Greece: Now The Fun Begins
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-06-17 19:45
by Karl Denninger
in International
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Greece: Now The Fun Begins
 

It ain't over until the fat lady sings.....

Greek election winner Antonis Samaras begins his second bid in six weeks to form a coalition as euro-area finance chiefs pressured him to form a government that would keep bailout aid flowing.

European officials indicated a willingness to ease the terms of rescue loans as long as Greece, with just weeks of cash in the bank, re-commits to their austerity demands. The prospect that Samaras would lose to anti-bailout leader Alexis Tsipras rattled markets concerned that Greece may quit the 17-nation currency union. The result sent the euro higher.

Two problems immediately arise: PASOK hasn't committed to forming a coalition government, and Syriza has said "absolutely not."

“The Greek people expressed their will to stay anchored with the euro, remain an integral part of the euro zone and honor the country’s commitments,” Samaras told supporters in Athens yesterday after the election result. “There is no time for petty politics.”

The hell they did.  You didn't get 50%+ of the vote.  What you have, in fact, is more of a shift toward anti-bailout parties than you had in the last round.

This sounds like our government that had 300:1 sentiment against TARP but passed it anyway.  Of course we were too stupid to eject everyone who voted for it a few weeks later, so I can hardly say I'm surprised that since then our legislature has acted like we never said "no" in the first place!

Nonetheless the real problem has not been addressed -- the government cannot spend more than it takes in via taxation.  Nor can it in Spain, here, or anywhere else.

And yet not one of these governments has come to the people and told the truth in this regard.

Until they do there is no resolution and any attempt to claim that "the problem is resolved" (or at least "settled down") is a lie.

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User Info Greece: Now The Fun Begins in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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They'll nevers tell the truth, even when the cannibals are at their doors. This is just the way sociopaths are: they tell a different lie when they're caught telling a lie. And they laugh when they do it.

There's only one way to stop a sociopath.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Sean
Posts: 1766
Incept: 2009-04-21

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Karl, you need a "Kick the can down the road" smiley!

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!

Xnavnuke
Posts: 101
Incept: 2009-05-07

Hampton Roads, VA
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Zero Hedge has an update that PASOK will not join a coalition unless Syriza does as well. The latter has said no way. This is fun to watch in a sick kind of way.
Zacmilo
Posts: 96
Incept: 2009-07-14

australia
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Cue the riot dog?
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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I am confused about the system that Greece uses. Does the party that gets the most votes have the first, or only, chance to form a government? Can the parties that didn't get the most votes band together and form a government if they can get a majority together?

No matter how many buzz words they use it still won't change the fact that Greece can carry its debt load.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Mooreupp
Posts: 367
Incept: 2007-10-31
Green
Ohio
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Flappingeagle,

The party with the most votes automatically gets an extra 50 seats and gets first crack at forming a government. I believe it goes down the line after that.

Creating any kind of majority is difficult here though. The results will looking something like this (from http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/20....

New Dawn: 129
SYRIZA: 71
PASOK: 33
Independent Greeks: 20
Golden Dawn: 18
Dimar 17
KKE: 12

You need 151 for a majority. New Dawn needs PASOK even though they are left because everyone else if against the bailouts, besides maybe Dimar (Democratic Left; not enough votes anyway).

SYRIZA would have chance to form a government if New Dawn can't, but I can't see them doing it. Without New Dawn, they'd every other party but one involved.


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The Constitution is the law. It is not, and was never meant to be a "living document."
Quillbill
Posts: 1469
Incept: 2009-06-23
Green
Northwest Illinois
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What is so hard to understand about talking tough and then selling out when you realize its gonna suck and you just don't wanna deal with that right now.

We, like the Greeks, are ALL complicit in prolonging and playing the game.

That's all it is. A game. And people beg for game over and then simply roll over.

No hope for mankind doing this voluntarily. Instead the collective ass will be handed to the oh so wise players.

Now rally the **** on.

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It is a new day....DO SOMETHING WITH IT!
Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Quote:
But while President Barack Obama's press secretary Jay Carney congratulated Greece on holding the vote, his statement made clear this was no time for a sigh of relief, much less a victory lap.

"We hope this election will lead quickly to the formation of a new government that can make timely progress on the economic challenges facing the Greek people," Carney said.

"As President Obama and other world leaders have said, we believe that it is in all our interests for Greece to remain in the euro area while respecting its commitment to reform," the spokesman added. "Going forward, we will engage Greece in the spirit of partnership that has guided our alliance and the friendship between our people."
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama....
Rrasmuss
Posts: 916
Incept: 2007-12-22
Green
HHH WA
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Culture trumps the math,again. Judging by the vote, most Greeks want the those FSA checks to keep rolling in. The Cluebyfour will be collapse.

