Misleading Headline Of The Day
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2013-01-21 13:11
by Karl Denninger
in Health Reform
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Misleading Headline Of The Day
 

I stared at this yesterday when it first hit my screen in disbelief.  They actually ran this crap?

While the most sweeping provisions of the health care overhaul have not yet gone into effect, plenty of Americans will still be paying higher insurance premiums this year -- as insurance companies try to preemptively cover the cost of a tax increase included in President Obama's Affordable Care Act.

That tax doesn't take effect until next year, when other major provisions like the so-called "individual mandate" and insurance subsidies also kick in. But that hasn't stopped insurance companies from charging higher premiums this year to cover the hike, as well as the cost of ObamaCare benefits such as free birth control and preventive care.

Premiums for individuals and small businesses are projected to increase due to the tax by roughly 2 percent this year and by as much as 3.7 percent in 2023, according to a widely cited analysis by the insurance industry.

2% and 3.7% eh?

Bah.

I have multiple reports of individual and small-group plan price hikes of 50, 60, 70, even 100% coming down this year and next.  Against that 2 or 3.7% is going to sound like a Girl Scout picnic.

The problem is that the "must-issue" and "community rating" provisions in the law are just more cost-shifting and promise to make everyone pay more, because they force everyone to buy -- including those who otherwise would not.  Since there is no restraint on the services one consumes enforced by the size of your wallet there is no price feedback mechanism on the medical industry.

Couple that with the medical industry's penchant to force the 330 million Americans to pay for the development of basically everything (because most of the rest of the world steals it, either directly or by threat and thus gets the technologies for reproduction cost) and you have an intractable problem.

Remember, Obama said that health insurance costs would go down with Obamacare. 

So who's have gone down?  Mine have gone up!  So has those of everyone who I know.  I have not found one person who, for like-for-like coverage, has seen costs go down, although I'm sure you will find some -- for example, someone with AIDS who currently cannot afford to buy at all!

Obamacare was sold to the American public as a means of "controlling" runaway health costs.  It has done nothing of the sort; it has instead advanced that runaway, and yet we haven't even felt the full brunt of the law yet.

This is where our budget problem comes from as well.  There are plenty of people in Washington who knows this, yet you should note that there is a stony silence when it comes to discussing the root of the problem or doing anything to fix it.

Once in a while you will hear someone holler that Health Insurance companies are "ripping people off."  But that's not true -- look at Tenet, with a 5.6% return on assets and a 7.6% operating margin (gross) and profit margin of 0.33%, or Cardinal with a 1.78% operating margin (!) and a 1% profit margin.  Raping the consumer?  Don't think so.

How about Merck?  Everyone hates Pharma, right?  Well, maybe you have a reason to -- 23.4% operating margin and 14% net.  Or you could look at Pfizer, 31% operating margin and 15.6% net.

That's pretty damned healthy.

But let's assume you zeroed Pfizer's net -- that is, you simply stole it (e.g. by taxation.)  How much difference would it make to the Federal Government's $850 billion in spending on health care last year?

Answer: About $6 billion, or well under 1%. 

In other words, nothing.

That's because the problem doesn't lie there.  It lies in the cost-shifting, especially international cost-shifting.  It lies in the production of goods and services for which there is no demand in the target markets at the market price, but there's plenty of demand (and thus supply) at a cross-subsidized price.

It is not so simple to say "we'll just tax the hell out of those Pharma folks!"  That will do nothing.  Likewise, you can't squeeze the provider side; there's nothing there to squeeze and blood does not flow from a stone.

So how do you get from here to where we need to go?

A couple of things have to happen -- and happen now:

Cross-border cost-shifting must end immediately.  The current rubric is that we "must" let Canada, for example, have Viagra for $2/pill or "they will break patents."  The answer is "tough cookies."  We must prevent the use of the guns of government to allow these firms to wildly distort pricing across boundaries, whether state or national

Were that to go away then anyone could buy Viagra for $2 and bring it here; the price in the US would collapse.  The makers of drugs and devices would argue that such will destroy the profit in these drugs and thus their development. 

That's only true if the price in the foreign nations remains artificially depressed!

