Volcker: Raise Taxes Now
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-16 09:24
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Volcker: Raise Taxes Now
 

Oh look here, someone who can balance a checkbook!

In a speech Wednesday that Volcker himself said was intended to be "a little provocative," he challenged U.S. leaders to go further in raising taxes and cutting spending than suggestions laid out by bipartisan deficit-cutting commissions and panels.

"The problem is the United States can no longer claim unchallenged leadership over the world economy," Volcker said at the Economy Summit sponsored by The Atlantic. "We have to do better . . . only a strong economy can ensure our political strength and national security."

Yeah well, there's a problem with that Paul, and you know damn well what it is.  We've got a GDP that doesn't represent actual demand.  Instead, it's been "goosed" for the last four years sequentially borrowing more and more money, sending false demand signals.

There's a difference between a short-term rescue and structural spending as well.  Unfortunately our structural deficit games go back to 2001 post-9/11 and encompass both Democrats and Republicans.

Structural deficit spending is a massive problem and it is how Greece got in trouble.  It's also how virtually every other nation that has found itself in the middle of a debt crisis got there.  When false demand signals become embedded in the economy they then become politically impossible to remove, as the entire compounded effect of them over time will immediately come off.

Economic advisers thus strongly recommend that politicians do no such thing, as they are well-aware that withdrawal of the false demand will lead to an instant economic Depression and that, of course, leads to immediate loss of power (through electoral defeat.)

In short you have a bunch of lawmakers that are drunk on power and are willing to wantonly, recklessly and intentionally violate their oath of office along with violating the people for their own personal aggrandizement and power.

Am I surprised? No.

But can this sort of thing avoid the inevitable -- that which awaits all who try to abuse compound growth functions?  Nope.

I expect Volcker to be ignored for the same reason that everyone else is ignored in this regard, right up until the math forces contraction in government services, increased taxes or both -- Volcker is well-aware that every dollar of tax increase is a dollar that doesn't get spent in the economy, since deficit reduction through tax increases is a net GDP negative on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

He's right, but he's also being disingenuous in that Tall Paul is not putting numbers to paper and pointing out exactly how much government must contract or taxes must rise (or some combination of the two) to restore balance. 

That's probably because we're talking about a doubling of taxes or a 50% reduction -- or more -- in federal spending.

Best of luck with the path we're on folks.

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User Info Volcker: Raise Taxes Now in forum [Market-Ticker]
Fraudster
Posts: 4171
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Silver
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Quote:
The problem is the United States can no longer claim unchallenged leadership over the world economy


That is going to seem completely sacrilegious to most people but it is very true. This also means that the Dollar's days as the reserve currency are numbered.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Harrisonact
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canada
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Do 30 yr. t's have a ballon payment at maturity? The principle?

If they do, is that more major ****age for the USA? Is Volcker telegraphing the need for revenue to cover those 18% t's from 1981-82?

It wouldn't surprise me. It was him setting those rates and he probablty wants to keep his legacy clean seeing how both Greenspan and BB are viewed as *******s now.

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Vitchilo
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Quote:
Is Volcker telegraphing the need for revenue to cover those 18% t's from 1981-82?

Can you imagine 18% today??? Mwahahahaha.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Richardebel
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He suggests that there will be no change in direction until after the election, and that we should initiate tax changes in the direction of a consumption tax. He states that we should not undermine "Military Strength". Somehow the "Military Industrial Complex", which Eisenhower warned against always gets priority. My question is: Why?

I see no real hope for Volkers plan. Just more of the same, only more so! Robin Hood in reverse!
Tank
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An unstoppable force (political power) meets an immovable object (the math). In this case, the unstoppable force will just blow up?

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"A danger foreseen is half avoided." -Thomas Fuller (1608-1661)

Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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A country which issues its own currency and only has debts dominated in that same currency can never go bankrupt. Now that doesn't mean its citizens won't starve while they do it.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Genesis
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Oh yes it can.

The number of units of a currency you have is immaterial. All that matters is what they buy.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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I define bankrupt as not being able to pay the interest on the debt owed or pay the debt off at maturity. I don't think that can happen when you can just add a zero.

Now if you define bankrupt as not being able to buy goods and services on the global market with your currency then sure the US Government could be declared functionally bankrupt and others could refuse its currency for exchange. That could happen. I’m still not sure that means the US is bankrupt through. Might it mean I can’t buy electronics from China? Sure. Might it mean I starve because Cargill sold all the wheat to another county who was willing to pay using a stable currency? Sure. Bankrupt where they miss an interest payment or are forced to contract the money supply? I don’t see it.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister

Richardebel
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Is our currency any worse off than the other sovereign currencies? Maybe it will all distill down to who is the most bankrupt, and whoever is left standing when the game is over. Isn't this the material that Wars are made of?
Arius
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Taxes must NOT be raised unless you want a nasty Depression. We need to cut the Welfare/Warfare/Regulatory State in half, then cut taxes. Will it be painful, yes it will. Will it happen, no. Can we depend on our fearless public leaders to do the right thing, no. Are we royally scr**ed, YES.
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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I think that we will have to print at some point. God help us when they do. We could have printed our way out of this problem years ago and balanced our budget and been in a much better spot today. Maybe that's what we should do now. Just print and pay off everybody. Then because we'll no longer be able to borrow we would just live within our means. It would suck but it's as good as what they're doing now.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Antone
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TMD, you're in support of hyperinflation? Wow.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Coondog
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Rather than raise taxes, a better solution is to cut spending.

