As Europe Teeters This Weekend...
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-23 10:32
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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As Europe Teeters This Weekend...
 

What, you mean the Bundesbank would like to "own the world"?

As Spanish banks scramble for collateral to use in the refinancing operations that are keeping them afloat, the Frankfurt-based ECB said it will cut the rating thresholds and amend eligibility requirements for some asset-backed securities. While the move will give stressed banks greater access to ECB liquidity, it may also increase the amount of risk on the central bank’s balance sheet.

“We’re critical of this,” Bundesbank spokesman Michael Best said yesterday. In terms of collateral, “we won’t accept what we don’t have to accept,” he said.

....

“It’s almost the usual game: the ECB has to do something to alleviate a liquidity crisis and the Bundesbank isn’t very happy about it,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said in a telephone interview.

This is not, as often claimed, a "liquidity crisis." 

When you continually spend more than you take in the problem is not liquidity.  It is solvency -- specifically, your insolvency.

There has not yet been one government that has voluntarily decided to cut the crap and spend only what it takes in via taxes.  The reason is that doing so means not just prospectively re-aligning services and revenues, but doing so retroactively and admitting that the promises made to people over the years were active and intentional frauds.

That's difficult, of course.  It's especially difficult when telling the truth means that the electorate might skin you -- and maybe literally, not just at the ballot box.

Meanwhile the Germans (and everyone else) are trying to play the "growth will save us" card.

At a four-way summit meeting in Rome yesterday, Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, French President Francois Hollande and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said they would lobby their European Union partners to accept a growth plan of as much as 130 billion euros ($163 billion), or about 1 percent of the euro-region’s economic output.

That won't work; you have to grow output faster than debt, which is clearly not happening!

Remember the basic function of exponents -- if one is larger than the other the two curves always run away from each other.  You can't make the laws of mathematics change by political decree -- your options are to either (1) deal with it or (2) have it blow up in your face.

And if you think it's not going to hit us here in the US, well.... read this:

Critics say the GASB changes don't go far enough, particularly in the way states will have to calculate pension liabilities that stretch over several decades.

To make that calculation, pension plans use a "discount rate"—an interest-rate assumption to determine how much future benefit payments are worth in today's dollars.

Public pension plans use the rate of return they expect on their investments, typically around 8%.

The lower the discount rate, the higher the obligations' current value—and higher obligations mean a bigger funding gap.

Yeah, those pension funds...... oh, you think they're safe eh?  I've been pounding the table on this since 2007, but that the bomb hasn't gone off yet makes everyone chortle with glee that all is fine.  Or how about things like Medicare and Medicaid (which have been 9.3% compound growth expense rates for the last 30 years), among other "tiny" little problems.....

The nature of exponents means that these sorts of problems have a habit of appearing to approach slowly over time.... and then all at once.  That's how it happened in Europe and it's how it will happen here, and it's simply a matter of mathematics.  That is, all exponential series behave this way, so nobody should be surprised when willful refusal to deal with the "small, in the distance" problem suddenly looms large and goes "boom."

I recommend that everyone take the weekend and enjoy nature, recognizing that the laws of mathematics in fact will always win out in the end, whether the bloviating politicians like it or not.

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User Info As Europe Teeters This Weekend... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Azengrcat
Posts: 184
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I think everyone should be familiar with the concept of "hockey stick" since it has been drilled into everyone's head in school and the media by the greenies for the past 20 years regarding global warming theory . The difference is this hockey stick is coming with 100% certainty and it's going get jammed up everyone's rear end and broken off sideways.
Bluebird
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Silver
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What will those bloviating politicians tell us when this Ponzi implodes...we never saw it coming, we haven't any plans, every man for himself, every neighborhood for itself.
This isn't going to end well.
Blurtman
Posts: 563
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Looks like its time for a Turkey/Nato versus Syria/allies war. Just a proxy war to start.

