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| Japan Teeters, Nobody Pays Attention in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Truthseeker
Posts: 8476
Incept: 2007-10-07
NorCal
Online
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Between your commentary (going back to the Tsunami) and Kyle Bass's extensive commentary on Japan's situation, ANYONE being "surprised" by their coming implosion is simply not paying attention.
Basic arithmetic.
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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
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Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
NKY
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So I'm guessing this is one item that is NOT priced in?
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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
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Spanktron9
Posts: 2774
Incept: 2009-03-13
Reality.
Online
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Yeah, Truth, Kyle has been on this for over a year. Don't recall him commenting on the effects of the Tsunami, but the demographics and debt-to-GDP figures made the collapse/default inevitable. By my rough calculations from his answers, we should see Japan go Ka-Boom later this year.
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"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark
"Mo'lon La'be"- Leonidas
"Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe
"Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
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Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Cleveland
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I definitely do not think it is priced in. There's a double whammy going on right now - negative trade balance AND the BoJ has recently adopted the Fed's approach of publicly targeted inflation (1%). Together I don't see how JGBs continue to stay a 1 handle for long and as Bass has noted just 2% puts Japan in an unsustainable world of hurt. Further slowdown in Europe might be all it takes to tip them over.
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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4183
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Japan, GB, France, Spain, Italy, US - every damn western economy in the world is headed right for the same wall and I believe it’s some kind of historic global reset without war. I have no idea what that looks like but the sooner we hit it the better as far as I'm concerned.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Flyanddive
Posts: 578
Incept: 2008-10-10
Detroit
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Thailand had a -9% GDP print last night for last quarter and their stock market rallied on news of the Greek bailout. Market is completely ****ed up.
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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
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Lowbeyond
Posts: 16899
Incept: 2008-02-11
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
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Etz
Posts: 13890
Incept: 2007-06-26
LA
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Nonsense. Japan went ZIRP 13 years ago and began its QE campaign almost 11 years ago; news of their success should be arriving aaaaaaaaaaaany day now.
/sarc
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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.
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Blutach
Posts: 21
Incept: 2011-12-29
Oak Brook, IL
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US debt/GDP 100%+
Japan debt/GDP 200%+
UK debt/GDP 1,000%+
We have a long way to go. PAINFULLY LONG WAY. This can WILL BE KICKED. Kicked again, then Kicked some more.
We probably won't see the collapse in any of our lifetimes. Boring world we live in!
I cannot afford to stay out of stocks. All my friends got rich since the lows in March 2009 while I sat on the sidelines and was called a 'doomer'. Gotta BTFD!
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Bill Still 2012!
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Obseedian
Posts: 11872
Incept: 2007-07-26
BBRY Central
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Is that $18 billion for the MONTH? 
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Smacktle
Posts: 1362
Incept: 2009-01-20
Texas
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No problem, they just drink more sake.
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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
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127001
Posts: 3516
Incept: 2008-05-21
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it's teetered for more than a decade. why is this time different?
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4183
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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It's not until it is. Why does a bridge pick a day to collapse? Why do markets crash?
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Lowbeyond
Posts: 16899
Incept: 2008-02-11
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
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Jubber
Posts: 14078
Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Isn't Japan's external debt just 8%
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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
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Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Cleveland
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That sounds about right Jubber. They have no external buyers because they rightfully think 1% yield sucks. The tipping point occurs when the internal demand for 1% paper dries up
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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
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Jtmo3
Posts: 679
Incept: 2009-07-31
Missouri
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Printing press. It's working fore every other freakin country with one. Why not them for a while longer?
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Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14
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I am viewing Japan, US, UK, Europe as a group of mountain climbers who are all roped together and all hanging on by their fingertips. When one finally lets go its going to take all the others with it.
These countries as a whole are like an unstable explosive. You don't know when its going to go, but you are pretty sure that it will at some point. All it takes is just the right bump.
Flap
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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
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Anti
Posts: 4294
Incept: 2007-10-09
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Japan has some kick-ass infrastucture, built to stimulate their economy over the last many years. Too bad they spent that and now it is not available for rebuilding when and where it is really needed.
That is how I learned to save as a teenager. I had a car prone to catastrophic breakdowns. If I wasted a penny when it was "excess" I would soon regret it.
How could they forget they lived in an active earthquake zone?
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Pietertvl
Posts: 3591
Incept: 2007-12-05
NFA
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You can short JGBs here using JGBD, but its actually moving lower over the last week or so. I haven't read the prospectus, so I don't know how this pair (JGBL also) address currency hedging. But obviously, the recent news and/or policy moves has been pummeling the yen. So its conceivable that if the yen collapses, you might lose on the fx component too much to benefit from the bonds repricing. That is certainly how it appears at the moment.
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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams
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Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Region formerly known as the United States
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Nikkei continues (relative) rocket shot.
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Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Orlando, FL
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Gen, Quote:This has now happened, and it's very bad for the sustainability of Japan's budgetary situation, as they have a monstrous amount of debt outstanding. I am sure that as has been shown by 'Der Bernanke', the Japanese govt can solve this problem by printing up a few more Trillion yen. Because as we all know, and as Nobel Prize awarded Korupt..., er, Krugman trumpets, they just need more debt to solve their debt problem! /sarc 
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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics" they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!  Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression |
Nuke_engineer
Posts: 2698
Incept: 2007-08-19
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Quote:it's teetered for more than a decade. why is this time different? +100Quote:It's not until it is. Why does a bridge pick a day to collapse? Why do markets crash? +1000Quote:Printing press. It's working fore every other freakin country with one. Why not them for a while longer? +10In a market manipulated by central banks, banksters and politicians, TIMING is everything. Logic, common sense, science and mathematics are influences, but they take back seat to perception, corruption and influence. We must see the trigger(s) and the point of exhaustion when it's every central bank to fend for itself. All other prognostication and common sense is a warning and an intellectual stimulus for discussion, but in reality it is of no practical use. They will all help each other out until the water is up to their necks, then you'll see the great western economic ship go under. Not until then.
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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.
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Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14
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I'm with you Nuke. Here is the point that you have to remember, the game will go on as long as the players all think it is to their benefit to keep playing. If one player perceives that it is in their best interest to get out first, then the stampede (collapse) will be on.
Flap
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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
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