Oh Greece Is Over Eh? (Hint: No It Isn't)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-02 08:25
by Karl Denninger
in International
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Oh Greece Is Over Eh? (Hint: No It Isn't)
 

Heh heh heh....

Investors in Greek bonds issued under foreign law rejected the nation’s attempts to restructure the debt at talks last week.

In 20 out of 36 meetings, bondholders either turned down the government’s proposal, adjourned the talks or failed to achieve a quorum, according to a press release today from the Greek Public Debt Management Office.

But but but.... I thought they all got crammed down?

Nope!  There are a bunch of these bonds outstanding that were not issued under Greek law (which Greece simply retroactively changed.)  These were issued under various foreign laws, mostly UK, and under them there is no provision to be retroactively changed as the UK isn't, obviously, Greece.

The key points here are that should Greece pay in full then the people who held Greek-issue bonds are going to howl after being screwed out of 70% of their money, and if they don't pay then the next question is "what happens next?"  Suing a sovereign is always a lot of fun, especially when you have to try to collect in the nation in question should you win.

Let's not forget that on top of this bit of fun we have a Greek election that is sure to compound the games. 

In any event those who believe that the Greek situation is "over" have rocks in their head.  Not only is it not over, but Ireland is being squeezed:

(Reuters) - The European Central Bank cut Ireland no slack on its push to reschedule payments on 27 billion euros worth of high-interest IOUs, leaving Dublin to lobby other lenders that mounted a rescue to ease the pain of its bailout cost.

The Irish need to tell the banksters to shove it.

What are they going to do about it? 

The ECB signalled it could accept no slippage in the repayment schedule, saying in a statement issued on the eve of a weekend meeting of European finance officials that: "It is of utmost importance that the commitments of the Irish state are met in line with standing contracts and agreements.

The Irish need to grow a pair of balls, to be blunt.  It's time for these nations and their citizens to make a few points:

  • You don't own us.  If you don't like the fact that you lent money foolishly, and this means you won't get paid back, that's unfortunate.  But it also changes nothing. 

  • If you try to force us to pay we will force you to leave.  Politically and diplomatically if possible, violently if necessary.

Sovereign nations by definition are under the dominion of the people, not the other way around.  Foreign "entanglements" such as a foreign central bank or other nation that thinks it has some sort of dominion over the citizens of a sovereign nation, or a private central bank that is in fact not a government instrumentality are nothing other than unsecured creditors. 

When an unsecured creditor makes a bad loan and the debtor fails to pay the creditor is stuck with the loss and is forced to eat it.

Any creditor who tries to change this natural order of things, irrespective of who it is, needs to be ejected by whatever means are necessary. 

Market discipline requires that foolish lending leads to losses.  If you are dumb enough to loan someone money that they cannot repay -- that is, you paid no attention to their capacity on a forward basis to meet their obligations -- then you deserve to lose your investment.

If you then attempt to engage in extortion of a nation and her people to obtain payment the proper response is literally "off with their heads!"

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User Info Oh Greece Is Over Eh? (Hint: No It Isn't) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Asimov
Posts: 103906
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Good bit of detail on ZH about this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-set....

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Zarathustra
Posts: 5953
Incept: 2009-04-29
Silver A True American Patriot!
Funkytown
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We've been discussing Greece for months right here....

http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-w....

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3590
Incept: 2008-08-19

Farmingdale, NY
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Ireland needs to decide if they are their own sovereign nation...or a bitch to rest of Europe.

And they need to do this immediately. **** the banks!

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Andyc
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-24


Banned
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So much for "voluntary haircuts"

I was wondering who these "volunteers" were
Richardebel
Posts: 96
Incept: 2010-11-15

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If you make a bad investment you should eat the loss, not matter who you are. There should be no question about this, unless you would rather have fasism instead of capitalism. The fools who are investing in Greek debt expect to get a high return at no risk to themselves. They think they should be given special treatment, while the rest of us have to accept negative returns in exchange for the safety of our money. I see no other outcome from this insanity other than a complete collapse our whole economy. To use a phrase of the late Winston Churchill; everyone feeds the alligator hoping that it will eat them last.
Delapaz
Posts: 61
Incept: 2009-04-29

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Ireland is not a sovereign nation. It's a willing and subservient EU colony. If it walks like a duck, if it quacks like a duck...

