Robert Reich: More Ponzi Damnit! (UC Berzerkley?)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-11-10 16:53
by Karl Denninger
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Robert Reich: More Ponzi Damnit! (UC Berzerkley?)
 

The Keynes adherents would be a bit more interesting if they were less predictable.

On planet Washington, where reducing the federal budget deficit continues to be more important than creating jobs, everyone is talking about “triggers” that automatically go into effect if certain other things don’t happen.

Yet no one is talking about the most obvious trigger of all — no budget cuts until the official level of unemployment falls to 5 percent, its level before the Great Recession.

What if it never does?  There's no evidence that it will, you know.

Here's the problem, in a nutshell:

See that nice move from roughly 1980 onward? 

Guess what it correlates with?

Notice anything?  The so-called "acceleration" in that labor participation rate was driven by...... debt being accumulated in excess of growth in GDP.

Or, to put it more simply, by fake demand.

Demand that didn't really exist. Pressure on the production of goods and services and their prices that would not have existed were they to have been purchased with economic surplus.  That pressure grew more and more strident in the form of more and more debt per unit of GDP added, and after the 2000 recession we did on steroids, reaching an insane level of about $6 of new debt in the economy for every dollar of GDP increase in 2007 - right before it all went to hell.

That's where your "asset and price inflation" came from too.

What Robert wants to do is go back to that model.  But you can't get there from here, because there's nobody who can create credit at that rate any more.  The Federal Government is madly spinning its wheels in an attempt to do so, but it has failed to move the needle as the private economy remains mired in too much debt and everyone, including Reich, doesn't want to see the bad debt resolved since doing so will blow up all the Ponzi finance institutions..

So we have a consumer who still is told he "should" pay 3x-5x his income for a house "and we'll be happy to loan you the money at a little interest", instead of the house being 1x income and him being told he should save 10% of his income for ten years and then pay cash. Cars are now frequently 1x incomes, and people are told "just pay a little interest" (over 4 or 5 years!) instead of saving the price of one over some period - say, five years.  The cost of borrowing has been destroyed by active suppression thereby destroying the incentive for saving, which in turn means no capital formation.  And the latter has resulted in the roughly $6 trillion in savings being reduced an effective zero earnings rate from a blended rate that was probably in the general area of 3%, which is a direct whack on the economy of close to $200 billion in spending that is shifted from the prudent to the imprudent that are trying to maintain the Ponzi scheme!

When you look at the FRED employment chart what you see is that prior to the monstrous accumulation of leverage in the system the natural employment rate was about where is now! 

In fact, we are currently at the upper end of the historical range!

Why is this important?  Simple: Robert is still trying to have his 1990s, the Internet Bubble, or his 2000s, the housing bubble, back for another round of stupidity.

We can't have that back as there is no debt payment capacity expansion available in the economy to do so.

The underlying problem with Robert's (and the rest of the clowncar brigade) meme is that it's Keynesian Revisionism.  The simple fact of the matter is that those who claim belief in Keynes' economic theories are actively lying about what he called for.

Keynes called for running budget surpluses during good times and paying down the debt.  This stored surplus was then used during recessions to blunt their impact.  This is the premise of countercyclical economic policy at the government level in an attempt to "balance" natural economic cycles.

Ok Robert, when was that policy -- ever in the last 40 years -- practiced on the restrained side?

That's simple: NEVER.

Thus there's no surplus to spend.  Nor will there be in the future.  We know this because every time it's been claimed before it's been a lie.  Therefore we must presume that it will be a lie this time.

And Robert, let's hold you personally accountable for this to some degree, shall we?   After all, you were one of Clinton's secretaries (of Labor), right?  You don't think that just perhaps you should take responsibility for your blatant and outrageous perversion of Keynes' policies, do you?

Well, I do.

And despite your desire to bury the truth, the numbers and graphs are what they are.

Come back to the debate when you're willing to stop with the revisionism and actually propose something that accepts that which has been done in the past along with what is possible for the future, including an admission of your personal involvement in the mess we find ourselves in today. 

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User Info Robert Reich: More Ponzi Damnit! (UC Berzerkley?) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Themortgagedude
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I somehow feel bad that my mortgage is 1.25 times my family income and both my cars are paid for. It's people like me that are the problem. I need to spend some more.

On the contrary maybe I might be the answer. By limiting my debt coverage ratio I'm able to spend more money on goods and services that drive employment. I'm certainly not saving much outside my 201k so I must be driving employment.

