No fancy alliterations today.
This morning I woke to find that gold had retreated a bit as had oil, but both were sitting near "nosebleed" territory.
The dollar, which was pummelled overnight, had also retreated from the brink a bit.
The equity markets - indeed, all the markets - are acting like a junkie pounding on the door of the drug dealer and demanding another fix. That fix, of course, is more rate cuts - and not just one either.
One now, one in December, more more more. The "consensus" of market watchers is that "the market" needs - natch - demands - a FFR of 3.5%
or less by early next year.
More than 100 bips down
from here!Have you noticed the instability in equities lately? Huge moves on silly rumors? You think? Why? Because the markets are now acting just like that jacked-up junkie, and therein lies the problem.
As a junkie goes from the first stages of dependence on drugs to death, the drug becomes less effective. What required one "dose" of heroin soon requires two, then four, then eight to get the same effect. The "buzz" doesn't come if you don't feed the veins with ever-more of the drug.
Drug addicts are known to have a "self-titrating" function that gets quickly wired into the brain. That is, they have a desired "high" that they wish to reach, and they will increase the dose of whatever their favorite drug is as tolerance builds to maintain the same "buzz".
Yet somewhere out there lurks systemic toxicity. See, the body can only process so much drug. At some point you reach a critical point and essential functions - heartbeat, brain function, breathing - get interfered with to the point that they shut down. And as you use drugs for a longer period of time, that corner lurks ever closer, as your body's systems are damaged and thus their ability to handle "shocks" of the drug decreases.
As this "coffin corner" approaches the junkie has only two choices - detox or die.
Many junkies fail to realize this in time, take one too many shots, and expire.
Thus it will be with the markets. Gold. Oil, to a lesser extent. The Credit Markets. Equities. And not just here in the United States; China, India, Japan.
Yet nobody on CNBull****, other than Rick Santelli, are telling the truth. All of the CNBull**** crew look like they're having an orgasm every time the DOW prints green - or is that, instead, the hop-up of someone mainlining cocaine?
How long before the response is a heart attack instead of a buzz?
Adding to the "mainline" rush is the Yen carry trade. Like a bunch of schizoid idiots the Yen/Dlr cross bounces these days in lockstep with the S&P - in fact, you pretty much don't need to watch the S&P during the trading day - just watch the Yen/Dlr cross and you've got your S&P chart. That's pathological - yet it is exactly what has been going on now
for more than two months.As if that all is not enough, we have CountrySlide (CFC) as our prime example from Friday. Announcing a loss twice what the street expected, the stock took off on a rocket ride of more than 30% - higher. Huh? The company put on a brave face claiming they had seen "the trough" and that they'd make money next quarter.
Does anyone remember that last quarter they said the same thing? That while they were missing expectations, 3Q would be better and they'd make more? DID THEY? No, they instead reported a horrendous loss!But crack junkies have short memories, their brains being addled by drugs. So instead of remembering that last quarter Mozillo and Sanbol promised profits and prosperity, and instead delivered losses and ruin, they hit the buy - instead of the sell - button.
Anecdotes are that The Fed is concerned about the markets being "unstable".
Well, Ben, wake the **** up, ok?
THE FED IS CONCERNED ABOUT THAT WHICH THEY CREATED OUT OF WHOLE CLOTH? If so, why don't you DO SOMETHING Ben? Like, oh, you know, come out and say - in public - "no more drugs!"I am simply amazed that anyone would be "shocked" at the results of their own actions, when they were (and are) so utterly predictable. Poole claims he's "puzzled" by the action of the DX? I'm not - in fact, did I not predict
before the cutting began that the currency markets were
warning The Fed not to cut rates by its reaction after the "August Surprise"? Indeed I did. Since I'm nowhere near arrogant enough to believe I'm "the smartest guy in the room" others - including those claimed PhDs at The Fed - had to see this too, no?
If you want to see how markets behave that can't be shorted, go see China. Well, what do you think you tried to do when you cut the discount rate while the index option guys were "pinned" and unable to hedge their exposure?
Feeding a junkie more dope? What do you think you did when you cut rates by 50 bips on the back of a bad job print - one which you admit you didn't believe!
What do you call granting every bank in the land who asks an exemption to the last vestige of banking regulations intended to prevent systemic damage, not to mention tacitly approving a plan to hide
even more off balance sheet -
instead of doing your job as a bank regulator and demanding that these institutions fully disclose and consolidate their SIVs and such before you give them any forbearance?We have evidence that certain "favored sons" were tipped off to the discount rate cut ahead of time, yet nobody cares. The FedFunds cut in September?
The futures moved before the release, suggesting that someone was told ahead of time of that move too.And then The Fed "worries" about an unstable financial market?
