NBA Market: Sell It
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-03 07:08
by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings
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NBA Market: Sell It
 

It's time folks.

Back in late 2007 and early 2008, to the guffaws of basically everyone in response, I noted that contrary to Cramer's "Horsemen" (Remember them?) the emergence of a "fabulous four" stocks that were responsible for a huge percentage of the market's advance meant it was time to sell, not buy, and if you were aggressive it was time to short.

That turned out to be exactly right -- the market subsequently crashed.

We're there again, except this time it's one stock that is responsible for a monstrous percentage of the index gains: Apple.

It isn't going to work this time any better than it did last time.

This sort of "coiled spring" effect, where rotation piles the gains into an increasingly-narrow piece of the market, essentially always ends up with a calamity. 

It is precisely because the premise of such a shift in the market is that one leads all; in other words, one firm's market gains on the belief that the business is advancing will inexorably lead to the general economy expanding and improving, is and always has been false.

It doesn't work that way. 

It never has, and it never will.

Inevitably 499 (or 99) opinions are right and the one (or four) are wrong.  Inevitably the market succumbs to this blatant imbalance and collapses.  2000 and 2008 are the most-ridiculous examples in recent memory, but not the only ones.

In 2006 you had some time left, as many stocks took big "dips" in the summer only to roar back.  But there the leadership was broad-based and solid.  Earnings were being ratcheted up as were expectations.

Now we've got the opposite -- earnings expectations published by companies themselves are not being ratcheted up.  Instead, we have touts on the bought and paid-for media issuing ever-more-ridiculous price targets simply predicated on the fact that their last one got run over.

It's time to sell folks.  The money is not yours until it is reduced to cash.

Yeah, this might be a bit early.

But it's not wrong.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info NBA Market: Sell It in forum [Market-Ticker]
Striker754
Posts: 671
Incept: 2009-07-09

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Will they ever let the air out of the market? It's been three years now people have been calling for doomsday and the market and continued to go up. AAPL's dollar volume a day is $25B. That doesn't seem insurmountable for the street/Fed to manipulate. If things are concentrated in one stock, how does that not make things easier for them to manipulate the whole market?

I think they were cocky during the housing bubble and 2008 caught them offguard and they don't want it to happen again. Low rates and a high stock market are two of the things they have chosen to defend.

JMHO
Richard112360
Posts: 610
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Just my opinion, I don't think TPTB will allow the stock market to go down in any substantial way until after the November elections.
Christiangustafson
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Oh?

Problem is, we will hit the debt ceiling again in late summer, in market crash season.

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It is therefore, on opinion only that government is founded... -- Hume
Bluebird
Posts: 1381
Incept: 2008-05-02
Silver
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Prior to the 2008 election, the market had several down days. Just saying.

edit to add link for the market's largest point changes. Look at 2008...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lar....

Andyc
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-24


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I wonder when Ben will finally lose control of interest rates.


http://www.moneynews.com/Headline/fed-de....
Richardebel
Posts: 96
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Where is this going?
Inline
J0nx
Posts: 3068
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Don't forget that before the last election the market took a major **** nap and then TARP was passed. Americans then reelected most of the same cretins that voted for TARP. Handily...

Either diebold is outright stealing elections or Americans are ****ing retards. My guess is a little of both.

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The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it.
Drench
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Naw, AAPL's totally goin over a thousand before next April & ****.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03....

(There is no debt ceiling. There is only Zuul.)

Novid
Posts: 92
Incept: 2010-06-25

Philadelphia
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My friends who have some apple stock are not going to be happy. there saying iphone 5 coming soon, why sell?
Genesis
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OK, don't. smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Flyingillini
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I think you are a little early. Ben-d-them-over will do everything he can to keep it up (LOL) until after the election.
Mayorquimby
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I don't buy that argument. Romney is not going to be anything but pro-Wall Street himself.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Pooslinger
Posts: 4393
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Great Warning! Karl, I applaud you for remaining focused during this period. I'm still enjoying my time off but I suspect I'll be back in the saddle soon....smiley
Steelhead23
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I would expect to see some signs prior to the collapse. I have no idea how to see some of these signs, but this is what I would expect: an uptick in shorting, a ramp in commodities, perhaps even a dive in the dollar as those in the know head for the exits. A market crash is NOT going to kill the vulcans and if you know what they are about, you know the future.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Genesis
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Yes, everyone always gets fair warning and is perfectly fine waiting for it before it happens.

