They're (Finally) Talking About It
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-18 14:28
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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They're (Finally) Talking About It
 

It has taken them two years, but finally we're hearing what I've said -- in one form or another -- about Greece and its options.

On Friday afternoon, Constantine Michalos, president of the Athens chamber of commerce, sat in his office – around the corner from where protesters were hurling chunks of marble at riot police – and contemplated what was once unthinkable: that Greece would default on its debt and then be forced into a messy exit from the euro.

Greece should default.

It does not, however, need to exit the Euro.  That's a separate decision and one that is not a foregone conclusion.

The usual argument is that if Greece exits the Euro and brings back the Drachma, its own currency, it can then devalue it and thus make itself "more competitive."  The problem with this meme is that it springs from a false premise -- that the denominator of one's currency somehow controls its purchasing power.

Nope.  It's simply a denominator.

Let's take two currencies.  One has 10,000 units outstanding.  The other 20,000.  Both groups of citizens produce with equal capability -- that is, one hour of labor by citizen #1 produces the same number of gallons of gasoline, flatscreen TVs, cups of coffee or medical procedures as are produced by citizen #2.

The external value of both citizens' labor -- that is, the value in international trade -- is exactly the same.

It thus does not matter whether you have 10,000 or 20,000 units of currency as the citizen living in the nation with the 20,000 units will have twice as many units, but each will buy only half as much.  His standard of living will not change.

What Greece is trying to evade is the fundamental mathematical truth that most western nations are currently trying to evade -- the unfortunate (but very real) fact that government cannot promise more in services than it takes in via taxes.  That is, the percentage of a nation's GDP that comprises redistribution is what has to be negotiated between government and the people, and then that percentage of redistribution must be paid for with current receipts via taxing someone.

This is all government does.  It is all government can ever do.  There are those who argue that government should "provide for people" but government is incapable of doing that.  Government can only force others to provide; standing alone, government itself produces exactly nothing.

Many have claimed that a default would be "disastrous" for Europe and indeed the entire world:

That view is by no means unanimous among Greece’s creditors. François Fillon, French prime minister, on Friday had a stinging rebuke for those who would consider it. “To put in play the default of Greece is completely irresponsible,” he told broadcaster RTL.

Stéphane Deo, European economist at UBS, warned that a Greek default could wreak havoc across the continent, including bank runs.

What's actually disastrous is promising people things you can't pay for.  This is what both Europe and the United States have done.  This is what must stop, and if it requires default and disorderly recognition that people have lent money with no reasonable expectation of ever being paid back, so be it.

What politicians should do is go to their respective people and tell them the truth -- We have made promises we cannot keep using money we don't have.  You must choose to either pay much higher taxes to bring what you give to government in line with what you demand government pay out, or what government pays out must be cut to conform to what you pay in.  At the same time you must accept that the GDP, and thus standard of living, you have become accustomed to was not in fact possible, as it was not purchased with your labor but rather with ever-increasing promises to pay tomorrow -- a mathematical impossibility.

There are no other options, because all other forms of attempted manipulation of the facts are nothing more than a geometric series of debt that cannot be sustained on an indefinite basis.

All government deficit spending does in fact is devalue everyone's standard of living.  That is why our standard of living here is going down, why real inflation-adjusted household income is declining and why "printing" or "devaluing" or other similar machinations have always and must always fail.  Government deficit spending is in fact nothing other than a tax dishonestly applied across the entire economy -- that is, across everyone, rich and poor -- that damages the actual available purchasing power of the people.

That Greece has been backed into this corner is both no surprise but is also an opportunity -- if we act now.  Yes, Greece should default.  But in doing so both Greece and the rest of the Western World should and indeed must bring government revenue in line with spending -- whether that is done through massive tax increases or massive cuts in spending is the proper and indeed only topic of debate.

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User Info They're (Finally) Talking About It in forum [Market-Ticker]
Truthseeker
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NorCal
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Genesis wrote..
You must choose to either pay much higher taxes to bring what you give to government in line with what you demand government pay out, or what government pays out must be cut to conform to what you pay in.


It will happen. And folks dependent on the current fallacy continuing will be slaughtered, literally and figuratively.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Bagbalm
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"French prime minister, on Friday had a stinging rebuke for those who would consider it. “To put in play the default of Greece is completely irresponsible,” he told broadcaster RTL."

That which can't be paid won't.
You can try to call it something else but it still won't be good payment.
Politicians lie almost like breathing. They want to call it something else or push the burden off on somebody else. It's past that.

