportunity to do the right thing by forcing the bad debts into the open and closing the institutions responsible. Instead they have chosen to lard up more than $4 trillion in additional debt on the Federal Balance sheet on the backs of the American People with the claim that we can and will "grow out of it."
No we can't, no we're not, and this BS dog and pony show crap along with the embedded lies in corporate and bank balance sheets must stop as the employment base has failed to turn around.
We're playing Japan but do not have the buffering to do it and we no longer have the margin to add more debt in order to try to "stimulate" our way out.
That path was taken and now we know for a fact it has failed.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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