The Tide Is Turning.....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-14 09:55
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
The Tide Is Turning.....
 

This morning Jim Cramer, along with the rest of the CNBS crew, actually "endorsed" a return to Glass-Steagall in the wake of the JPM disaster.

When asked "but won't that make American banks less competitive?" he answered with a bluster that was basically this: "What, like BNP Parabas?" smiley

Yep.

Glass-Steagall is a good idea but it doesn't go far enough.  The correct solution, as I have repeatedly pointed out, is One Dollar of Capital.

This is the only solution to both preventing banking panics and long-term economic stability.

One Dollar of Capital:

  • Stops counterfeiting of the currency.  Without the ability to create unbridled credit money the commercial banks and Fed can no longer create pretend GDP, which instantly reflects into asset prices in a bubble, foisting the costs off on those who cannot take advantage of those asset price increases.  This is how your wealth and future have been systematically and intentionally looted over the last 30 years, and it's one of the oldest games out there when it comes to banking.  President Jackson knew it, as did others before him; this scam job literally goes back to Hammurabi!  This old con must go away.

  • Ends -- without question -- systemic risk.  Since there is no longer unbacked emission into the economy there is no longer any possibility of systemic risk.  A bank that wishes to loan more than the immediate liquidation value of an asset must attract actual capital from stockholders or bondholders to lend; it cannot create credit money unless it can show a perfected security interest against an asset that is worth more than the credit money created.

  • Returns credit to its legitimate function in the economy -- self-liquidating lubrication for trade.  A self-liquidating loan is not inflationary and has no longer-term impact on the economy.  It permits the use of credit for legitimate lubrication of commerce; trans-national trade, for example, relies on letters of credit to guarantee payment for goods in transit; the goods are the asset securing the paper.  Likewise, a loan for 80% of a house's market value is secured by the house, and if marked to the market on a reasonable basis (e.g. every three months or so) it is safe as additional capital calls will certainly occur before the value goes negative.

One Dollar of Capital simply says that you cannot issue unbacked loans.  Period.  You can lend against an asset, but only to it's immediate liquidation value in the marketplace.  That's it.

Our current paradigm requires a roughly 6% excess asset valuation in banks.  We retain this standard.  Banks are then free to choose how close to that line they wish to dance; invasion of that 6% safety threshold results in immediate liquidation of the firm.  If they wish to lend at 94% of a house's value they can, but any movement against them results in the position going underwater.  Most will choose to build in some sort of reasonable cushion -- like 20% down -- to prevent this.

All derivative positions must be individually reserved; nobody may depend on someone else's promise to cover a transaction as a promise is not capital.  If I wish to be short a derivative that requires me to deliver a given instrument then at the instant that position goes into the money against me I must be able to clear the underlying trade and must possess the actual capital to do so.  If I can't clear the trade at any instant in time then my firm is liquidated -- period.

It's not that difficult to understand folks.  Oh sure, the mavens of Wall Street have screamed bloody murder about any such proposal, claiming that this would "damage American competitiveness in financial services."

My retort in 2008 was "If you wish to juggle jars of nitroglycerin I hope you don't mind if I ask that you do it in your country rather than in ours."

Now, four years on, we're finally hearing similar sounds in the mainstream media.

The effect of this regulatory change would be to end derivative trading by any actual bank.  "Investment banks", which take no deposits and are funded entirely by investor capital with no ability to write credit money into existence, can trade all they want.  Margin supervision is perfectly adequate here, as the risk lies entirely within that firm.  That's fine.

As I wrote in Leverage (click on the book cover to the right to buy):

But One Dollar of Capital as presented above both goes further and shuts down all the schemes and risk-hiding that banks can engage in, making a bank an effective public utility, while retaining private ownership of the financial system. Whether a bank takes deposits under this standard becomes immaterial as deposit-based lending cannot happen on an unsecured basis.  Banks that wish to loan against a known asset value can do so but to lend unsecured they must acquire lent capital from the market via the sale of stock or bonds, and cannot use depositor funds for this purpose.

We must end the unbacked emission of credit money into the system.  That is where all of these problems come from -- fake GDP, destruction of purchasing power, buying of votes and systemic instability.

It all begins and ends there and any Presidential, House or Senate officeholder or candidate who does not understand this is unfit to hold the office.

Those who do understand this and yet refuse to act are aiding and abetting economic terrorism and must be held to account.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvTvWJWeQ2g

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User Info The Tide Is Turning..... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Jstanley01
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Zarathustra
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What we need to move the markets UP is a new "homebuilder survey." Anyone remember when that is released?