(Just like the last time?)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Randy123
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I am riding the 4 horsemen to the moon! Early retirement awaits.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Inkt2002
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Karl has been a good contrarian indicator for Apple stock thus far, but current market price seems way to frothy
Mannfm11
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This is a wedge. It is almost always an ending move and the retrace is swift. Worn out autos are driving this economy as much as anything. The export markets are getting worse economically. Europe is out of credit. china has run out of useful stuff to build. The oil markets are cornered and the US government is making one blunder after another. The longer this mess goes on, the worse the reaction.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Sparticlebrane
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Quote:
Worn out autos are driving this economy as much as anything.

So then you are saying it is a great time to get a new car? smiley
Eaglewwit
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My thoughts:

AAPL could crack only because it is held by so many hedge funds who may rush to the exit, however that is only true if the market is not being manipulated.

The Debt Ceiling thing will go down like this:

They hit the ceiling before the election making it only a political theater act. Like the last time Timmah will be able to play a whole host of tricks to fund the government through the election. Of course the outcome of the election will mean nothing because either way the debt ceiling will be raised, only the reasoning for doing it will be different.
Jubber
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short @63158

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Nuke_engineer
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Good catch, KD.

Remember folks, that cash may not be always mean safety and the same goes for gold, physical or otherwise. Where the cash is kept may be even more critical this time. A possible diversification might be:

1. Physical Gold
2. Physical Money
3. Cash
4. Ammunition
5. Pistols/Rifles
6. Water/food
7. Safe
8. etc.....pay off your mortgage if possible! Be debt free...

This is an election year and the bears will be fighting everything thrown at them by the politicians and government incompetents living off your future sitting in office. The only way the crash comes is if the dike fails in a place they don't expect it to come and the resulting mess happens too quickly for the banksters and MSM to cover it up with HFT and sheeple propaganda. IMHO I still believe that like 2007-2008, we'll get a series of small, minor surprise shocks before the big one appears suddenly. The small ones will be initiated from completely unexpected events that the central banks and politicians don't expect and can't react to quickly enough.

I also think we need to add a natural disaster into the mix and hurricane season isn't upon us yet. After Easter, I think the season will kick in a little early and be very wicked this year.

I wonder if the banksters have already started a Auto Title Backed Securities market? Doing the same thing with auto/truck loans as they did with real estate?

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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.

Steelhead23
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Gen, I am not disagreeing with you so much as I am suggesting that big money will begin to reposition itself prior to the market crash. That is, I am seeing the market as wildly manipulated. Yes, the market is floating on helium, but why are you so certain that 30 days from now or so, Bernanke wouldn't unleash another barrage of buying? The big dogs absolutely control him, you know.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Sunkeye
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Incept: 2010-12-14
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oh i love kd no sarc neither
respect the bandwidth and the passion
but ...

back in spg 99 when i was a johnny one lot trading the emini
yessir i was gonna make my million
1lot --> 2lots --> 4lots --> 8lots ...
oh man it was gonna be bee-u-t-ful

my 60 min 30 min 3 min charts and stochastics
became 30 min 10 min 2 min
became 9 min 3 min 1 min

oh and before the opening took up reading sun tsu like it was bible passages

ha i lasted < 60 days

and by then was COMPLETELY shell shocked
absolutely convinced that every move i made was EXACTLY the wrong one

see the point im going for is imho it's all about the mo
and my hat's off to anybody can figure out the timing

kd has the fundies down no doubt
but it's timing timing timing
that'll break yer heart and bust yer bank

i look at aapl and just chuckle ...

peace & love

btw i also chuckle at the iheads love for jobs
ha dude made rockefeller and ford look like mao and chavez

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now for me it's say hi to coworkers what's new to friends hug the kids and roses
for the wife and oh yeah stop to smell them too (& that part most of all)

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