A Sprint In My Step
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-07-26 08:07
by Karl Denninger
in Earnings
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A Sprint In My Step
 

Now this is impressive.

The company reported a 46 cent loss (~40-41 was expected) which most people would have thought would send the shares down hard.  Instead they're up almost 20% premarket.

Why?

First, the wider loss was all on write-downs (most attributable to Nextel, I suspect.)  That's a line of business being discontinued.

Second, while Nextel lost a lot of customers, the "Sprint" side gained 442,000 postpaid customers.  Churn fell to 1.69% from 1.72%.  Revenues were up 6%, well above last year's comparable quarter's increase.  And ARPU was up too, which is one of the key metrics for a mobile phone company.  And finally, the company guided OIBDA up materially, to $4.5-4.6 billion from a previous range of $3.7-3.9 billion.

Pre-market the stock is bumping up against the $4 price level.  We'll see what happens during the trading day, but this is an impressive showing.  The company's execution is moving in the direction it should be, and the stock price is responding accordingly.

Technically, assuming price can break through $3.75 and hold it on the daily I am still looking for the bottom of the gap at $4.50 as a "first stop", and if we work our way up there my analysis on the technicals -- including volumetrics -- shows that there could be a very rapid rise in share price to around $6.

Needless to say if you got involved in the low $2s when I started banging the table on this turnaround story that will be a massive home run.

The only fly in the ointment is that if the stock opens here ($3.85, approximately) it will leave a nasty little gap that, on any sort of material disappointment later on, could serve as a price magnet.  As such this, like so many of these stories, is a "you either got it when the getting was good or you're taking a hell of a lot of risk trying to chase it" deal at the present time.

Disclosure: Long and liking it.

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User Info A Sprint In My Step in forum [Market-Ticker]
Ct1977
Posts: 231
Incept: 2009-08-13

East Hartford, CT
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This is working out great for me. Thanks again for pointing S out out to us when you did. If your ever in Connecticut I owe you diner and a few drinks.
Tbessi
Posts: 77
Incept: 2010-05-10
Green
Elkhart, IN
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Watch out on Sprint, it'll be very interested on how they transition the 2-way from the Nextel phones. We have the supposed 2-ways mixed right now between Sprint and the old Nextel system. The Sprint system is absolutely terrible and almost worthless for my guys that have it. With the Nextel system still working well, for now.

If they don't transition it well and keep a 2 way system along with cell system. I predict they loose a huge customer base in the move.

As a contractor, Nextel's 2-way system was the only thing holding my company and most contractors/municiple's I know to their system.

But of course thats my 2 cents.
Musicandnature
Posts: 1947
Incept: 2007-12-05
Gold
NJ
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Good for you Gen getting rewarded for doing your own analysis vs the mainstream poo-pooers. Did you hold your full position or had cut some loose before e's when s/t trend seemed to break ?

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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I held the entire thing. It was very tempting to put on a hedge into the bell with $3.50 weekly PUTs, and I was debating doing exactly that, but doing so would have been throwing a fair bit of money on the table to mitigate a disaster, with a 100% loss of the premium if the street liked the results.

I decided instead for the stick-in-teeth approach for what might have been quite the assault on my ass, and it paid off.

Size on this would be considered "XXL" for me too... so there was a good amount of risk here. Nonetheless I believed earnings would be "ok" -- and they are. The two most-important numbers in there are the top-line of course and also the ARPU, which is going the right way.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Musicandnature
Posts: 1947
Incept: 2007-12-05
Gold
NJ
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guess you can play ac/dc "big balls' later with your Cognac. lol.

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
Wearedoomed
Posts: 3584
Incept: 2009-01-14
Silver
slightly red state
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... while you're also pondering boat names.

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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
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Genesis wrote..
Needless to say if you got involved in the low $2s when I started banging the table on this turnaround story that will be a massive home run.


With all due respect, I seem to remember you being bullish on it at higher prices exactly a year ago, although it may have been more of a trading position then.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?single....


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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Read all the articles I've posted on Sprint ETB. There are a bunch of them.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
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Yeah, I've read them all. You even were quite bearish on it at one point last fall with a headline "Sprinting toward bankruptcy" - so logically thinking, I doubt you were long there. smiley

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Correct.

When the facts change so do my views (and positions.)

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-08-25


Banned
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Sprint up to just over $4 (up 20%), and MetroPCS up to $8.50 (up 35%).

I was considering some Sprint at $2.50 and decided against it, since the markets usually do the opposite of what I think they will. Whoops.

Reason:
Wis/min
Posts: 5361
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold A True American Patriot!
On the border
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Wish I had bought tens times as much.

Not that I'm complaining. :-)

I intend to hold this for quite a while.

Maybe they will keep long term cap gains taxes low. I hope.


Southbayhombre
Posts: 92
Incept: 2008-12-10
Gold
Los Angeles
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Thank you Gen. I am pleased with my 2014 Leap Calls I puchased after your article, when S was trading at $2. (In at $1 each.) My position counts as medium balls. But money is money. No hedges on this either.

Figuring out if I will buy the Benelli M2 I have been eyeing, or an 4xx32 ACOG for my AR, with a piece of my gains........

Cha Ching !
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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I was going to buy some MetroPCS too but doing so would have violated my net sector position limit rules given the size of the Sprint position I put on, so I didn't..... I also didn't want to swap from "S" to "PCS" as my visibility and time following the latter were both worse than for Sprint, so it was more-dangerous.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Covenant
Posts: 262
Incept: 2009-01-13
Gold
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More info on a new phone and LTE rollout. Goog's purchase of Motorola might be bearing fruit.

http://www.androidcentral.com/sprint-get....

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There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them.
-- Atlas Shrugged

No matter how good you look in the mirror, the skinny little BJJ kid is still gonna choke you.
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