To let Greece GET IN THIS POSITION was what was irresponsible.

Jumping off a cliff is irresponsible. Falling to your death after you leap is not irresponsible. It is physics.

Sean
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My wager is they get the bailout ... this time.

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
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Lemonaid
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They can "print" out of Greece. They can't "print" out of the rest of the PIIS.

I don't put it passed them, for all intents and purposes, they "print" out of Greece.

Do the same thing the FED did here. Which functionally acts like printing. They'll do it because it's "working" here...

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises

Infidel
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Can we dispense with the term "bailout" since it implies that the leak has been fixed. If you want to put this in perspective, they are looking a mom and dad in the eye and lying, telling them they can have all that was promised and turning to the child and telling them they are going to shove it up his/her ass and break it off while mom and dad afirm it with with a grin and a nod.

Greece is a conduit to the banks, nothing more. It's Goldman-AIG on a soveriegn level.

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"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.

Quads4444
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Default should force Greece to only spend what they can raise in tax revenue. Since no one will lend them money for a while.

But they can play games and continue the deficit spending by selling off national assets. Or they can play the same games that some cities are doing in America like selling off future parking meter revenues for up front cash. They can still play a lot of games. These games will buy them a little time at the expense of future revenue streams.
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
What's actually disastrous is promising people things you can't pay for.


Precisely. How many people saved little to none thinking that the would pay off their house and then live off of SS in their retirement? Now, the great all-knowing, all-caring government running short on its ability to deliver as promised.

If you have some savings or wealth get ready for the attempts to take it to make good on promises.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Poer
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Thanks Karl for putting this is terms that anyone should understand.
How people think this Ponzi world can continue is only if they are at the simpleton like thinking of someone who joins an Amway or other layered marketing company and believe the promises of how much they'll make- what they do not understand is it is a fleecing operation for their buy in money- that the guy or few at the top of the Pyramid are the only ones who make any big money- the Ponzi owners of the World finance system run the money system the same way with people believing in debt as the way up that Pyramid- but they are left at the bottom of it holding it up if they slave away making payments of interest income that otherwise could be used to build there own real structures and infrastructures.

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"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality." Nathaniel Branden in Ayn Rands 'Capitalism The Unknown Ideal'
Ktrosper
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Gen wrote..
This is what must stop, and if it requires default and disorderly recognition that people have lent money with no reasonable expectation of ever being paid back, so be it.

Gen, the amount of Greek debt is fairly small in the grand scheme of things.. What isn't small is the CDS written on it, right? Could their debt be insured 500 or 1000 times over???

Is that what this is all about? Tying themselves in prezels, trying to avoid declaring this situation a "default" at all costs so that they don't trigger claims?

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
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Lemonaid
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Quads, on the contrary, a hard default purges debt and creates a very favorable GDP to Debt ratio. We're not inhibited by credit scores here.

If you have capital Greece automatically comes out on top over the PIIS.

This is a dirty little secret the bankers won't say.

All the other countries defaulted are quietly getting the loans they want.

Money has to go somewhere.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises

Mac
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Karl, I've been writing to my Senators and Congressman for five years now about overspending. I've become strident and acerbic to the point where my worthless Dem Senators take three months to respond with a form letter. My Republican congressman, who actually has made some effort to cut spending, frankly tells me that he knows we're in deep trouble but that he can't make DC change by himself. The end of the road for us as a nation is fast approaching and it's impossible to miss what needs to be done for us to avoid going off the cliff. The only question is whether we can stop before we go flying off it. More and more I'm beginning to think you were right when you said, "We won't do this voluntarily; we're going to have to do it the hard way."

If I had fifteen seconds to tell the entire fedgov what I thought, I'd like to deliver the message with a 300 dB bullhorn at point-blank range. I'd tell them this: "CUTS, YOU WORTHLESS MOTHER****ERS, CUTS! BIG ONES!!! RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!! PRIMARY SURPLUS OR YOU'RE OUT ON YOUR LAZY, CORRUPT ASSES!!!!!!!

I'm sure I'm on a number of lists but one thing I can go to my grave knowing: I repeatedly and consistently told those bastards a) I knew what they were doing, b) that they were destroying the country through overspending, and c) that they were a contemptible lot for doing this to America. What a despicable political class we have. If the axiom that a people get the government they deserve is correct, then we must truly be a bunch of lazy, ignorant, corrupt fools.