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Jal
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I just got to quote the following truth over and over ... until it sinks in.
Quote:
Keynes called for running budget surpluses during good times and paying down the debt. This stored surplus was then used during recessions to blunt their impact. This is the premise of countercyclical economic policy at the government level in an attempt to "balance" natural economic cycles.


Robert Reich doesn't get everything wrong.
Quote:
The Occupier movement is still in its infancy in the United States, but it cannot be stopped. Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game – an economy that won’t respond, a democracy that won’t listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards.
Andyc
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"Keynes called for running budget surpluses during good times and paying down the debt. This stored surplus was then used during recessions to blunt their impact. This is the premise of countercyclical economic policy at the government level in an attempt to "balance" natural economic cycles."


I've read many times that Keynes said this but Ive never seen a specific quote from him on it.

If they adhered to the above Keynes would make some sense
Andyc
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"I'm certainly not saving much outside my 201k so I must be driving employment."


A 201k eh?


: )


Nicely put

Hey wait a minute, shouldn't that be a 200.5 k?

Xorbe
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> the housing bubble, back for another round of stupidity.

While at the gym yesterday, I noticed that the TV is *still* running ads for how to flip houses for $40000 profit, etc.
Raftermanfmj
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Quote:
Keynes called for running budget surpluses


Yea from my reading comparing Austrian to Keynesian economics this is technically true - but from all I've read it wasn't a serious tenet; just a palliative to make the hokum of Keynesian 'thought' easier for the skeptical to accept.

No modern Western government has ran a surplus and paid down debt to my knowledge. To .gov everywhere, money left at the end of the year simply means you are not trying hard enough to burn it.

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Financial
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Well said. Probably one of the best things to do would be to forgive student debt and then these people could afford to use the money to buy homes, cars etc. Then take the banks out of these future student loans and tie them into federal service payback of various types.

Do serious home loan modifications to see if people can afford to make payments if their homes are marked to market. The banks (shareholders, bondholders) need to lose on this one too.

And of course end the Fed and its role as the world's central banker. Let the government issue money directly sans the banking cartel.

Reason: spellcheck
Genesis
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Quote:
Well said. Probaby one of the best things to do would be to forgive student debt and then these people could afford to use the money to buy homes, cars etc. Then take the banks out of these future student loans and tie them into federal service payback of various types.

No. Those who took on too much debt should eat it and go bankrupt. Those who lent money they cannot collect should go bankrupt.

In the future the federal government should neither backstop or lend anything. If you make a bad loan you EAT IT. That's the disincentive to make bad loans - you lose your money.`

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Financial
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Too much predatory lending... The onus should be on the lenders for the most part..
Eaglewwit
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Financial, so you want to reward the imprudent at the expense of the prudent. **** You, foreclose on their houses and let me the prudent buy it for cash. It used to work that you were rewarded for being prudent and making good decisions.
Financial
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Eaglewwit, you sound like a bankster troll. That is what they are doing is reclaiming these assets at bargain prices after first doing predatory lending and then many examples of fraudulent servicing. The same thing has happened in the past to farms and is happening currently in Europe to various assets.

These led to popular uprisings like we are seeing today...

Mrbill
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With what money do they reclaim these assets, if you just defaulted on an underwater loan, or a loan without collateral (like student debt)? How could the banks possibly not lose money on the deal?

The banks *already* bought the house when they made the loan. And they bought at the peak. They're going to lose the most, if people stick them with the property and no more payments.

If you're not underwater but can't make the payments, just sell the house and be done with it.

If there's fraud, put them in jail. Separate issue.
Otiswild
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I want a 20% interest-rate mortgage so I can pay $40/sqft for a house that currently sells for $110/sqft.
Blueskies
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karl for POTUS.

Financial
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Taxpayer funded bailouts help with the 're-purchases'. Fraudulent servicing helps compound fees such as with complicit insurers which helps lead to foreclosures..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28....

WL Ross bought American Home from its bankrupt lender parent in 2008, and later added operations and servicing contracts from H&R Block Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. Servicers collect payments from homeowners, negotiate loan modifications and foreclose on properties when borrowers default.

In an Oct. 23, 2008, interview with Bloomberg Radio, Ross said American Home was the second-largest servicer of subprime mortgages in the U.S. and was “eager” to continue expanding. The company has servicing operations in Irvine, California, Jacksonville, Florida, and Pune, India, according to its website.