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I have a reading comprehension problem and the owner banned me for repeatedly displaying it after being warned.
Crzymorse
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Maryland
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As the next load of **** is well on its way to the fan. I'm seeing receivables building up and fortune 500 companies paying late. Not just end of Q public company bull**** either. Signs of trouble are showing up.
Pooslinger
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Gold
Illinois
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Great advice Karl! I've been doing just that all week.
Snowmizuh
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Is the beach shot one of yours, Gen? Doesn't look like the Gulf.
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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I took it yesterday. Try to figure out where.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Uwe
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KD wrote..
I recommend that everyone take the weekend and enjoy nature, recognizing that the laws of mathematics in fact will always win out in the end, whether the bloviating politicians like it or not.

Actually, I'm going to take my daughter ... To the range. smiley

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Murf
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Cutting the ratings threshold on collateral is such a blatantly desperate act that I'm surprised anyone would play in that market. In addition, the fact that a superior position in bond hierarchy can be undercut in a rescue and not trigger CDS should signal all investors to GET OUT.

I'm not sure how many legs are holding this tower up, but a couple of the crucial ones have been chopped off in the past two weeks.

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The money has already been lost. Someone has to book it.

Uwe
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KD wrote..
Try to figure out where.

* Too much of a hill in the background to be anywhere in FL.
* Vegetation and architecture of buildings doesn't look tropical.
* Proximity of vegetation to water makes me think the water is fresh, not salty.
I'm thinking that's a lake much further north than where you usually are; eastern half of North America, but I don't think I can nail it down any closer than that.

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Snowmizuh
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Well, definitely not the Gulf. Looks too cold. Beach is rocky. All the little beach cottages have fireplaces. I presume the fire taken at the same place. If you took it yesterday, it was cold. Folks sitting there have on wind-breakers and pants. First thought: Ireland, Scotland, etc.? Just checked: lows in the 50s last night. Checking weather looks like there was a system over British Isles yesterday. Clear skies in picture. Southern hemisphere then? Where in the Southern hemisphere has English-style beach cottages on the beach?

Hmm, I think I see am American Flag on that pier. That beach looks like Chesapeake Bay to me. Estuarine like Mobile Bay--but no ridges like that on Mobile Bay. Looks like a sunset shot though. Folks typically don't build beach fires in the morning. Must be facing W-SW then. What is that island out there? And is that a lighthouse?

Best guess: Pacific coast: Oregon or Washington. I'm familiar with LA beaches up to Malibu but not North of there. I think I see some of West-coast-style conifers going up that ridge...

Daveincsa
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In the South
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What will really suck is that when the Ponzi implodes, the same "bloviating politicians" will stand before the mic and blame the other party while claiming to have all the answers to resolving the current crisis.
Genesis
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Snow: clean miss

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Sutluc
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Lake Superior? Looks like one of the great lakes to me.
Mo
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Pa.
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Quote:
Signs of trouble are showing up.


When they stop paying their employee health insurance premiums. THAT'S the sign of the impending collapse.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Mo
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Maine?

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Welcome to Pottersville
Snowmizuh
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Well, Sherlock I'm not, apparently.
Flappingeagle
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That looks a lot like the view from a friend of mine's place outside of Seattle. So, I'm thinking Snow is pretty close on his location of Oregon/Washington.

Enjoy that view...

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Bagbalm
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Just North of Detroit
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The shape of the beach says no big tides, but storm action. The white in the sand is gravel not shells. But limestone not multicolor gravel. Western shore - big lake. I'm guessing western shore of Michigan's lower peninsula or Erie Islands. Not Lake Superior or it would be colorful gravel. I've never been along the shore of Huron so have no idea if it could be there.
Drjerry
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Seattle
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It seems like politicians can't do 5th grade math.
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Bag is warmer than the rest of you

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Snowmizuh
Posts: 1351
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Green
Alabama
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I know you took it with a Canon EOS 60D. :) You either scrubbed the rest of the Exim data or that camera doesn't have GPS.

@Bag, how can you tell it's western shore? That would be a sunrise pic then right?
Bagbalm
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West side of land not water. I may have used wrong terms. I think it is looking north to northwest about 8:45pm eastern time.
Jonesapple10
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Quote:
I took it yesterday. Try to figure out where.


Lake Geneva?. (close to Chicago and all)

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