What the drug and device companies argue is that these nations tell them that if they do not sell at "their" price then the nation will break their patents and the company will get nothing.  Rather than knuckle under to extortion our answer as a nation must be this:  You can do that, but if you do our development budget will go to zero, since we cannot recover our costs.  If you take this action anyway, knowing that to be the case, there will be nothing for you to steal since the products will not exist in the first place.

The same applies to cost-shifting within provision of services.  Juanita the illegal Mexican comes here 7 months pregnant, drug and alcohol addicted, and goes into labor.  She has no money and (of course) no insurance.  The hospital is required to treat her and her newborn in the NICU, running up a $2m bill which it has no means to collect. 

Then you come along with an inflamed appendix and it costs $20,000 to have it removed because $18,000 of that charge is your forced share of Juanita's care.  This is theft and it must stop right here and now -- because if it doesn't the entire damned system is going to collapse.

There is no other nation on the planet that allows this sort of financial******of their citizens to take place.  We're the only nation where it happens and we're fools.  The Democrats demagogue this issue but so have the Republicans -- EMTALA, which is the law that forced this business model on hospitals, was a Reagan thing.

Without EMTALA a hospital would have rely on charitable donations for such procedures, because if it attempted to enforce such a cost-shift otherwise you would (and could!) choose to go across town to a hospital that refused to do so.  You'd pay for your procedure there instead, and rather quickly the hospital that tried to force you to buy Juanita's procedures would go out of business.

You would never accept a grocery store that charged you 10x as much as the next person in line because you looked like you had money but the person behind you did not.  This scam is performed every single day in our nation's hospitals and it, along with the above, is inflating the cost of care by a factor of five to ten over what your medical care would otherwise cost.

The bleating over how medical care is "unaffordable" and thus "requires" government help is self-inflicted. Were these distortions to be removed you could pay for your surgery with a credit card -- yeah, the financing costs would be high, but you could do it.  Or you could sell your fancy rims on your ride to cover the cost of your child's birth.

This, my friends, is the root of our fiscal and competitiveness problem in America. 

It is damn close to the entire budget issue that faces this nation at a Federal and State level.

We either fix it -- and fix it now -- or the rest of the debate about budgets and fiscal priorities simply will not make a damn bit of difference to the outcome.

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User Info Misleading Headline Of The Day in forum [Market-Ticker]
Noodleman
Posts: 2509
Incept: 2008-11-01

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Obama needs to hurry up and get amnesty passed in the legislature, so that he can legitimately get all those criminals locked into the US health care system.

You see, he plans to cut WAY BACK on the VA health care system, dropping many vets who currently get coverage there by making them ineligible. This is particularly necessary with all the new Iraq vets coming back and demanding treatment.

Right now Obama can't do that with a straight face with so many illegals getting treated via the ER's in our hospitals. It just wouldn't look good treating illegals and denying vets.

That is just ONE reason why amnesty will get approved.

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"It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you can fool enough of them to rule a large country." William James Durant, 5 Nov 1885 - 7 Nov 1981

Drkshapiro
Posts: 651
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Noodle, the insurance companies don't make money off the VA, and the VA's drug costs are generally less than others pay. So there you go. It's about benefitting certain sectors over and over and over again. That's the purpose of government. Socialism for the rich and for the poor--paid for by the middle class. Until the middle class IS NO MORE.

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Dazedncornfused
Posts: 326
Incept: 2010-10-13
Green
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A me-too post.

After 5 years of rates declining by about 3% a year, BC/BS Mi has told us the next rating will go up by 50%. We won't know if our appeal is successful until we receive our April invoice the end of March.

This is complicated by BC/BS Mi asking (demanding?) legislative approval to convert from privileged nonprofit that must accept all applicants to for profit. Both sides of the legislature and the governor are for it, I'm not sure why it didn't pass last year but it is a done deal.

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Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered.
Drkshapiro
Posts: 651
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Here's what we have for my family insurance plan:

Blue Cross of California (Anthem BC) expects to raise rates by an average of 20.4%, and up to 25%, in 2013.

In 2012 the Anthem rates went up for us 18% last February.