Reason: typo
Stuart
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The bigger discussion is about ALL debts. Back in 2008, the debts of certain companies were made whole by our tax dollars to "save" the system. Now those companies are "allowed" to make huge profits which rewards their executives with large bonuses.

When we finally realize that ALL debt must be reset instead of picking winners and losers we will get back to a more sane, functioning society. The current system is beyond repair, sorry.
Jpg
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Does Greece, as a country overall, actually produce enough in goods and services to at least keep the entire populace in "three hots and a cot", or do they have to borrow just to import enough goods to survive?
Abn0rmal
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Jpg wrote..
Does Greece, as a country overall, actually produce enough in goods and services to at least keep the entire populace in "three hots and a cot", or do they have to borrow just to import enough goods to survive?
Do you mean just in the official economy or does the informal economy also count?
Donethat
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Not that anything ends well, but currency controls, VAT increases and currency changes are a finesse of the "contractual" benefits of the pensioned Greeks, ( both retired, those still on the payroll books, and the welfare state). Have you read the bit about how they instantly jack property taxes by adding them to the electric bill? Oh well, all those swimming pools never do show up either way.
Savingsaretheway
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No, the Greeks do not produce enough to avoid a complete Mad Max scenario in the event of a default, which would result in them becoming economically isolated from the world.

Greece is going to get the money. There is too much financial risk to the French and Germans for them not to give them the money.

They can probably extend and pretend with Greece for as long as they want. The EU doesn't care if the Greek people are reduced to eating dirt and wearing bed sheets through increasing austerity, as long as their government keeps making its payments.



Jpg
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Abn0rmal - "Everything" ... total actual output of the entire country, in any form.

In other words, if they export any surplus production they have, would they make enough to pay for any imports they can't live without?
Jpg
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Quote:
...wearing bed sheets ...

Toga! Toga! Toga!
Rickl
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Genesis wrote..
You must choose to either pay much higher taxes to bring what you give to government in line with what you demand government pay out, or what government pays out must be cut to conform to what you pay in.

The socialists and Obamunists have a simple answer for that: Pay much higher taxes. And despite all of their class warfare rhetoric about taxing the rich, the middle class (aka the "bourgeoisie") is the real target, because that's where the money is.


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We are so far past and beyond the “long train of abuses and usurpations” that the Colonists and Founders experienced and which necessitated the Revolutionary War that they aren’t even visible in the rear-view mirror.
~ Ann Barnhardt
Lynford1933
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The elite of Greece escape taxes much easier than here in the US. That means almost the entire burden of paying taxes for services falls on the middle and lower class even though the elite get most of the monetary benefits. See Greek shipping magnets and other rich Greeks that pay no taxes. I was stationed there many years ago. It really hasn’t changed much except with the Euro came a gigantic increase in wage/price/COL. It now costs more for basics in Greece and Turkey than ever as far as hours worked for a loaf of bread or shoes. Just like here.
Bagbalm
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Please look up the definitions of magnets and magnates.
Flyanddive
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When they can't or won't pay the CDS's watch the rates of the other PIIGS blow sky high. That's the real problem, once Italy goes, things get interesting.

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Jstanley01
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Savingsaretheway wrote..
Greece is going to get the money. There is too much financial risk to the French and Germans for them not to give them the money.

They can probably extend and pretend with Greece for as long as they want. The EU doesn't care if the Greek people are reduced to eating dirt and wearing bed sheets through increasing austerity, as long as their government keeps making its payments.
So the EU has to give Greece money so Greece can keep making payments to the EU? Uh okay. But why don't France and Germany just keep their money in the first place? Oh no, can't have that because their too-big-to-fails would fail.

Why can't people see it? IT HAS BEEN A PONZI SCHEME ALL ALONG! The whole point of the so-called bailouts has been, is, and will continue to be lending the banksters opportunities to grab their personal loot out from under the scam before it collapses, plain and simple. And if doing so bleeds out Greece and the whole EU, so be it.

Reread what Lemonaid posted above. That is the truth.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Savingsaretheway
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"But why don't France and Germany just keep their money in the first place? Oh no, can't have that because their too-big-to-fails would fail."

Another question that is frequently floated around is "why don't they just keep the money to bailout their banks instead of continuning to throw it down a black hole in Greece."

The answer is that it's MUCH cheaper to bail out the banks indirectly by bailing out Greece than it would be to bail them out directly after letting Greece fail.

As we saw in 2008, there is absolutely no transparency in the CDS market and noone knows what the true extent of the counter party payouts would be in a sovereign default scenario. The Germans and French, as well as the British and Americans, are not willing to find out.


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