Oops.... (Governor Johnson)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-07-16 17:12
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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Oops.... (Governor Johnson)
 

Maybe some conditionality and understanding of the interconnection of issues -- and why that's important to voters -- might be a good idea.

From the mailbag:

Gary Johnson at 5.3% nationally against Obama and Romney

Friends,

A national Zogby poll released Friday shows Governor Johnson at 5% when included along with President Obama and Mitt Romney.

That is a number that should be hard for the elite media and the Commission on Presidential Debates to ignore – especially when they consider that, while Obama and Romney are spending tens of millions of dollars on radio and TV advertising, not a single penny of paid media advertising has appeared anywhere on behalf of Governor Johnson.

Very nice, right?

Unfortunately not.

March 26, 2012. Raleigh.

.....

According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, the Libertarian Johnson is hovering around 7 percent nationally. That’s not bad considering the popular former Governor has very little name recognition at this early stage of the campaign.

From March 22, 2012 Public Policy Polling survey:

    Barack Obama (D) – 46 percent

    Mitt Romney (R) – 39

    Gary Johnson (L) – 7

    Undecided – 8

Two months ago, a separate poll showed former Governor Johnson at 9 percent nationally. Both numbers being within the margin of error of each other suggests the 2 point discrepancy is due to a slightly different polling group rather than a loss of support for the candidate.

What does a 40% loss of support (from 9%) (or a 24% one, from 7%) in less than four months suggest, and at that decay rate what happens in another four months when the election is held?

Time to think gentlemen, while there is still time, as I believe I see an iceberg up ahead....

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Oops.... (Governor Johnson) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Buddy
Posts: 157
Incept: 2008-10-25
Gold
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I believe a third party stands a chance in this election. I also believe that it might be as simple as fighting financial fraud and the political pandering related. The INITIAL message and support of OWS and Tea Party by a large amount of people with different backgrounds shows this is possible, and the issues (of above) that can galvanize all types of voters. Johnson likely will never try it because if it fails, then he may not reap the rewards of some other election or political position, and the rewards that might have (insider trading, revolving door, pension, etc). And of course Mittens and Obuma ain't going to do it either.

Twainfan
Posts: 147
Incept: 2010-12-01

Minnesota
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Johnson was the wrong choice for the LP. The man is either clueless, stupid or just plain lying thru his teeth. This is a great year for a 3rd party to step in... people can't stand Obama or Romney. Unfortunately, Johnson isn't doing a thing to help himself. Ron Paul would have been a good 3rd party candidate with his avid following but that's not going to happen either. We need someone up there that can hammer the message home about the economy and the fraud. All I ever hear from Johnson seems to be "let's legalize pot".

We need another Ross Perot type .. the guy had spunk and wasn't afraid to lay it out there for the people to see what was going on.
Irritatedcitizen
Posts: 72
Incept: 2011-05-20

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As a scientist, I'm always looking for error values around confidently stated numbers. Hey, 5.3%! That's precise. Man, they must have that nailed down to +/- 0.05%, right? Or they wouldn't put that last significant figure in? That was stuff we learned in high school science, anyway, so JOURNALISTS couldn't miss it!

Wrong.

Here's the link for the new poll (which isn't Zogby, it's JZ Analytics) http://jzanalytics.com/DATA/JZ_Analytics.....

This thing says, right on the first page, that despite having sampled 893 people the 95% confidence intervals are +/- 3.3%. Yeah. Margin of error of 3.3% in either direction. There is NO EXCUSE to cite anything more than whole-number percents when you have that kind of uncertainty. The decimal is entirely deception.

I haven't dug further into the past reports, but if you go one link further back from the earlier 7% link (which is less dishonest by omitting decimals at least) they note that an even earlier poll had Johnson at 9%... but also point out that two-point difference was within error. That's a better article.

Now, a third point does imply a trend. But these are very uncertain points which I am unwilling to extrapolate any conclusions on at this time.

Ee4fire
Posts: 88
Incept: 2011-03-24

Washington, DC
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The truly sad part of any of these polls is that Barack Obama actually has a chance of winning this election. Not that Romney would be my first pick. It goes to show the sad state of the electorate in this country. The citizens of the USA would rather have a Panderer in Chief vs. a Commander in Chief or a Leader.

Obviously, the trillions of our tax dollars spent by our elected representatives to buy votes has paid off. The dumbing down of the majority of our society is almost complete.

We are so screwed.

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“(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.


Reason: spelling
Susanjbear
Posts: 417
Incept: 2010-06-10
Gold
Salt Lake City, Utah
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Quote:
We need another Ross Perot type .. the guy had spunk and wasn't afraid to lay it out there for the people to see what was going on.


Ross Perot had a great thing going ("...that giant sucking sound...") until he totally whacked out about some inter-galactic plot to mess up his daughter's wedding.

Soo... is Gary Johnson still claiming no financial crimes have been committed? I have a very difficult explaining this to liberty candidates why I am not voting for them. Downsizing government and giving people a pink slip because their job goes away is NOT GOOD ENOUGH for me when crimes have been committed.

Romney, the high school bully, may actually stand a chance of winning, because he has good hair - and that's how idiotic voters think. I recently took great pleasure in taking the postage paid reply envelopes from both his campaign and from his wife, took the paper their surveys were printed on and a nice fat red sharpie and wrote "Take me off your mailing list" and sent those back to them on their dime.

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Susan
Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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I make amusing tickers out of them.

Done one already.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Antone
Posts: 7663
Incept: 2008-02-03
Green
Seditionia, USSA
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All aboard the Failboat. Iceberg not necessary as it sets sail with holes pre-installed.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.

Downrange
Posts: 5384
Incept: 2007-09-26
Green
Just Say No to RomnobamaDingDong!
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Pud pounding. That's all. There are only two parties in the mind of the body politic, and no matter how much one wishes a quixotic turnaround, it's not coming. Most likely, if Johnson gathers more than 5 per cent come November, he will do nothing but hand the election to the commie in chief.

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"If this is how the state treats its law-abiding citizens, it doesn't deserve to have any" A. Solzhenitzen

Reason: typo
Morla
Posts: 815
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
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Whatever you do Johnson, don't say anything that might get anybody's attention, such actions could result in consequences like more people having ever heard of you before.

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?

Reason: Didn't take my hand off the piece
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2656
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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Easy fix, put Ron Paul as the VP....

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05

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From the (as always) invisible LP candidate, to an invisible depression.

Well, at least when someone from the WSJ says publicly that we're actually in an "invisible" depression, some tiny amount of progress has been made. Of course, the cause isn't understood by this guy or his interviewer, but hey, it's better than nothing:

The U.S. is in an invisible depression (video)

http://live.wsj.com/video/why-the-us-is-....

Jymm
Posts: 73
Incept: 2012-01-22

Wisconsin
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Gary Johnson is just another failed Republican running as a Libertarian. The party needs to wake up and run REAL Libertarians. I am guessing, the party leadership never will though, and the Libertarian party will remain what it is, a dissident vote. Bill Still would have been a better choice. Name recognition is should not be the first criteria.
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