The weird thing is is that the EU has no army worthy of the name, so as Gen points out, all Ireland has to say is get lost and the EU could do nothing.

So why Ireland puts up with it is a headscratcher to us. Unless... it's as simple as a message to the Irish political class: "Pay up or you can forget partying in Davos next year."
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 1041
Incept: 2009-04-16
Gold
California Desert
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I'll ask this again (last time was when this issue came up back in Feb I think), what or how do the bankers really think they are going to collect on this from Greece, and Ireland and eventually Italy, Portugal? Through the NATO troops? Does Germany send troops in to foreign countries to collect / enforce? Or, does Panetta send US troops in to do it instead since hey, you know they don't need the authorization of Congress anymore, right???

Where does this stop..I mean physically stop? The banker cabal will continue to try to do this through clandestine political means (or maybe not so clandestine actually), but at some point politics turns to action. This is what is in store for US as well at some point or another.

Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1562
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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The majority of Europeans still cling to the notion that if they are citizens of any sovereign state at all, it is the sovereign state of Europe - although they would prefer to be mere citizens of the world. The idea of a nation-state defined by borders, language and culture is passé to them. The question is whether the debt crisis disabused them of that notion or cements Europe together - a big step on the road to world government.
Httpview
Posts: 42
Incept: 2010-01-19

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typo?: "won't get paid paid back"
Wootendw
Posts: 38
Incept: 2010-01-28

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Starve the government. If you work in the private sector, take a day off without pay and do some untaxable work around the house - or join a protest. Buy whatever you can second-hand so as to avoid sales tax. Stop loaning the government money - don't buy bonds. And start a new political party and call it the 'Public Debt Repudiation Party' with the campaign promise "We're not paying!". That should throw a scare into the bond markets and bring down the government.
Peterm99
Posts: 4981
Incept: 2009-03-21
Gold
SoCal
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Jwm-in-sb wrote..
. . . how do the bankers really think they are going to collect on this . . .
Given how banksters control our and many other gov'ts, would it be unreasonable to expect the US, Germany, etc. to cause initiation of widespread economic sanctions, embargoes, and similar on the nations unwilling to divert a large chunk of their national wealth to the repayment of their debts? At some point, national austerity to pay onerous debts while getting an oil/food/whatever supply becomes a better alternative for a debtor nation than no debt repayment while on the losing end of a total economic embargo.

I'm thinking here along the lines of official UN Security Council sanctioned embargoes of petroleum, etc., etc. initiated on the basis of "an orderly functioning of the world economy requires national commitments to be honored" with the US bribing/threatening the necessary nations to get them to vote for these sanctions. (It has been claimed (and, if one believes Wikileaks, proven) that the US has bribed and/or threatened other nations to vote the US way in previous matters.)

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Susanjbear
Posts: 417
Incept: 2010-06-10
Gold
Salt Lake City, Utah
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The Irish are now in a showdown with their own government over the household tax. Some 61% of households have boycotted and refused to pay. That's impressive, and much in keeping with their tradition, like the old tithe wars from the 1830's and the land wars from the 1880's. Imagine if we had an action like that in the US!

Now Taoiseach Enda Kenny has to go after the non-payers with penalties but how is he going to do so and how far will he get? He is being held up as a hypocrite, with this quote attributed to him:

"It is morally wrong, unjust and unfair to tax a persons home"
- Enda Kenny, 1994

This is what the fuss is about - paying Anglo-Irish bondholders:
http://www.thejournal.ie/kenny-deflects-....

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Susan
Morla
Posts: 815
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
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Susanjbear, that's because the Irish have Vincent Browne:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnG0bq77N....

They get the same BS the rest of Europe gets, but fortunately in Ireland that BS "isn't good enough". Sure you can promise to tax your people into poverty, but good luck actually doing it. That's how this all ends, they simply cannot do what they're trying to do. All they've really done is make promises, then make promises to make more promises. These central planning morons are playing musical chairs in an empty room, wonder how long those D batteries in the boom-box will last..

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?

Rmonical
Posts: 2782
Incept: 2007-07-04
Green A True American Patriot!
Glendale AZ
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"...but Ireland is being squeezed:"

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepo....

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The truth is out there
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