In his lawsuit, the Ohio Attorney General said American Home required borrowers to sign loan modifications, forbearance agreements and security-retention agreements that contain “illegal and unfair provisions and are unconscionably one- sided” in the company’s favor. American Home also provided “incompetent, inadequate and inefficient customer service,” lost documents and failed to respond to requests by borrowers for assistance, according to the complaint.
“The acts of some mortgage servicers have gone beyond the point of being negligent -- they have become predatory financial practices and in Ohio, they won’t be tolerated,” Cordray said in a statement on Nov. 5, when the lawsuit was filed.

http://firedoglake.com/2011/02/05/why-ar....

greengiant

February 5th, 2011 at 5:29 pm 24
“Out of curiosity I searched ‘HomeSolutions’ and ‘Blue Spruce’ and found that these entities have been buying foreclosures all over the country, typically for under $10,000 each, and many of them from Fannie & Freddie. Sometimes they sell the homes onward without even registering the title in their own names. Is this a fencing operation? It would be interesting to learn what connections these entities may have to major banks.”
Themortgagedude
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I think u can get your FRED chart back up to 65%. Make China play fair, remove the illegals, and cut unemployment comp to 26 weeks. You'll see that chart back to an all time high.

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Eaglewwit
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Financial what don't you understand about banking. I think MrBill explained it pretty well. What I am advocating for is to the banks detriment. It is what is best. The imprudent at the banks and home buyers both get hurt. That is how it should be. Read up.
Etz
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Q: Mr. WL Ross, how do you become a millionaire?

A: You start with a billion.

You'd have to look hard to find a more CORRUPT LOSER SCUMBAG!

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Mortgageguymn
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Financial - "Probably one of the best things to do would be to forgive student debt and then these people could afford to use the money to buy homes, cars etc. Then take the banks out of these future student loans and tie them into federal service payback of various types."

**** that. Federal service payback my ass. **** glorifying certain jobs. Do a job because you want to. If not, go out and earn income and pay some ****ing taxes like the rest of us. I'm sick of people trying to fly under the radar with just enough income so they can get their student loan forgiveness or home buyer tax credits or financial aid for their kid(s) or subsidy of their health care.
Bertdilbert
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Karl, nice catch on the employment rate of the population, first time I recall you mentioning it on the blog. Upping the employment rate adds to wage pressures which is code for inflationary. It also shrinks the pool of available job applicants, which means you pay more for less employee as a business owner.

Long run that hurts competitiveness of American companies and hence jobs ex fake demand.

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Morla
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EVERY ENTITY must be allowed to fail. Every single government guarantee, backstop, and bailout has lead to serious market dislocations and imbalances. The only constraint on the lending of money is RISK, without risk loans become absolutely indiscriminate, an infinite debt fountain that blows magnificent bubbles until the system inevitably has to face the reality that the debt isn't going to be paid. The debt not getting paid is a problem for modern economists but it shouldn't be, again bankruptcy and default are our only hope for a semblance of balance or restraint in the financial system.

Right now in student lending banks are making loans without a care in the world as to whether the students will be able to pay them, why does mainstream economics act like this is a good thing? Do they even have a theory why tuition is so high? Tuition is the elephant in the room showcasing the inevitable result of bubblenomic government policy, MASSIVE price distortions and unpayable, nondischargeable debt accumulation!

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Jbreedlove
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Financial wrote..
Probably one of the best things to do would be to forgive student debt and then these people could afford to use the money to buy homes, cars etc.


Pure forgiveness would continue too much of the same nonsense. Individuals who had high student debt with low paying jobs would likely continue to take out loans to spend beyond their means.

The best solution is to allow bankruptcy. Those individuals who really are unable to pay go through the pains of bankruptcy and only buy things they can save for over the next 7-10 years (estimate of the time credit will be refused to them for declaring bankruptcy). Those individuals who can still pay will continue to do so. Banks will become more prudent lenders.

You still have to get the government out of backstopping student loans. Even before the bankruptcy stuff got to where it is today the government was still guaranteeing money to the banks if the students ended up not paying.
Trades50
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Quote:
And the latter has resulted in the roughly $6 trillion in savings being reduced an effective zero earnings rate from a blended rate that was probably in the general area of 3%, which is a direct whack on the economy of close to $200 billion in spending that is shifted from the prudent to the imprudent that are trying to maintain the Ponzi scheme!


That's exactly right, the Keynesian theory followed the last several decades was altered to suit those in the government. Now their stuck with ever-increasing debt because government spending is outpacing income. On the other side you have Bernanke trying all sorts of economic tricks to bring back growth. CNBS was entertaining the Jack Welch and Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian stated we must realize the losses and share them. He said we needed growth and manufacturing. Then you had Welch saying the jobs aren't coming back due to efficiency and globalization (translation, cheap labor and globalized manufacturing/wage arbitration). "Have to get housing back,... but jobs are needed". They want it both ways.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Genesis
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Yep. I saw that this morning.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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