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Zzt
Posts: 3064
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
Glendale az
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2%-3% - LMAO !!! I wish I had an increase like that. My wife and I are retired and our insurance is handled through my wifes' past employer ( the government ). The year Obama****youamerica was passed our rate increased 80% and the next year it increased by another 45%. Our next increase was just a couple percent but the damage had already more than been done.
Bigmak
Posts: 14
Incept: 2011-05-22

Waynesboro, VA
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Same company/plan as last year and even with higher deductibles and copays the premium is up 17% for 2013. Been with this plan for 20+ years and have never seen an increase like this but also have never seen a decrease.
Noodleman
Posts: 2509
Incept: 2008-11-01

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"Noodle, the insurance companies don't make money off the VA, and the VA's drug costs are generally less than others pay."

Yes, Dr. Shapiro. I knew a guy who worked government accounts in pharma. The VA gets what's called "best price". And if the pharma company has a product on contract with an HMO or another medical organization it MUST undercut the lowest price offered to those private companies by a certain pecentage to the VA, medicare and state medicaid agencies throughout the nation. Now that doesn't mean that the VA or the other gov't agencies have to put the product on their formularies. But the offer MUST be made to various government health care programs. And with all the managed pharmacy programs out there it's practically required to get the product on contract to get it on the respective formularies. Not being on the drug formulary of these LARGE organizations like Kaiser is the kiss of death for any pharma product. About the only way pharma can beat it is by producing a blockbuster drug that garners huge consumer demand that gets approved via prior authorization if it's not on formulary. But apparently the health plans hate to do that.

One good thing about being on a government formulary is the 'spin off'. If a government patient moves to a private health care plan and is on a certain drug NOT on the plan's formulary, it puts pressure on the pharmacy director to add it. But with certain drug classes the pharma companies actually LOSE money by being forced to provide their products to the government. That's a decision that must be made by the pharma company executives in the board room.

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"It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you can fool enough of them to rule a large country." William James Durant, 5 Nov 1885 - 7 Nov 1981

Mannfm11
Posts: 3617
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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There might be some solutions like telling the cancer industry they are going to have to show real results or we are going to quit paying.

There are a lot of things that go on. A guy I know needed a script for staph infection that he gets from time to time. Went to the ER because nothing else was open. Saw the Dr. who looked and wrote the script. Bill? $1300. Where? There were no costs involved that wouldn't be involved if you went to a doctors office, sat in the waiting room and then went in. They always treat the emergencies first. Plus, I would suspect the Doctor billed separately. That bill won't be paid and because the Doctor is a buzzard that floats around the ER, his bill of $250 won't be paid either. There is no wait for a spot and see the doctor for $50 or $75. How many tens of billions of unpaid bills are nothing but these $50 to $75 visits marked up to $1500? My bill was $4600 and they cut it in half, plus the doctor and radiologist. I paid it. The entire procedure was a scam.

There is an entire industry of buzzards that follow the American health industry. For one, we have lawyers, lobbyists (one and the same quite often) and bankers. Also, the peripheral suppliers. Look at the power chairs advertised to be paid for by Medicare? How many of those are for fat asses and how many are for people with real medical problems? Arnold Palmer doesn't seem to mind tagging along.

I suspect the pharmaceutical business is as much a feed the retailer as it is to feed the drug companies. If they charged the cash customer what they charge the insured/insurance company for drugs, we would have a different game. The retailer that has a pharmacy has a huge advantage over one that doesn't and I suspect there are huge/busy grocery stores in this area that make 5 times out of their pharmacy what they make out of groceries. If I could set up a an assembly line of $12 an hour helpers stuffing 24 pills in a bottle and putting a label on it for a $20 copay and maybe a $7 expense quotient, I think I would do it. The whole system is to force people into the insurance pool. Same drug the pharmacy gets maybe $30 to fill through insurance might sell for $80 to $100 to the cash customer. Why the triple profit.