THIS, AFTER THEY CAUSE THE INSTABILITY BY ENABLING LYING, CHEATING, AND PERHAPS EVEN OUTRIGHT FRAUD?Why do I get the image of a "fireman" who is the very arsonist that the fire department is trying to hunt down?
Now if rate cuts would actually save the economy from recession I would support them. But they will not.
The problem in the markets and economy is not general softness - a natural business cycle playing out, and one that can be ameliorated to some extent with interest rate cuts.
It is fraud, avarice, speculative excess and cheating.
It is off-balance-sheet vehicles that are stuffed with tens or even hundreds of billions of now-worthless paper that is "marked" at 90, 95, even 100 cents on the dollar. None of it is worth wiping **** off your *******, but its all priced as if it were pure sovereign debt.
It is false ratings, models that intentionally made up data not in evidence (e.g. "liar loans"), appraisal shopping and more.
It is speculative froth based on the cock and bull story that we can make something out of nothing; that we can take ****, spread it on bread, and sell it as a sandwich, duping people into believing it is ham and cheese so they'll pay good money for it.
Much of this - including the inflated appraisal pressure - was complained about
as early as 2001! In fact there is a signed petition from
hundreds, if not thousands, of property appraisers that was sent to Congress before the bubble really got going! Was anything done about it, even though this conduct - influencing appraisals - is
explicitly illegal?
Nope.
There's no future in a path of incessant theft, deception and fraud - only ruin for the American economy.
Debasing the currency instead of rooting out fraud and forcing crap into the clear where it can be seen kills everyone who buys fuel or food, and of course we all do, even though the "official inflation statistics" ignore such things.
Worse, it encourages even more fraud. The token prosecutions such as going after Martha Stewart are how we keep "the masses" from rioting in the streets. Would Goldman ever be subpoenaed, say much less indicted, over such a thing?
What do you think?
The cheap blue jeans and computers, made with sweatshop child labor in China are nice but they don't make up for the pain you take as a consumer - you can't eat your pants - or monitor.
Never mind the humanitarian factors.
We've all been turned into debt zombies by a consumerism-driven view that so long as your credit card has more room its all ok - and if it doesn't, just go steal your home's equity and spend
that.
Never mind that the truth is that our government has done the same thing with our Social Security system's funds - spent 'em - and so the only possible redemption you had as an individual was to use your home - paid for with a clear deed - as your retirement income. But we've all spent that now, haven't we?
What happens when we're 65 and find out that Social inSecurity has no money? Benefits are cut, our 401ks and IRAs are taxed (despite promises not to), and home equity is gone?
Now what?
You keep working - until you die or are unable, at which point you have the ignobility of being shoved into a Medicare nursing home, where you can pound on the "call" button for hours before someone comes to find out that you*****ed yourself.
Farfetched?
No.
In fact, quite likely.
All because the junkie needs another fix.
Because we, as a people, won't get off our fat asses and put a stop to this ****. Because we, instead of doing the right thing, mainlined our house!
There is absolutely no doubt that the "American Dream" is going to play out like this.
"We The People" have insured it.
The edge has been reached and exceeded.
We, collectively, have refused to call for the problems to be addressed and reversed. We have decided to vote for people who promise bread and circuses, when in fact they have no bread and the circus elephant has long since expired and rotted away. CNBull**** cheers
the commission of a felony on national television because it produces a big stock-market rally.
We refuse to stop being pigs.
We're going to pay for that foolishness, and soon.
1,287 signatures on the petition.
That's all. Just 20 over the weekend since I told the system to send the last batch Friday around the noon hour.
While a
very few of you who read this blog have signed,
most have not.
And on balance, none of you have managed to get 10 of your friends to sign.
That's a fact guys and dolls. The numbers don't lie!
When - not if - the wheels come off - and it will be soon - I don't want to hear the crying, bitching, moaning and whining. I will not feed the hungry; I have given people the ability to catch fish, but they do not wish to pick up the rod, attach some bait, and stick it in the water, along with passing on the knowledge to others so they can fish too.
They want fish handed to them instead.
My answer to that request is simple -
NO.In 2005 (
look at my other blog) I opined on the coming financial crash in America, driven by the wild-eyed Baby Boomer demands for ever more when we simply do not have the ability to pay. None of that is a surprise. What is somewhat of a surprise is that we ran into this wall first, although, in hindsight, I should have seen it coming.
This is what we face guys and gals,
THEN we will get what I prognosticated in the above post in my other blog:
- Your house is going to go down in value by 30-50%. If you bought it after 2003, you will be underwater for certain. If you have more out in mortgage(s) and HELOC(s) than its 2003 value, you will be paying for an asset that is worth less than you owe. That's a fact. If you are forced to move in that situation, you will be rendered bankrupt. Congratulations.