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Joyce
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This is 3 months old, did we get a ticker on this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20....

I may have missed it
Genesis
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Several, but it's not QUITE what it appears.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Jal
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Quote:
One Dollar of Capital simply says that you cannot issue unbacked loans. Period.


I would think that this would require a weening period before implementing.

.... don't spend more that your income.
Joyce
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I'm going to have to search for them. But that's a shame if the article is misleading; hate when I get my hopes up.
Musicandnature
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Well it would be great if this gets traction. We can hope, it has to.

You reminded me of another Roger Waters classic observation on society- "amused to death"- which the ptb will seek to keep as the the status quo with profuse non-relevant news headlines.

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pla....

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.

Reason: ty
Zarathustra
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Market to green in 3, 2, 1....

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Verredesoleil
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Karl, let me first give the disclaimer that I read your columns just about every morning and I own a copy of your book. Now the criticism: on the next printing please, oh please, have your publisher turn off the full justification and/or correct the uneven spacing between words. It is a God awful distraction and IMHO ruins the book. Does not mean I am correct just my design input.
Eaglewwit
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The entire "Rube Goldberg" financial system needs to be dismantled. It is entirely too complicated for the very simple utility function that it is supposed to do. The complexity of it has simply been used as a smokescreen for looting on a scale never seen before in the history of mankind.
Steelhead23
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Eliott Spitzer was on This Week yesterday and said a series of gems about JPM and bank regulation in general. Before being cutoff by Maitlin and Stephanopoulos, he managed to blurt this out.
Quote:
SPITZER: All I need to say is in all the years I was there trying to bring these cases, every time I went before the House Financial Services Committee, they wanted to pre-empt me so we could not bring an enforcement action. It was kowtow. When bankers said jump, they said how high? It was the most outrageous--

He said some other things most here would agree with. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-tran....

We are suffering the ill effects of the corruption of our government, not just our financial services industry. If money is the functional equivalent of free speech, democracy is doomed. It takes money to be elected and being elected and re-elected is the prime directive of all politicians. When we see our government doing things that are clearly not in the public interest, you can bet that money, and promises of money are behind it. As long as money is free speech, our government will be corrupted by it, you and I will lose, and those with fat wallets will win. Even more important that reinstating Glass-Steagall, we must overturn Citizens United and do our damnedest to get big money out of politics. I agree with ending unsecured lending but am not as convinced as Gen is that it would solve the political corruption problem.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Genesis
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Quote:
Even more important that reinstating Glass-Steagall, we must overturn Citizens United and do our damnedest to get big money out of politics.

Horse****.

The President and members of Congress lie every single day using their free bully pulpit.

You wish to restrict the sales of amplifiers and speakers so only those who are elected can have them.

That's despotism, it's fraud and it's unconstitutional.

Go run that crap on Daily Kos.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Pika-steph
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Besides the fact that Citizens United WAS NOT ABOUT CORPORATE PERSONHOOD!

smiley

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
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"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Turningtide4536
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I'm a young guy (26), and I was trying to explain this "one dollar of capital" proposal to my grandfather (73). He told me that he didn't think economic growth was possible without easy-access credit money (in excess of real assets to "back it up").

While I respect my grandfather's opinion, I think he's wrong on this point. I guess he thinks it's "okay" to emit more money than should actually exist in order to "grease the wheels" of the economy, or keep things running smoothly for everyone. Maybe he or I am misunderstanding each other. He's a democrat, so that might be part of the problem.
Genesis
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It is.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Rjazz117
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His greasing of the wheels taxes everybody, as it devalues the rest of the money in the system the instant the greasing begins. It is basically theft...of the value lost by everybody else due to inflation of the money supply.

Since The Fed has been "in charge" of the money supply for some time now, and their stated policy is at least some degree of inflation, they are in fact, by stated policy, stealing from everybody that holds/uses USD.

At this point, the only group of people for which the economy is "running smoothly" is the bankers of The Fed and their cronies.

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“To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
Optimus2861
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Quote:
(Spitzer) said some other things most here would agree with

That's a howler. Your quote is probably the lone thing that Spitzer said that this crowd would agree with. Try this one on:

Quote:
SPITZER: Could we talk, instead of polls and focus groups, reality, what works in the economy? We have done the largest macroeconomic experiment in history. Europe tried austerity, which is Mitt Romney's. They're going to depression, recession, it has failed.

What we tried here under Barack Obama is Keynesian economics, restructure the economy, invest where you need to, it worked for 70 years, it will work in the next 100 years. That is what the public should focus on.

