The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $404.6 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 5.3 percent (±0.7%) above May 2011. Total sales for the March through May 2012 period were up 5.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2012 percent change was revised from 0.1 percent (±0.5)* to -0.2 percent (±0.2%)*.
Hmmm.... read the headline and you'd say "I don't like this report."
Let's look inside on a non-adjusted basis.
First, on a non-adjusted basis retail trade was up materially, not down. So the decline was "seasonal adjustments", not actual figures. Indeed, on an unadjusted basis I challenge you to find an actual dollar-level decline.....
On an adjusted basis the big decline was in gasoline (2.2%); everything else was mostly-flat. But gas prices have fallen materially in the month of May, so you'd expect dollar volume to be down. The surprise is that on an unadjusted basis it was not; instead it was up 3%.
The market didn't like the report, dropping a few points. My view after a quick look through the actual table? It's flat on a seasonally-adjusted basis for the most part with the only real seasonal decline of note beyond gasoline being in building supplies (-1.7%)
This report looks like a yawner to me.