- The stock market will collapse. The S&P will see 800 again. Believe it. It will come. Perhaps not tomorrow, but it will happen. It is inevitable. It could be far worse. We could see 500 on the S&P 500. If you don't get a crash, it will only be because your money will be worthless; a 1500 S&P with a 50% devaluation of your purchasing power is the same as a 750 S&P - and buys just as much. That's the game being run. It won't work - we'll get a devalued currency and a market crash - the worst of all worlds.
- We will get a deep, long recession. Believe it. It is coming. I know you don't want to hear it, but its true. It is inevitable. It could have been a deep, sharp but short recession, but Bernanke and the Federal Government will not make the right choices and you, collectively, have not put any material amount of pressure on them to do the right thing. Count on that. As a result, the next decade is going to suck.
- Foreigners will not come in and save our markets and assets. There are other parts of the world that haven't mortgaged their futures. Oh sure, China and India have problems - big ones - in their own asset bubbles. But they, along with the Japanese, at least save some of their incomes. They've got the base to build from. We do not. The "hot money" will go where it can earn a return and where there's something to build ON. That's not the United States any more. All we have are 6,000 nuclear weapons.
- Inflation will ramp. Severely. Our cheap Chinese goods days are over. You will be paying twice what you have for those "cheap imported items." Not tomorrow, but in the next couple of years. At the same time, you will also be paying $5/gallon for gasoline and double what you pay now for heating and air conditioning, and your food costs will double. Again (they've already doubled once over the last five years - both food and energy.)
- For the first time in modern history your children will have a lower standard of living than you have enjoyed. Materially so. In fact, it won't even be close. Your children's futures are ****ed. Do you teach your children to be good little consumers? You pamper their every whim? Buy 'em $50 designer jeans? $100+ "Air Jordans"? $200 MP3 players? $500 iPhones? You - or your parents if they're boomers and you're younger - have insured their pain, both through your own actions and what you've taught them. The boomers are pigs; I know as my parents, who do not "need" the social "safety nets", nonetheless scream like stuck pigs that they're "entitled" to them. Proof? Medicare Part D. 'Nuff said. Bottom line - the Boomers don't care if they **** their grandkids, so long as they "get theirs." That's the majority view. Welcome to America, land of the bought vote and the consumer pig. Woe be to your kids when the credit card limit is hit.
I will continue to comment on the markets from time to time. Right here. When I feel like it, and have time.
The daily writeups?
No more.
Maybe a technical every day or three. If I feel like it.
For now the forum stays.
For two hours+ of my time a day on The Ticker and videos, I asked for little - just that those of you who read this, and find it of value, put in the time and effort to "make me broke" with all the faxes I had to send to lawmakers.
An act that, if it is ever accomplished, will actually solve the problem.
I know it will work because I've done it before. It works. Been there, done that, have the T-shirt and know that its effective. And in any event - even if I'm totally full of crap about effectiveness - what am I asking for here? 60 seconds of your time?
There are those who have said I have no "right" to ask for such a thing. Ok, fair enough. But nobody else has a right to ask, say much less demand, that I provide this service. I don't charge for it, I in fact ask nothing.
Don't ask about a subscription newsletter. There won't be one. The "fee" for the last six months was one minute of your time. I'm not doing this for money; I'm doing this to try to solve a problem. Yours. Mine. My daughter's. Your son's. Personal profit from subscriptions never was and never will be the goal.
Either you are Citizens of this Republic or you are leaches. Being a leach has become institutionalized, inbred and popular. It is taught to you as a kid from your first day in Government School when your pencils and paper were confiscated by the teacher and put into a pile, to be doled out for "less fortunate."
I'm not providing any more free blood to be sucked, and I can't be paid to feed leaches.
You had your fix of morphine, now show me why there should be more forthcoming.
1,287 signatures.
Pathetic.
Over 31,000 unique people read The Ticker every month.
Out of that, only 4% of you could be bothered to take 60 seconds out of your day and click your mouse - in two weeks time.
http://financialpetition.org/
Facts are what they are.
Until I see commitment from those who have taken for six months - commitment to do something other than take, day after day - I am backing off.
60 seconds, it would appear, was too much to ask.
Enjoy the next few days or weeks in the markets kids.
Please, go long. All of you.
Its the "one true CNBC way." It may even pay off. For a while.
I know what's coming, and I'm going to watch with bemusement, just as I did in '99 and 2000.
What I won't do is provide analysis and commentary - at enormous cost in my personal time - to more than 30,000 who clearly think its worth reading, when only 4% of them will lift a finger to protect their children's future - and their own.
No technical tonight, or tomorrow - you're on your own going into The Fed meeting.
I wish you the best of luck.
I'm going diving.