My brother had a hole in his stomach last year and when he got out of the hospital, he had some prescriptions. The first script was called into CVS and for a few day supply, they hit him for $100 roughly. The next script, we went to Costco and it seems I recall a script many times as many was under $20. Maybe it was generic, but the game is one is a customer oriented company and the other insurance oriented. CVS would have gladly made 1/4 off that script from an insured/insurance company, but the ****ed the cash customer. In fact, the copay on the drug was higher than Costco's price. I think we would be shocked to know what is going on with these drugs after they leave the drug companies. The drug companies themselves may be the most efficient and cost effective game in the entire health care industry.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Drkshapiro
Posts: 651
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Mann, what you say above I agree with except that the reimbursement for running a prescription, on average, is less than what it costs to dispense. The stores have to have a pharmacy because people are busy and want one-stop shopping. Many places lose money on some prescriptions to get the person in the store, like some of these $4 or $5 plans. They don't lose money on all of them, just some of them. There's more money made on toothpaste and paper towels, plus they can charge shelf space for that.

Noodle, agree with what you said above, about the VA costs. Some patients know they get this drug at their regular place, and this one with the larger copay at the VA.

The big push now with pharmacies due to Obamacare is to get the money to be paid from primary care, since there aren't enough primary care providers to handle all the ones who will suddenly get insurance, and you don't need to go to a doctor's office for many routine conditions anyway. Some of the chains, like Walmart, have been ahead of the game on getting these services implemented. It will be more convenient for the patients because they can be seen quick and get the drugs filled quick.

But, this could have been done on a cash basis anyway for a lot less money and paid for by those getting the service done, cheaply. Oh well. The free market lost out on this one, at least for the time being.

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Drkshapiro
Posts: 651
Incept: 2012-09-12
Gold
Southern CA
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Karl did you see this:
Blue Shield of Texas donated 250,000 to an Obama inauguration event called The Black Tie and Boots Ball.

Can you dance in boots, besides the line style stuff? And what if you are drinking? That would be clumsy.

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A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on Paul. --GBS
Lenguado
Posts: 1285
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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WHAT?!?!??!?!

Sell my rims???? Are you Phreaking NUTS???

Gimme my damn FREE medical care you rassist pig. And keep your hands off my rims - or I'll shoot you whid my 'illegal in NY handgun'. . . .

/sarc off

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Noodleman
Posts: 2509
Incept: 2008-11-01

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The generic pharma companies must take a hit on some of these generic products. At places like WalMart the consumer can get some generic scripts for $4/mo. I know generics rely on volume, but how can a pharma company make any profit off margins that mut be incredibly low? It's costs money to make these generic products too. Generic companies have pharma monkeys that they have to feed too, right? I know that branded companies bundle their contracts and have loss leaders to get some big named branded products on the large formularies. But I really don't know how the generic companies survive, especially when a crapload of them jump in to produce an off-patent pharmaceutical that was popular in it's day. There must be some real nut-cuttin' between these generic companies to undercut the competition and get their products on the big formlaries. I wonder how that mechanism works?

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"It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you can fool enough of them to rule a large country." William James Durant, 5 Nov 1885 - 7 Nov 1981

Apotheoun
Posts: 1421
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold
MN
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my insurance went up 5% WITHOUT including deductable increases.

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"when despair is all you can see, the end is finally near."
"Because there is some good left in this world, AND ITS WORTH FIGHTING FOR!"
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2694
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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I remember before Obama care was implemented. Fox was interviewing someone from the Obama admin on Obamacare. They asked about cost savings. The admin rep stated that the cost savings would come down the road as doctors will be able to share information. I about fell off my chair.

It was never about saving money. It was all about divvying up the loot.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
12bolt
Posts: 163
Incept: 2009-08-24

Blueridge
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Quote:
Then you come along with an inflamed appendix and it costs $20,000


That was me in August 2011. Only it cost #35k. My share was over $6k. I'm still paying for it and should have that account zeroed by July of this year.

That with me seeing ~$500/mo taken out of my paycheck (which is now also smaller).

People don't want to talk about it because they're ignorant. They hear a soundbyte out of their TV or AM radio then they know everything.

Facts don't matter if they don't come out of an electronic box, evidently.

Only government approved facts and feel good emotions matter now.

Logical adults are a minority in this country.

Crzymorse
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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I suspect much of the costs incurred from the current healthcare system is debt related. I think the 9% growth rate per year and an aging population made the hospital systems think the market was going to grow that way for a long time. An ivy league MBA, excel spreadsheet and complete lack of common sense with a government backstop (FannieCare, Freddieaid) probably overleveraged every medical system in country. To add fuel to the fire, the inner city hospitals are the major employment centers for their respective cities and the aging population feels entitled to free healthcare.