He even gets into full foaming-mouth Democrat mode:
Quote:

SPITZER: They want to go back to medieval medicine, the blood-letting, leeches. They want to go back to the very crazy economics that brought us over --

MATALIN: What are you talking about, Eliot?

SPITZER: -- the cliff and created a cataclysm.

Spitzer may see the banks correctly, but that's about all. The rest of the time, he's as hard-core a Democrat socialist as they come. The man's from New York, after all. Genuine conservatives are damn near an extinct species there.
Wineaux
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I am on the fence with support for the idea of ‘one dollar of capital’ because additional regulation doesn’t seem to be an effective way to control entities that have explicit guarantees from government.

I would prefer to see three things changed immediately:

1) Overturn Gramm-Leach-Biley
2) Re-instate Glass Stegall
3) Remove FDIC insurance

We need a movement where the average person does due diligence with the banking institution of his/her choice. The current system is set up where this doesn’t make a damn difference because of the safety nets created by government. You wouldn't hire any shmuck off the street to fix your roof and the same should hold true with banking.

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What wine goes with unemployment?

Genesis
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If you allow the counterfeiting then the so-called "diligence" is impossible because those frauds will be concealed and used to strip depositors of every nickel they have.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Peterm99
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Wineaux -

"Due diligence" is fine in concept but is not realistically feasible for most people unless it is accompanied by full and complete disclosure of everything related to the banks' finances. Given the current state of corporate governance, etc., I suggest that having FDIC insurance in limited amounts, e.g., 100k as it used to be, is a good idea. It makes banking the equivalent of a public utility for those who need only the checking/savings function of banks.

True "due diligence" would require the elimination of all financial shenanigans, e.g., mark to fantasy, off-balance-sheet stuff, etc., and also complete transparency into the details of all of a bank's holdings, investments, deposits, loans outstanding, operations and governance details, etc., etc. - the currently available financial info needed for realistic due diligence is not available to most people, and certainly not in anything even approaching a real-time basis.

Unless the transparency becomes real and continuous, elimination of FDIC-type insurance is harmful, IMO.

ETA: Thanks, Gen. - short, sweet, and to the point. As usual, I take too long in composing and typing my replies.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Marvinmartian
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Wineaux wrote..

1) Overturn Gramm-Leach-Biley
2) Re-instate Glass Stegall
3) Remove FDIC insurance


The problem is that bank managers get their bonuses based on taking risk. This is completely against the interests of bondholders, which buy bank's bonds on the idea of "less risk".

Large banks look more and more like hedge funds making one way bets, not deposit taking institutions.

Example: JPM and its alleged "hedging losses".
Nomennescio
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Steelhead,
Money is in politics because of the power and influence it buys. You want to get the big money out of politics? Limit the power of the government!
Wineaux
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Pterm said...
Quote:
unless it is accompanied by full and complete disclosure of everything related to the banks' finances.


We should be demanding this but can’t get their under the current system because of FDIC insurance. This single change would act as wake-up call for people who conduct business with the TBTF. Depositors would be responsible for their decisions (which don’t matter today) and be able to hold bankers accountable to provide full disclosure of finances prior to committing any money.

Pterm said....
Quote:
It makes banking the equivalent of a public utility for those who need only the checking/savings function of banks.


Yes, it should be a public utility for the far majority. If you remove the FDIC insurance in theory there would be demand for banking institutions which ONLY conduct checking / savings functions as people would seek a “safe” place to park their dollars. This is not bad, it’s good.

Marvinm said...
Quote:
The problem is that bank managers get their bonuses based on taking risk.


**** them. The bubble has to pop and their standard of living has to revert to mean.

Gen said...
Quote:
If you allow the counterfeiting then the so-called "diligence" is impossible because those frauds will be concealed and used to strip depositors of every nickel they have.


Wouldn’t the reinstatement of Glass-Stegall significantly curtail the amount of counterfeiting?

If FDIC is removed and we get to a point and have a series of banks which are “public utility”, we starve the beast. This is accomplished because who would want the risk of doing business with those institutions which pose a systemic risk. What would JPM, Citi, or BOA look like if 70% of their depositors jumped ship?

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What wine goes with unemployment?
Peterm99
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Wineaux wrote..
We should be demanding this (full and complete disclosure of everything related to the banks' finances) but can’t get their under the current system because of FDIC insurance.
Cart/horse. Getting them in the wrong order could be devastating to the wealth of most people - even more devastating than currently.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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