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"The purpose of all political action should be to promote liberty. We should always maintain the conviction that free people will be able to take care of all of their needs. When government gets involved, it can do things with a lot of good intentions, but it cannot do so without undermining our liberties." - Ron Paul
Themortgagedude
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Not that I'm in support of hyperinflation. Just willing to face reality. We are so ****ed that we might as well just bite the bullet.

Disclosure : I do own farmland. I won't get hurt too badly. Not that it's fair to those holding dollars. That's the real conundrum is how to do this and distribute the pain equitably. You know the big boys don't want the pain so my plan is worthless.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Marvinmartian
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There is a book circa 2004 that provides a preview of the current entitlement mess.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Generat....

There is a sequel to be published next week:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0262016....


Its interesting that one of the authors is now running for president:
http://kotlikoff2012.org/

No one wants to see/hear the bearer of bad news, so I dont think his prescription will get the hearing it deserves, at least in 2012.
Asimov
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Quote:
Isn't this the material that Wars are made of?


Yea, and the only reason it hasn't tipped over into another really big one since ww2 is nukes. No other warfare technique or technology has ever had the effect it has.

Sure there have been "superweapons" before (only super in relation to other weapons of the time), like crossbows or gunpowder, but that was still individuals killing individuals, and the people who started big wars didn't care about the individual.

Now it's different. The people who started big wars in the past want nothing to do with them now because they're actually at threat.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Etz
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Very naive indeed. There'll be plenty of time to raise taxes once banskters' puppet is past the election.

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Asimov
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The whole talk of raising taxes is stupid when the historical record shows that at somewhere around 20-25% (average), people just stop working as much and you end up with LESS revenue.

Cutting spending - MASSIVELY - is the only way to survive.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Mdporter
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San Jose, CA
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Raise Taxes Now works pretty well for the 50% of the people who pay nothing in taxes, right?

How about we cut spending now instead.

Does Volcker really have any credibility these days anyways?
Mac
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Raising taxes now is absolutely insane. The productive are already taxed to the damned hilt as it is. The ONLY way out of this is to take a damned chainsaw to the Federal and State governments and CUT LIKE HELL!

We can't keep paying for the FSA. It just isn't possible. I suspect we're going to see Cal and Ill demonstrate what it's like to do a full-scale fiscal meltdown in the not too distant future. Those collapses will come before the Fed's. Maybe those little demonstrations will scare enough people into realizing it's time to cut back to something we can reasonably afford at the Fed level.

Karl's right. If you're not in good health now you'd better start trying to get that way quick along with having your finances sorted out. My advice would also be that if you're over 50 and you're not out of debt, you'd better spend every available minute you have getting there. If you over 50 and are out of debt, never again even consider going so much as a buck in the hole. Your time for doing that kind of thing reasonably is past and has been so since probably 2008. Hunker down and preserve your assets because things that used to be taken for granted are going to be much more costly in the future.
Mortgageguymn
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We can't "solve" our problem by "printing" unless we no longer need to borrow. If we could successfully shift our national debt entirely onto long-term bonds (like the 100 year bonds the UK wants to sell), THEN we could hose over our creditors (icluding Americans) by devaluing the currency overnight through printing. If we keep our debt on short-term bills & notes, then the interest rate spike that would accompany the printing would defeat the purpose.

We should only raise taxes on the "rich" if we can raise them on EVERYONE. None of this "only raise taxes on the top 2%" crap. The only way we'll get a groundswell against spending is if everyone feels (through higher taxes) the pain of wasteful government spending. As long as people think they can get their free stuff by taxing only the rich guy behind the tree, they'll keep trying that route.

We're screwed no matter what, it would appear.
Jslique
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Online
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The banks have so much power now and will want there money back. When not if it all goes bad they will suck the country for all its got.
Rickl
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I've never doubted for a moment that the massive increase in spending over the past few years was done with the intent of creating a fait accompli. Then they come back and tell us, "Well, we have no choice but to raise taxes now, or else the whole economy will blow up."

Marxists have always targeted the "bourgeoisie" (middle class) for confiscation and destruction. Our country is absolutely infested with them. Despite all their class warfare rhetoric about "the rich" and "the 1%", their aim has always been to strip the middle class of its wealth and property. Historically, in America, middle class people have tended to be productive, confident, and independent. Such people tend to insist on their rights and their liberty. The tyrants cannot tolerate that, so they want to make us impoverished, fearful, and dependent instead.

I've linked this graphic before, and it bears repeating:


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We are so far past and beyond the “long train of abuses and usurpations” that the Colonists and Founders experienced and which necessitated the Revolutionary War that they aren’t even visible in the rear-view mirror.
~ Ann Barnhardt
Xqqme
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Rickl is correct. Great nations throughout history crumble in the same manner, from within.
Raising taxes will only result in LOWER revenue.
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks (NBER Working Paper No. 13264), authors Christina Romer and David Romer :
"Tax changes have very large effects: an exogenous tax increase of 1 percent of GDP lowers real GDP by roughly 2 to 3 percent."

Pre Laffer Curve by about 600 years-
"It should be known that at the beginning of a dynasty, taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments. At the end of the dynasty, taxation yields a small revenue from large assessments.
'Abd-ar-Rah.mân Abû Zayd ibn Khaldûn (1332-1406)

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