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I'm moving to California
Cogito Cogito, ergo Cogito sum, Cogito
Jal
Posts: 513
Incept: 2009-03-25

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Quote:
TOPIC: What Choice is in Greece's Best Interest?


That's easy ...
A parliament that is just like the USA.

Promises promises but impossible to enact.

Keep the money flowing to Greece.
Zacmilo
Posts: 96
Incept: 2009-07-14

australia
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel holds conference call with Antonis Samaras following Greek election victory and says she is confident the country would now abide by bailout pledges.
Before any coalition can be formed Merkel says "no deal" so Samaras is left holding a poisoned chalice and needs to share it around,without any hint of a Spanish type bailout deal.
I don't trade in the stock market but if I did I would be selling into the bounce,then again I only push a vacuum cleaner around and a lowly pleb like me probably knows nothing.
Trades50
Posts: 4218
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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Did anyone think there was going to be any other outcome?

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Pooslinger
Posts: 4393
Incept: 2007-11-06
Gold
Illinois
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Nope.
Andysvw
Posts: 1761
Incept: 2010-06-26
Green
Tujunga Ca
Online
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Bankers and technocrats in complete control.
Morla
Posts: 817
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Well it's not like voting was going to fix this anyway. Default is what will fix this.. Don't worry Greeks, that which can not be paid will not be paid. Blood will not emit from a stone, take note of the way some of your countrymen have decided the barter system is more efficient than playing around with bank paper and the taxman. What big government doesn't realize is that if a currency system is burdened enough by taxation and devaluation much of the public will be led by necessity to do business in some other manner. A currency exists only on confidence, if people begin to think of paper as paper instead of something they can trust then all the kings men/horses end up pushing on strings as the people do what they must, the institution be damned.

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Andysvw
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yup
Mooreupp
Posts: 367
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Most the articles I'm reading now seem to believe PASOK will join in a government with New Dawn. Actually I bet they cave and do it (it will be about the last significant thing they ever do though, Syriza will become the default leftist party going forward if PASOK is part of the coalition and they aren't).

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The Constitution is the law. It is not, and was never meant to be a "living document."
Etz
Posts: 13891
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
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Quote:
The Greek people expressed their will to stay anchored with the euro, remain an integral part of the euro zone and honor the country’s commitments

Please make sure this month's check is on time.

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Morla
Posts: 817
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
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Quote:
Syriza will become the default leftist party going forward if PASOK is part of the coalition and they aren't
Wouldn't surprise me, people are starting to see who the crony corporatists/technocrats are and what it is they do. You're in bad shape when the "right" wing is the one trying to defer to unelected technocrats.. I feel for Greece but like I say there will always be an answer on the small scale. If you have something of value or are willing to perform a service of value there will be someone willing to exchange something else for that, skipping right over Mr. Government if he becomes too much of a roadblock. There needn't be some intellectual revolution, necessity will accomplish this on its own if need be.

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Asimov
Posts: 104066
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Exit polls in greece are notoriously inaccurate. I'd wait till 1am et for the official results.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Morla
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdopMqrft....

(edit)
Quote:
Exit polls in greece are notoriously inaccurate. I'd wait till 1am et for the official results.
Doesn't matter who wins this, being "anti-bailout" is one thing but offering a real alternative is quite another. The Greek people will have to pull themselves out of this on an individual basis, by their bootstraps and with no help from their insane government or the "EU". Voting only determines which nonsense they'll have to listen to while doing this.

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?

Highrev
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Incept: 2009-02-21
Silver
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There is no such thing as "New Dawn".

"New Democracy (Néa Dimokratía, literally "New Republic", also known by its acronym ND) is the main centre-right political party and one of the two major parties in Greece. It was founded in 1974 by Konstantinos Karamanlis and formed the first cabinet of the Third Hellenic Republic." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democra....

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Enlightened self-interest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightened....
HighRev's Open House is my internet hangout. Drop by whenever you like. The door is always open. smiley

Bozonian
Posts: 19889
Incept: 2007-09-01
Green
Saratoga Springs, New York
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The politicians can tell all the truth they want. The people won't listen to bad news. It'll be, "bull**** we're broke! The rich *******s have all the money! Take it from them!".

This is why you should never allow deficit spending in the first place. Once you get started, it's always going to end like this. Best to forbid sovereign debt entirely. Sovereign debt is just a way for politicians to get free money and give it to their friends.


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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.

Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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Tickerguy wrote..
Of course we were too stupid to eject everyone who voted for it a few weeks later, so I can hardly say I'm surprised that since then our legislature has acted like we never said "no" in the first place!
"Well, I distrust Congress in general, and yes, my Congressperson voted wrong on that. But I have to vote for him, because I like him and he has nice hair."

smiley

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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