We all know what happens when we start aligning incentives between what should be naturally competing and self-regulatory interests...artificially inflated prices with the nonstakeholders getting ****ed.

For example, how many people got a big increase in their property taxes for 6-7 years because of the housing bubble? Many people didn't buy or sell or flip a house but still got ****ed over. For all you that don't work in the favored 20% of GDP (healthcare) get ready for the extra long/wide rectal thermometer.

Small business - premiums went up over 25%.


Noodleman
Posts: 2509
Incept: 2008-11-01

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If I was in the ER with pain in my side and the doc told be it would cost me $35,000 to get it fixed - I'd probably tell him to let it burst.

Especially if Jose on the gurney next me gets a quadruple bypass for free. heh.

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"It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you can fool enough of them to rule a large country." William James Durant, 5 Nov 1885 - 7 Nov 1981

Throxxofvron
Posts: 10448
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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Try typing a word string such as: " Insurance increase premium 2013 " into a search and look around...




Hmmm???


-Uuuhhhh...

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Darcane
Posts: 19
Incept: 2008-12-16

Washington
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For 2012, my premiums went up nearly 30%, but my company picked up most of that increase and my out-of-pocket increase was only about 15%. However, increased spending on insurance premiums was cited as the reason for not matching 401k this year... So, I kinda feel it either way.

Now, my wife works for a school district and her premiums went up by 50%. Since the school pays a flat rate regardless of what plan you are on, her out-of-pocket costs went up 250%. And, she was already on a plan with a high deductible. Needless to say, the kids are now on my plan.

I am not looking forward to October 2013.
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2694
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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Darcane, the money has to come from somewhere. If you did not get a raise because your company had to fund Obama Care, the state and Fed also get less tax money off your income. If you are spending less because you did not get a raise or got less of a raise than you otherwise would have that is also negative revenue at state level.

Like those electric cars govt was pushing, they are now like "Hey wait a minute, we are not collecting gas taxes on those electric cars!"

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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The FSA needs your money.


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Welcome to Pottersville

Atlasrocked
Posts: 383
Incept: 2009-03-23
Silver
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the bigger problem than the politicians that sold obamacare on cost cutting is the CITIZENS that used this sales pitch. I know plenty of them. all of them argued on this point around the water cooler and at family debates.

i suggest we can't trust them because we are seeing a pattern of lying and deceptive arguments from the democrat citizens, not just the politicians, it is a repeating behavior to use one argument to push a legislation, then actually implement something different that aggrandizes them and degrades, de-frauds, debits, or imperils the rest of us.

Health care is the classic example: they pushed a giant lie, a scam, a bait n switch: the lie that "we have to reduce our health care costs" was used to push Obamacare - which has no cost controls in it, and no spending cuts enacted yet, and - have you noticed? - none of them are talking about spending cuts any more. They never intended to cut spending, but they all used it as a leading argument.
It was a 100% provably deceptive sales campaign, with the now-documented approval of all their voters.

If the voters will lie about cutting health care costs for their leaders, they'll lie about gun control, right?

I can find tens of reversals in "principles" in the debates I've had with them. they are just after leaving us with bills folks, that's all.

Take background checks, they're calling for? really? And if we ask for a background check on the head of the CIA, the FBI, the NSA, and the treasury, we are laughed at?

They are all deceiving, bait-n-switch, 100% lying frauds.


Calmb4thestorm
Posts: 86
Incept: 2010-06-20

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My premium just went up 20% and it's an HDHP for catastrophic illness only. It's getting insane.
Ben
Posts: 6408
Incept: 2009-10-09
Silver
The Distant, Glorious, Past
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"Then you come along with an inflamed appendix and it costs $20,000

That was me in August 2011. Only it cost #35k."

This would cost under $500 in Asia.

In 2005 we had 9% yoy premium increases from BS of California. That was the low outlayer, however. All future increases were 20%+.

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"Why are you going to learn French?"
"Because I'm going to France," says Joe.
"I'm from the future. You should go to China."
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